John1122 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Though it looks like the GGEM shifted west towards what the GFS had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is it my imagination or is the GFS subtly moving southeast with the Sunday system? I concur. Apps runner on 12z GFS. You know, the beginnings of the system are visible on the NAM...too far out to be accurate. However, it does appear south of the medium range models in the West. Might be something to watch @ 12z and 0z on the medium range models in terms of trends. Could just be the NAM doesn't have it in focus. But the 12z GFS is a tad East in terms of the eyeball test. Also, today's CPC ensembles are interesting. The PNA has snuck into positive territory and may have trouble going and staying negative. The AO is negative and forecast to stay there. The NAO is slightly negative and may go positive but that is less of a slam dunk positive long term. The first time this happened it was a false trend. We'll see this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone have the temps at 144 for the 12z Euro. Looks like bonecrushing cole. -30C in central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Afternoon thoughts: 1. I think it's fairly obvious that BIG time cold is on the way early next week. What is unknown is the amount of snow (mostly light outside the mountains) that can fall with the next two disturbances. 2. One thing that would not surprise me at all will be the potential for energy lobes coming all the way from the lakes into the southern apps with snow shower enhancement and upslope for northeast TN, sw VA, and eastern KY. 3. The latter part of next week looks VERY interesting to me. There is plenty of GFS ensemble support for a quick return of moisture just as the coldest air is leaving. 4. Models are notorious for moving the cold out too quickly in cases like this. Combine this with what should be plentiful moisture coming from the gulf and I put this time frame in the LIKELY category to produce wintry for someone in the TN Valley. Watch for future model runs to show the cold air retreating slower and the moisture coming in quicker. If you have never experienced snow falling with ground temps in the 20's it's really cool. Even pretty light snow covers everything almost immediately. So there you have it, my afternoon disco. Let's revisit this mid to late next week and see where we stand. Any discussion about these points and your own personal points of view and experiences are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone have the temps at 144 for the 12z Euro. Looks like bonecrushing cole. -30C in central Ohio. in Ohio...looks like about -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 in Ohio...looks like about -20 Looks like the 0F line goes pretty far south. Huntsville would have to be cold as well. TnWxNut, you have any secret Euro info . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2..BNA...7 TRI..,coldest numbeers i saw on the 7th.The GFS is colder.The QPF's went down again so more than likely without looking we did't see any drastic changes that favors the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Larry Cosgrove seems to think this storm will be massive and dig more than models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Larry Cosgrove seems to think this storm will be massive and dig more than models are showing Lets hope so,still coming through W/TN we need this to shift ,This is the storm for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 18z NAM really looks to be digging that wave out west. Looks south of the medium range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like the 0F line goes pretty far south. Huntsville would have to be cold as well. TnWxNut, you have any secret Euro info . Sorry, been watching bowl games with a buddy of mine and not paying attention to the weather. No, sorry Carvers........just 24 hour maps and some text info. Here is the text data off the 12z Euro MON 12Z 06-JAN -1.5 -8.5 1014 95 9 0.23 548 537 MON 18Z 06-JAN -1.6 -10.8 1018 55 42 0.02 539 525 TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.0 -11.5 1019 53 65 0.00 534 519 TUE 06Z 07-JAN -8.7 -17.6 1024 30 27 0.00 531 512 TUE 12Z 07-JAN -13.6 -22.6 1030 29 29 0.00 531 509 TUE 18Z 07-JAN -10.7 -21.4 1033 31 12 0.00 537 513 WED 00Z 08-JAN -11.8 -16.2 1035 35 21 0.00 547 520 WED 06Z 08-JAN -11.4 -13.7 1039 35 31 0.00 555 525 WED 12Z 08-JAN -10.9 -10.0 1041 33 12 0.00 561 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Afternoon thoughts: 2. One thing that would not surprise me at all will be the potential for energy lobes coming all the way from the lakes into the southern apps with snow shower enhancement and upslope for northeast TN, sw VA, and eastern KY. It has been common for much of KY and TN even back to the TN River to get minor accums in the wake of serious cold shots in the past. Often in the form of day after snow showers. Hope that holds this time as well. I would hate to be that cold and no snow at all. 3. The latter part of next week looks VERY interesting to me. There is plenty of GFS ensemble support for a quick return of moisture just as the coldest air is leaving. 4. Models are notorious for moving the cold out too quickly in cases like this. Combine this with what should be plentiful moisture coming from the gulf and I put this time frame in the LIKELY category to produce wintry for someone in the TN Valley. Watch for future model runs to show the cold air retreating slower and the moisture coming in quicker. If you have never experienced snow falling with ground temps in the 20's it's really cool. Even pretty light snow covers everything almost immediately. It will be interesting to watch it evolve. The pattern has been very progressive so an in and out cold shot was what I was expecting. However, today's 12Z GFS has most of the state below freezing for four full days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the above text data is for KTRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sun/Mon...18z GFS is SE of 0z. Apps runner now instead of a lakes cutter. While it may be cold chasing rain, that front appears to overtake the slp mid-state. For those of you with better "pay graphics," what do you see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sun/Mon...18z GFS is SE of 0z. Apps runner now instead of a lakes cutter. While it may be cold chasing rain, that front appears to overtake the slp mid-state. For those of you with better "pay graphics," what do you see . Euro esm has thermal issues,but it's not by much Edit:Either way i didn't see much difference still going through W/TN,needs to dig more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Clown map for the Sunday/Monday system. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like the GFS and what i see at the MSLP,,Precip,850 temp,it's all good when the heavy stuff starts in the W parts of the valley @h96.In mattter of fact looking at snow:water ratio 10:1 its giving the almost everyone but not the extreme S parts of the valley 2-4" and the ratio i believe should be maybe 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z GFS...@ 174 return flow brings frozen precip to west and middle TN/KY. As we have opined, this will have to be watched. Low level arctic air is tough to scour out of valley locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hopefully the warm up dont last long and stays seasonal as the,GFS did show signs up getting cold again late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 From Matt Coker (@StormCoker) on Twitter from 0z GFS: Valid 12z Tuesday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meteograms for Tuesday on 0z GFS: KTRI: Low: -3 High: 9 Lowest Wind Chill: -19 at 6z KTYS: Low: 1 High 16 Lowest Wind Chill: -7 KBNA: Low: 1 High: 14 Lowest Wind Chill: -15 KCHA: Low: 3 High: 20 Lowest Wind Chill: -7 KMEM: Low: 9 High 23 Lowest Wind Chill: -5 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z GFS meteogram for Crossville shows 4.2 inches of snow Sunday afternoon. High of 8 with a low of -5 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z GFS meteogram for Crossville shows 4.2 inches of snow Sunday afternoon. High of 8 with a low of -5 on Monday. Dangit I knew I was missing a station somewhere. I tried to get the major ones. But I noticed it looked colder out on the Plateau. Nice find. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I didn't know if you'd missed it or didn't know if Crossville got a meteogram, and it's going to be 8 Tuesday afternoon instead of on Monday, i made a mistake on the day. Dangit I knew I was missing a station somewhere. I tried to get the major ones. But I noticed it looked colder out on the Plateau. Nice find.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I didn't know if you'd missed it or didn't know if Crossville got a meteogram, and it's going to be 8 Tuesday afternoon instead of on Monday, i made a mistake on the day. Nope I didn't know they did but I was thinking of Crossville but didn't think they had a meteogram. That's great, it fills a big hole from Nashville to Knoxville, about right in the middle. I still think that these numbers could go down 2-4 more degrees though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro looks colder and a shift,hard to tell what the outcome would be with these free maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro looks colder and a shift,hard to tell what the outcome would be with these free maps It's getting closer to the GFS, last night it was in S. Indiana with the center of the low, NE KY at the same frame tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's getting closer to the GFS, last night it was in S. Indiana with the center of the low, NE KY at the same frame tonight. Didn't get any stronger,text is showing .54 qpf's not all sn about the same as the last run,believe it probably got a little warmer looking at the heights when i said it was colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 6z GFS was a colder run and had more backside moisture to work with. The temp drop we will experience will be 50-60 degrees which is something unheard of around here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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