jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro esm arent as cold as the Deterministic at the 2m's..850's are still at least -20=-30 throughout the valley around the 6-7th.Either way it's gonna get cold if the Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 MRX is apparently ignoring the Euro completely with their forecast package. JKL said they usually would count completely on the Euro but decided to blend with the GFS because the Euro solution is so extreme. The forecast difference is still vast between the neighboring offices. In Jellico, Kentucky the high for next Monday is predicted to be 26 degrees with snow. 10 feet away in Jellico, Tennessee the high is predicted to be 46 degrees with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Those guys always seem to be so reluctant to even discuss the possibility of winter weather....I did notice one of the local TV guys at least mentioned it as a potential really cold threat for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Didn't see anyone post the ridiculous clown map of the Euro...this is what it looks like @162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Didn't see anyone post the ridiculous clown map of the Euro...this is what it looks like @162 Thanks for sharing Burger. We have been all over the threat, talking a lot via pm, but first we have to see if this little Jan 2nd system can surprise a few in the TN Valley. Thanks for taking the time to post in our subforum, hope you guys can get in on wintry action soon! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Didn't see anyone post the ridiculous clown map of the Euro...this is what it looks like @162 I'll echo others, thanks for posting that, Burger. Folks in middle and west Tennessee should be pretty excited about the 12z run of the Euro. However, things have been so fluid in the model world...I think there will be several solutions before it hones in on one. Seems like the western two thirds of the state have been where the models want to go w/ winter wx. Hope somebody cashes in. I may try to set the alarm and watch tonight's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'll echo others, thanks for posting that, Burger. Folks in middle and west Tennessee should be pretty excited about the 12z run of the Euro. However, things have been so fluid in the model world...I think there will be several solutions before it hones in on one. Seems like the western two thirds of the state have been where the models want to go w/ winter wx. Hope somebody cashes in. I may try to set the alarm and watch tonight's Euro.you could not be more night and day with the gfs and euro for 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 While we wait for the 0z runs to roll in Robert posted a lengthy and in depth on WxSouth in the public section. It is free, all you have to do is sign in or sign up. He basically talks about two different directions the pattern could go into January. The 1st one would be a repeat of a November like pattern and the 2nd would be more like what today's Euro showed with the huge eastern trough and a prolonged western/Alaskan ridging with the AO/NAO going negative. Well worth the effort to sign up for if you haven't already. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 nice little snow (widespread 1 inch amounts) on the 0z GFS for much of TN east of Clarksville, isolated amounts of 2 inches in ne TN. Hope we can trend a bit wetter with more qpf, but I would be happy with this, especially if it were the "appetizer" ahead of a bigger system late weekend/early next week..... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it keeps trending to more QPF, lets just hope it doesn't trend warmer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the 0z GFS may be bringing the cold out past day 5/6 into the northern Plains/Rockies. Question is.............does it have eyes on the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the 0z GFS may be bringing the cold out past day 5/6 into the northern Plains/Rockies. Question is.............does it have eyes on the southeast? before truncation...threat is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml If you look at the 500 anoms.i'd buy into the cold coming east what the Euro is showing,extreme as the Euro,i doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 HUGE differences between the Euro and GFS toward day 6/7. The Euro at 12z brought the cold and the 0z GFS keeps it mostly northwest, even though it does bleed into TN through 180 and beyond. The biggest difference though is the lack of a storm blowing up on the arctic front. It would be nice for the Euro to kick the GFS's butt this time. I am ready for Dr. NO to become Dr. Yes. At some point, it's skill has to win out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml If you look at the 500 anoms.i'd buy into the cold coming east what the Euro is showing,extreme as the Euro,i doubt it Yeah, the Euro accomplishes placing the vortex in Illinois by having a storm blow up that equates to a Cat 1 hurricane that yanks all the cold air in on top of all the snowcover it lays down. Highly unlikely, but I just want it cold enough to snow. I am not buying the GFS showing just light precip with the cold air coming past 144. I can certainly see the threat that others can see around that time frame being bigger than modeled on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah, the Euro accomplishes placing the vortex in Illinois by having a storm blow up that equates to a Cat 1 hurricane that yanks all the cold air in on top of all the snowcover it lays down. Highly unlikely, but I just want it cold enough to snow. I am not buying the GFS showing just light precip with the cold air coming past 144. I can certainly see the threat that others can see around that time frame being bigger than modeled on the 0z GFS. Warm water of the NE coast though per Robert, right. Might not be cat 1...but could be a big storm. Actually, would like to see it it pop the NAO negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, the GFS is back to depicting a promising pattern for the TN Valley. Plenty of winter wx threats. Deltadog made a good point in the SE region pattern discussion. Basically said a pattern change is in the works and thus causing the models to produce a multitude of solutions - paraphrasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The UKMET is a lot slower and a great track. East Texas at hour 72 to central/south GA by hour 96. We can only hope it's that slow and takes that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Somebody may need to check the maps for me. What I thought was the 0Z UKMET may have been yesterday's. I gotta get some shut eye! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 0z GGEM is on the cold train, not as intense as the 12z Euro but pretty dang cold. PV is all up in the U.S. mix by hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lawdy mercy the 0z Euro does it again. The 850 temp anomalies are -28 across TN at hour 168. I'm not a pattern analysis guy, and I've had a few margaritas tonight, but that looks cold to me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lawdy mercy the 0z Euro does it again. The 850 temp anomalies are -28 across TN at hour 168. I'm not a pattern analysis guy, and I've had a few margaritas tonight, but that looks cold to me lol. eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro is amazing for you guys. The whole state does pretty well (though Chattanooga gets only ~2") and the northwestern part of the state gets a foot. The Euro has been pretty consistent about it, too, so I think there's something to it. It's a very potent storm that bombs out to 984 mb over north-central North Carolina, screaming northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro is amazing for you guys. The whole state does pretty well (though Chattanooga gets only ~2") and the northwestern part of the state gets a foot. The Euro has been pretty consistent about it, too, so I think there's something to it. It's a very potent storm that bombs out to 984 mb over north-central North Carolina, screaming northward. snow totals for knox area? dont have access to wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I took a quick glance at the Canadian and it is also advertising the vodka cold scenario that the Euro has shown. It gets the PV all the way down to the Wisconsin/Great Lakes region! But it doesn't stick around long as shoots northeast but by 240 there is another significant trough on its heels with a lot of precip coming out of the gulf. Hour 168: Hour 180: Hour 240: January could be a memorable one if all the cards play right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 MRX acknowledges the Euro but disregards it in favor of the GFS. They are kinda going for it on the Thursday system though. Still forecasting a fairly long period of rain but says even advisory criteria will be possible in the valley. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWSWILL BE PRODUCING FAIRLY DECENT SNOWFALLS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACINGSLOPES. ALSO...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVELINSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SNOWS EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEY. WARNINGCRITERIA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OFSOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SUCH AS HIGH KNOB. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS AREPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU...CENTRAL VALLEY...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND CHEROKEE/CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTHCAROLINA. WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO.FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH RIDGING OVERTHE AREA WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE GREATLY. THE ECMWFSHOWS VERY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTICSTATES PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFSSHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL TRENDTOWARD THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 JKL, generally a fan of the Euro, seeing things as "Concerning" due to the Euro's consistency. MODELS REALLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY AND CONFIDENCE TANKS. THE ECMWFREMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A GOOD SNOW STORM SUNDAY ANDMONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK LIKE WE HAVE NOT SEEN HERE IN20 YEARS OR MORE. HOWEVER...THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT INFORECASTING JUST A LITTLE SNOW ON SUNDAY WHILE KEEPING THE CORE OFTHE ARCTIC COLD OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORELOGICAL AND CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL SHOWNBY FOUR CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS NOTEWORTHY AND CONCERNING.AS SUCH...HAVE GIVEN THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE WEIGHT THANUSUAL IN THE MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTSIN A SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONSPOSSIBLE...THEN DECREASING SNOW CHANCES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELLBELOW NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A/SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR/ IN THE HAZARDOUSWEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Interesting that the Euro and CMC show some blocking in the Atlantic vs the GFS....... which appears to split the vortex and send a piece of it northeast instead of sending the trough fully down into the east. Maybe the Euro has the right idea for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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