WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow RGEM hammers NENJ but mixes NYC. Unlikely tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS south but no area of heavier snow at all, just a light 1-2" with more over LI and NE....exactly my thinkibg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow RGEM hammers NENJ but mixes NYC. Unlikely tho RGEM run looks a bit suspect. GFS so far looks status-quo compared to 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS is definitely warmer than 18z. Not sure why I'm the only one that sees that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RGEM run looks a bit suspect. GFS so far looks status-quo compared to 18z run The RGEM is much like the NAM pre-upgrade days, not great beyond 36 and increasingly bad beyond 42, decent from 30-36 and very good inside 30. I think the GFS/Euro blend works right now until I see the Euro or GFS make a big move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm not entirely sure about this one. This clipper seems almost as predictable as a Norlun trough. I would be extremely cautious about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like this system may fall just short, which is what I feared. Looks ok for those N&W of the metro, I think they could pick up 2-4". It's tough for us to get hit with a redeveloping clipper and it always favors those further north so this is no surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'll be happy with a couple inches to freshen up yesterday's snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like this system may fall just short, which is what I feared. Looks ok for those N&W of the metro, I think they could pick up 2-4". It's tough for us to get hit with a redeveloping clipper and it always favors those further north so this is no surprise to me. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Let's keep in mind that clippers RARELY give us more than an inch or two...ever ! Sometimes Long Island a bit more, as well as CT and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Let's keep in mind that clippers RARELY give us more than an inch or two...ever ! Sometimes Long Island a bit more, as well as CT and NE I remember when clippers use to blow up and give the area a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I remember when clippers use to blow up and give the area a lot of snow. I remember a rule about having to be 100 miles north of the clipper to get the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow the second wave coming through has VERY heavy snow close to Baltimore....based on sim reflectivity of hi res nam....3"/hour+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Let's keep in mind that clippers RARELY give us more than an inch or two...ever ! Sometimes Long Island a bit more, as well as CT and NE This is a very fickle setup, the low has to go south of Long Island, and the snow has to regenerate as it hits the Atlantic. If the low tracks over Long Island or the energy is too disjointed aloft, we're looking at a minor at best event. Yet another storm that will come down to the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Let's keep in mind that clippers RARELY give us more than an inch or two...ever ! Sometimes Long Island a bit more, as well as CT and NE This was a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This was a clipper I remember the January 2004 clipper very well-it dumped almost 8" of snow at my house with 10 degree temperatures. Clippers can do well here, when they behave. The Atlantic moisture can make it very potent, since clippers usually have strong upper air energy to go with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Let's keep in mind that clippers RARELY give us more than an inch or two...ever ! Sometimes Long Island a bit more, as well as CT and NE This was a clipper I know it...which is why I said RARELY....like last year's inverted trough event....rare, but possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I know it...which is why I said RARELY....like last year's inverted trough event....rare, but possible I think if this goes south of our latitude it will do well here. The Atlantic is wide open and that is some potent 500mb energy to spin up some nice snows for us through New England. But it has to go south of our latitude. An RGEM solution would be game over unless well north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro is really weak with the clipper. It has 2 waves while the other models also have 2 waves but they fizzle out the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 How much QPF from the 1st wave? 0.1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 How much QPF from the 1st wave? 0.1? Maybe more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 06z Nam is nice .50+ city N/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 06z Gfs has the entire tri-state with .25, CNJ through NYC, LI Northwards with a .5 swath. Will be an interesting few runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 06Z RGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 06Z RGEM total snow rgem_total_snow.jpg Nice, looks like all models are in the 2-4" camp fom about rt.78 or so north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 While yesterday we were discussing ratios , it seems that the NAM RGEM and GFS agree From the City South and East across Long Island this goes over to rain . 850`s are never warmer than Minus 3 , but there is some mid level warming and this is NOT all snow . Once N of 78 and W of the TPKE , it is , but S and E of there , theres a change ..... I still think the city and N shore of Long Island can get 2 to 3 , but this was Don S point yesterday and he saw this when the model didn't . Still the 12z suite to get through , but this is what the models went to at 18z an 0z However just NW into, NWNJ Westchester and SCT at least 4 inches are likely , if this is right . The Euro has NO RAIN .and is further S but only prints out 1 -2 inches of snow across the entire area , so take you r pick which one would you would like to verify . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mt holly going 2-4 from Monmouth county north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Upton going 2-4 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 While yesterday we were discussing ratios , it seems that the NAM RGEM and GFS agree From the City South and East across Long Island this goes over to rain . 850`s are never warmer than Minus 3 , but there is some mid level warming and this is NOT all snow . Once N of 78 and W of the TPKE , it is , but S and E of there , theres a change ..... I still think the city and N shore of Long Island can get 2 to 3 , but this was Don S point yesterday and he saw this when the model didn't . Still the 12z suite to get through , but this is what the models went to at 18z an 0z However just NW into, NWNJ Westchester and SCT at least 4 inches are likely , if this is right . The Euro has NO RAIN .and is further S but only prints out 1 -2 inches of snow across the entire area , so take you r pick which one would you would like to verify . A bit OT but if this does again turn to rain for LI looks looks our last hope for any snow of signifigance would be next week but even that looks more ice than anything. For LI if they're is not sufficient blocking events 9/10 times will end up like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice to see that the 03z SREF were once again pretty amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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