REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 gfs1.png GFS2.png looks like LI at 48 gets some pretty heavy snowfall for a brief period. not bad. these little storms are starting to add up john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 looks like LI at 48 gets some pretty heavy snowfall for a brief period. not bad. these little storms are starting to add up john Looks like there's a small 0.25"+ area in 6 hours right by us. I'd say 3-5" are possible in a short period if it stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 1st round looks like .4 for the 1st. The second one is .10. So prob snow showers. But round 1 looks like a 4 inch storm from NENJ NNJ NYC SCT onto LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Looks like there's a small 0.25"+ area in 6 hours right by us. I'd say 3-5" are possible in a short period if it stays all snow. don't think BL issues will be prevalent with this storm. I think this will come to where and how long the best banding sets up. from what I see as of now looks like it is going to be the coastal areas. I want to see some more HI-RES model runs before I get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Haven't look at any models yet just curious what time Frame Tuesday were lookin At for start/end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 don't think BL issues will be prevalent with this storm. I think this will come to where and how long the best banding sets up. from what I see as of now looks like it is going to be the coastal areas. I want to see some more HI-RES model runs before I get excitedWhy do you not think BL issues will be a concern? I would actually argue that BL temps will be the primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 upton has all snow for here...with 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Upton Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 upton has all snow for here...with 1-2 inches Yea I went from rain and 26 to snow and 25 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Why do you not think BL issues will be a concern? I would actually argue that BL temps will be the primary concern.The low is trending further south with more explosive cyclogenesis, limiting boundary layer warming. As currently modeled the track is south of Long Island, which is good for the metro. We also have a weak low and antecedent cold with -20C 850s just to our north tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Some local media forecasters better check the computer...WALK radio is running a forecast for Tuesday of 40 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 NWS had me at 1-3, TWC says 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 looks like LI at 48 gets some pretty heavy snowfall for a brief period. not bad. these little storms are starting to add up john The little storms are definitely adding up even where I am in Southern Brooklyn. I've had 6" this December with 3.5" yesterday, 2" on 12/10, and 0.5" in 12/8...my parents' place in Dobbs Ferry has about a foot on the season after 7" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The little storms are definitely adding up even where I am in Southern Brooklyn. I've had 6" this December with 3.5" yesterday, 2" on 12/10, and 0.5" in 12/8...my parents' place in Dobbs Ferry has about a foot on the season after 7" last night. if not for the totals being that high cumulatively, just seeing accumulating snow period this month three times its been a great experience thus far this winter season. im still looking forward to what 2014 has in store ( not for this thread but im personally looking forward to it ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 NWS had me at 1-3, TWC says 3-5 2-4 is probably a good bet for us right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nam is the furthest south with it so far The NAM is ALWAYS too far south with those inverted trof features in the range beyond 36-48 as we've seen a few times recent winters, also overdoes them alot too, interesting to see alot of support for it from other models, this is one of the rarer setups where it may come to frution for the metro but likely more Suffolk county and ERN CT than NYC, there is some resemblance in that inverted feature to 2/25/90. The CIPS analogs are giving us hope this event may occur, the top 2 right now are 1/17/85 and 12/30/93...I think most remember the 93 event on 12/29...the 1/17/85 event gave LGA 3.7 inches, JFK 5.9 and EWR 3.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The NAM is ALWAYS too far south with those inverted trof features in the range beyond 36-48 as we've seen a few times recent winters, also overdoes them alot too, interesting to see alot of support for it from other models, this is one of the rarer setups where it may come to frution for the metro but likely more Suffolk county and ERN CT than NYC, there is some resemblance in that inverted feature to 2/25/90. The CIPS analogs are giving us hope this event may occur, the top 2 right now are 1/17/85 and 12/30/93...I think most remember the 93 event on 12/29...the 1/17/85 event gave LGA 3.7 inches, JFK 5.9 and EWR 3.3 Hey man , off topic .... the Set up for next Sun - Mon on both the Euro and GFS continues to trend east ,and is really starting to look interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Hey man , off topic .... the Set up for next Sun - Mon on both the Euro and GFS continues to trend east ,and is really starting to look interesting . There are some Mets down in the MA and SE starting to get excited about that event, that shows you right there if anything we may need to be more on the lookout for suppression with that event that anything...the fact there are thicknesses below 504 close by in S Canada likely means the Euro is way to north right now on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 There are some Mets down in the MA and SE starting to get excited about that event, that shows you right there if anything we may need to be more on the lookout for suppression with that event that anything...the fact there are thicknesses below 504 close by in S Canada likely means the Euro is way to north right now on it. Hmmmmm .. Almost a plus 2 SD pos NAO , argues for enough ridging . I will take the threat to the other thread , sorry guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 HPC says the jackpot is CT - not much down here except for LI http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_9iewbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The NAM is ALWAYS too far south with those inverted trof features in the range beyond 36-48 as we've seen a few times recent winters, also overdoes them alot too, interesting to see alot of support for it from other models, this is one of the rarer setups where it may come to frution for the metro but likely more Suffolk county and ERN CT than NYC, there is some resemblance in that inverted feature to 2/25/90. The CIPS analogs are giving us hope this event may occur, the top 2 right now are 1/17/85 and 12/30/93...I think most remember the 93 event on 12/29...the 1/17/85 event gave LGA 3.7 inches, JFK 5.9 and EWR 3.3The only problem is that the areas most likely to be affected by a Norlun are also where we could boundary layer problems...I think mixing is limited to eastern LI, Jersey shore and SE CT but could be problematic there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The NAM is ALWAYS too far south with those inverted trof features in the range beyond 36-48 as we've seen a few times recent winters, also overdoes them alot too, interesting to see alot of support for it from other models, this is one of the rarer setups where it may come to frution for the metro but likely more Suffolk county and ERN CT than NYC, there is some resemblance in that inverted feature to 2/25/90. The CIPS analogs are giving us hope this event may occur, the top 2 right now are 1/17/85 and 12/30/93...I think most remember the 93 event on 12/29...the 1/17/85 event gave LGA 3.7 inches, JFK 5.9 and EWR 3.3 Didn't the NAM score well with the inverted trof last year. ( I think it was its only score) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So any guesstimates as to how well western nassau county does? I will glady take 2 to 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So any guesstimates as to how well western nassau county does? I will glady take 2 to 4 inches Need to see tonight's models and trends it won't take a big north shift to hose most of the area, at the same time we are close to a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Need to see tonight's models and trends it won't take a big north shift to hose most of the area, at the same time we are close to a solid hit a few miles in this situation makes all the difference right now i would watch for the mountains to eat alot of the precip up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 a few miles in this situation makes all the difference right now i would watch for the mountains to eat alot of the precip up and this something that usually happens so that is a very valid point my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 a few miles in this situation makes all the difference right now i would watch for the mountains to eat alot of the precip up If the system approaches more from the WSW as a lot of models show the terrain is much less of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 a few miles in this situation makes all the difference right now i would watch for the mountains to eat alot of the precip up The moisture from the Atlantic will regenerate the precip as it comes through our area. We need to just hope that it doesn't trend north last-minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The moisture from the Atlantic will regenerate the precip as it comes through our area. We need to just hope that it doesn't trend north last-minute. yea a trend north and our friends to the north will bask in this while we take a bath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 21z SREFs have 0.25"+ of liquid from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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