Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 20 out of 20 gefs members have the storm and the euro op does not. There is a gun to your head and you must bet your life savings on one or the other. What do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 20 out of 20 gefs members have the storm and the euro op does not. There is a gun to your head and you must bet your life savings on one or the other. What do you do? What about the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 20 out of 20 gefs members have the storm and the euro op does not. There is a gun to your head and you must bet your life savings on one or the other. What do you do? POP QUIZ HOTSHOT! Seems like a good bet we'll see something coming out of the sky. Whether it's not anything of note or 2-4 inches remains to be seen I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What about the Euro ensembles?[/quote There like 50+ of them and I don't have access to ind members. All I have is some jacked up rainbow chart that I refuse to learn to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah, the ensembles have been in love with this one from day one. I keep forgetting that. Here is a visual for those who haven't seen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013 VALID 00Z MON DEC 09 2013 - 00Z THU DEC 12 2013 DAY 2... THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW ON TUES WILL OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS BUT NOTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A CLIPPER LIKE FEATURE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HEAD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES... ESPECIALLY OF SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES INTO THE REGION... EXPECT ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE HEAVY SNOWFALL. FINALLY... THE THREAT FOR LIGHT ICING AND A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TN VLY TO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION... AS YET A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CLIP THE REGION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION... AS THE GFS DEPICTS THE MOST BACKING AND MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD SECTOR... WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE MOST SUPPRESSED. WPC WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS OF A UKMET/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUES MORNING OF A FEW INCHES ARE AD THE DC/BAL/PHI AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I need to make sure I can get out of the house before I root for another event. DCA and east please be obliged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 day2_psnow_gt_0412-8-13.gif Well, hello there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD500 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013VALID 00Z MON DEC 09 2013 - 00Z THU DEC 12 2013DAY 2...THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW ON TUES WILL OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS BUTNOTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A CLIPPER LIKEFEATURE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HEAD TOWARD THEUPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... HEAVY LAKEEFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES... ESPECIALLYOF SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVESINTO THE REGION... EXPECT ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERSACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... THETRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPEHEAVY SNOWFALL. FINALLY... THE THREAT FOR LIGHT ICING AND A NARROWBAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TN VLY TO THE NRNMID-ATL REGION... AS YET A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TOCLIP THE REGION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THEMOISTURE ADVECTION... AS THE GFS DEPICTS THE MOST BACKING ANDMOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD SECTOR... WHILE THEECMWF AND NAM ARE MOST SUPPRESSED. WPC WENT WITH SOMETHING INBETWEEN OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS OF A UKMET/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIASCORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUESMORNING OF A FEW INCHES ARE AD THE DC/BAL/PHI AREAS. they were referring to the 12Z NAM being more suppressed because the 18Z was wetter than the 12z and 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 While Tuesday could be a nice little event, the "potential" Day 6-8 event has a much better potential to be a more significant even if the pieces align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 While Tuesday could be a nice little event, the "potential" Day 6-8 event has a much better potential to be a more significant even if the pieces align. I always prefer to focus on the next event simply because we seem to lose events left and right during our winters and the more time = more chances to lose it just the way I think about threats not necessarily any better or correct than the next person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 While Tuesday could be a nice little event, the "potential" Day 6-8 event has a much better potential to be a more significant even if the pieces align. I think that event is pretty unlikely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think that event is pretty unlikely... I totally agree, just saying it has more a better chance of being a large event, you have a strong HP being modeled, with a pretty potent shortwave ejecting out of the west. I am excited for Tuesday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For Tuesday, this is pretty telling http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/f48.html 100% consensus across the board for a small event...Could the EURO miss 2x in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 21z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 21z SREFs Ha, beat me to it Yoda. Stronger signal on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Pretty bullish look by the SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think that event is pretty unlikely...I don't know how anyone can say something a week.out is not likely.. we haven't gotten nearly enough info to make any judgement calls still 168-192 hrs away. Geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know how anyone can say something a week.out is not likely.. we haven't gotten nearly enough info to make any judgement calls still 168-192 hrs away. Geesh It's not a likely outcome...he's not saying it won't happen he's saying it's unlikely...which I'm sure many would agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's not a likely outcome...he's not saying it won't happen he's saying it's unlikely...which I'm sure many would agree with. I would go with snow, he knows his shiat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's not a likely outcome...he's not saying it won't happen he's saying it's unlikely...which I'm sure many would agree with.I understand I just think its too far away to say its unlikely ecspecially since the models were so far off today's storm. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Let's just stay in WSW from now till Wednesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Let's just stay in WSW from now till Wednesday AM. I still want at least one storm mode this winter or it is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Let's just stay in WSW from now till Wednesday AM.now I like that idea:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I understand I just think its too far away to say its unlikely ecspecially since the models were so far off today's storm. That's all Fair enough. still, same could be said for your point of view saying it's not unlikely too far out to say that as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I still want at least one storm mode this winter or it is a bust. We'll need an storm that affects like 80% of the board for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Let's just stay in WSW from now till Wednesday AM. And liberal leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 And liberal leave I need a full closing. Liberal leave does me no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Fair enough. still, same could be said for your point of view saying it's not unlikely too far out to say that as well..touche. . It's all good bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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