TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How's ik look for interior southeast ma. Taunton Attleboro area? Accumulating snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 System is not wound up allowing for colder solution it seems. I do think BOS sees a nice thump, but a 1002mb low going into DET, transferring to a 1010mb low going over SE Mass would scare me on the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro seems a little less strung out with the vorticity and is more of a s/w punch pushing into Ontario from Detroit. Heighta a little lower on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How's ik look for interior southeast ma. Taunton Attleboro area? Accumulating snows? most likely a couple/few inches..then quick flip to sleet/ice then rain. then done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 BOS -4C at 925mb at 12z Monday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Defintely below freezing at h85, but with that easterly fetch in the lower levels it doesn't sit well with me. I think metrowest is solid in that set up through 12z...was more referring to BOS itself. BOS is still 32F at 12z with like -7C 900mb temps. Its cold. Its probably ripping snow...or maybe just flipping to sleet if anything. They will warm quickly on easterly deeper layer fetch, but if a few hundred feet above their head is like 20F...its tough to rain...ala 12/16/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 most likely a couple/few inches..then quick flip to sleet/ice then rain. then done. Thanks...... Would love to see 3 or so inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 BOS is still 32F at 12z with like -7C 900mb temps. Its cold. Its probably ripping snow...or maybe just flipping to sleet if anything. They will warm quickly on easterly deeper layer fetch, but if a few hundred feet above their head is like 20F...its tough to rain...ala 12/16/07. I only have h92 data out to 96. That's really cold. Potent s/w near DET at h120...definitely keeping this thing more consolidated, which SNE needs for this to be mainly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thanks...... Would love to see 3 or so inches if things trend toward euro, think that's a fair/reasonable expectation for this time frame. really probably same general thing across most of SE MA/RI/CT away from the immediate shore. we'll see how things evolve over the next few days. we'll have to watch the HP placement too and make sure it doesn't sneak eastward much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'll take the Euro please! Nice and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 if things trend toward euro, think that's a fair/reasonable expectation for this time frame. really probably same general thing across most of SE MA/RI/CT away from the immediate shore. we'll see how things evolve over the next few days. we'll have to watch the HP placement too and make sure it doesn't sneak eastward much more. Yup not going to set the bar unreasonably high. And yeah, this area is a pretty good spot if things fall just right, but like you said about the high pressure it won't take much to screw this up. Maybe an inch or so Saturday morning as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 if things trend toward euro, think that's a fair/reasonable expectation for this time frame. really probably same general thing across most of SE MA/RI/CT away from the immediate shore. we'll see how things evolve over the next few days. we'll have to watch the HP placement too and make sure it doesn't sneak eastward much more. This system seems to have moved very little on guidance over the past 2 days despite it being 6 days out (and now 5 days out today). You'd expect more fluctuation normally. Part of me doesn't rest overly easy because of that. I'm almost expecting to see a huge swing on one of these suites. I'd probably feel better about if it weren't a fast flow with the energy rounding the base of the Rockies. The energy responsible for this whole thing was analyzed at 12z up in the Yukon Territory...there's definitely a lot of time and real estate for this to traverse before next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Its that vortex over west of Hudson Bay, Canada that screws us up with the primary heading into Detroit rather than BUF. so the secondary strengthens over the ocean east of DE. The vortex comes down from northern Canada and phases with our disturbance allowing the primary to cut into the Great Lakes. However it appears that the models are edging towards a weaker primary and stronger coastal low. Let's see what the next several EURO runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This system seems to have moved very little on guidance over the past 2 days despite it being 6 days out (and now 5 days out today). You'd expect more fluctuation normally. Part of me doesn't rest overly easy because of that. I'm almost expecting to see a huge swing on one of these suites. I'd probably feel better about if it weren't a fast flow with the energy rounding the base of the Rockies. The energy responsible for this whole thing was analyzed at 12z up in the Yukon Territory...there's definitely a lot of time and real estate for this to traverse before next week. Its funny because the energy that makes this disturbance head into the Great Lakes is actually in far northern Canada through 72 hours before dropping southward through the Canadian Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What's become apparent today is models realizing depth of cold..and how we were discussing earlier..you aren't going to scour out cold anywhere easily..Interior seems likely to not sniff above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What's become apparent today is models realizing depth of cold..and how we were discussing earlier..you aren't going to scour out cold anywhere easily..Interior seems likely to not sniff above freezing I don't think that has anything to do with it. The issue is with the synoptics and how the models handle the storm track and any confluence to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 MEX guidance. for NEWBIES: 1=1-2, 2=2-4, 4=4-6, 6=6-9, 8=8+ ORH/BED/BAF/BVY/BDL/CON/AUG/PWM/SFM: 4 BOS/EWB/PVD/BTV: 2 Some spots have a bit extra beyond the period. Dryslot looks to be in today's jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 some pretty good numbers would love for it to verify MEX guidance. for NEWBIES: 1=1-2, 2=2-4, 4=4-6, 6=6-9, 8=8+ ORH/BED/BAF/BVY/BDL/CON/AUG/PWM/SFM: 4 BOS/EWB/PVD/BTV: 2 Some spots have a bit extra beyond the period. Dryslot looks to be in today's jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 MEX guidance. for NEWBIES: 1=1-2, 2=2-4, 4=4-6, 6=6-9, 8=8+ ORH/BED/BAF/BVY/BDL/CON/AUG/PWM/SFM: 4 BOS/EWB/PVD/BTV: 2 Some spots have a bit extra beyond the period. Dryslot looks to be in today's jackpot. Looks like LCI/Laconia, NH has the best numbers on the MEX with a 4 then a 1. Sounds about as SWFE climo as you can get with the Lakes region of NH taking it home. Northern spots like BTV/MPV/HIE/BML do a 2 then a 1. Its actually amazing how much those MEX values make sense with the climo... 3-6" BTV/MPV/HIE/BML to the north, with 5-8" in the Lakes region of NH up through the Maine foothills...and 2-4" coastal SNE with 4-6" interior SNE. That's like pulled out of the SWFE book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looking like a very wintery event for this area up through S. Vt. I'm a fan of SWFE, the lower elevations around here are less subject to getting downsloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think this run's ugly myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The speed of the flow may help us if this keeps up as modeled. ANyways we near BOS almost dryslot on the euro by the time we furnace aloft and near ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think this run's ugly myself... 3 accumulating snow events with an arctic outbreak, I will take it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think this run's ugly myself... Well if you are trying to get an all snow event or a coastal storm...this is the wrong pattern. It's a pretty textbook pattern for the traditional overrunning transition events we saw during 2007/2008 and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think this run's ugly myself... What part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The CONUS furnace comes by D10 but damn it's cold north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The speed of the flow may help us if this keeps up as modeled. ANyways we near BOS almost dryslot on the euro by the time we furnace aloft and near ground level. We'd have snow otg after it's all over . I'll take that any day of the week pre 12/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The CONUS furnace comes by D10 but damn it's cold north of the border. Yeah, this run isn't as good as 00z for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What part? The part in front of the mirror... heh... No it's the whole vibe of the thing, where get smacked in the face with deep cold and the pattern et el blithely takes lows west of you. Cutter-freeze pattern, that we just get kinda sorta lucky for happening to have a lead-side polar high; otherwise, this is a big POS, objectively. Then, the extended retros the EPO ridging, flattens the flow, retreats continental cold into higher Canada, gets us above 0C at 850. As Scott would say, pull the shades and ignore he weather until further notice on this run. ...that is, after the POS early next week. Buuuut, that's just my take. Maybe this is what folks really want, I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looking like a very wintery event for this area up through S. Vt. I'm a fan of SWFE, the lower elevations around here are less subject to getting downsloped. This. Nice to be nearly on par with our elevated friends. You can pretty much write down SWFE event totals here... If we're really lucky we can dryslot shortly after the warm air takes control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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