It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Haven't looked as closely to the models, but it appears this CAD event is pretty weak sauce. Appears most places will start out as snow then just flip to rain with warm low levels (at least in SNE and even SNH). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Haven't looked as closely to the models, but it appears this CAD event is pretty weak sauce. Appears most places will start out as snow then just flip to rain with warm low levels (at least in SNE and even SNH). Isn't the opposite true? The cold is more impressive in the low levels..hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Isn't the opposite true? The cold is more impressive in the low levels..hmmmm Most places outside of 128 will be below 32 for this storm. I think the CAD signal is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 At the tail end it may end as drizzle or something, at BED and LWM ,but the cold will not be scoured out easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Most places outside of 128 will be below 32 for this storm. I think the CAD signal is great. KTAN is warm at low levels at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 KASH will also flip to rain later in period. They will have a better shot at snow for a longer period before it flips however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Isn't the opposite true? The cold is more impressive in the low levels..hmmmm Well I guess it depends on where you are. I'm looking more at southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Haven't looked as closely to the models, but it appears this CAD event is pretty weak sauce. Appears most places will start out as snow then just flip to rain with warm low levels (at least in SNE and even SNH). What? Everything is ice cold. It may even stay 32 or below at Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 At the tail end it may end as drizzle or something, at BED and LWM ,but the cold will not be scoured out easily. It will end as DZ/-RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 KASH will also flip to rain later in period. They will have a better shot at snow for a longer period before it flips however. Well I'm sure most places will flip to 'non-snow' at some point..the question is when..it appears that the Euro run is holding in the cold much longer allowing for a decent front end thump for most areas. And possibly a transition to sleet/rain thereafter, but by then who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What? Everything is ice cold. It may even stay 32 or below at Logan Yeah when it's snowing but the surface temps are going to rise as it around the same time it begins to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well I'm sure most places will flip to 'non-snow' at some point..the question is when..it appears that the Euro run is holding in the cold much longer allowing for a decent front end thump for most areas. And possibly a transition to sleet/rain thereafter, but by then who cares. If anything a little drizzle or sleet after several inches of snow will help lock it in for the cold next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Much of the interior won't see freezing until the cold front mixes out the CAD airmass. You might see something like ORH at 28/28 with NE wind and FZDZ...then they jump to 35/22 with a WNW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 KTAN is warm at low levels at 18Z at 18z it's over really. this'll be a really quick shot. and if anything, one thing we know with these types of systems is guidance tends to be on the slow side of things. you can see the mid-levels are already drying out across most of SNE by 18z. i'd wager it's faster than that even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Haven't looked as closely to the models, but it appears this CAD event is pretty weak sauce. Appears most places will start out as snow then just flip to rain with warm low levels (at least in SNE and even SNH). BDL stays frozen and below 32 for the better part of the event, probably something like 90% of the precip falls into sub 32F temps. So I dont know what you mean when you say all of southern new england looks to change to rain rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 BDL stays frozen and below 32 for the better part of the event, probably something like 90% of the precip falls into sub 32F temps. So I dont know what you mean when you say all of southern new england looks to change to rain rather quickly. I never said quickly. It will switch to rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I never said quickly. It will switch to rain though. More likely drizzle than rain, the bulk of the precip will be over by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 at 18z it's over really. this'll be a really quick shot. and if anything, one thing we know with these types of systems is guidance tends to be on the slow side of things. you can see the mid-levels are already drying out across most of SNE by 18z. i'd wager it's faster than that even. Eh, I wouldn't bet on that. I can see what you're saying if you're referring to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 KTAN is warm at low levels at 18Z Well that's Taunton though. I mean the bulk of precip is frozen. It may jump to 35 or 36 at the tail end over the interior but the damage is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Warmest temps post fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well that's Taunton though. I mean the bulk of precip is frozen. It may jump to 35 or 36 at the tail end over the interior but the damage is done. I wouldn't write it off at 18Z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah when it's snowing but the surface temps are going to rise as it around the same time it begins to rain. I don't think up in this part of the country I have ever seen an "easy" transition to rain, with the initial condition of a 1035mb, polar-arctic hybrid high retreating in like fasion; compounding, the air is hygroscopically ...hugely primed for thermal dynamic feed-back into a cold solution. Man, this BL is going to be some viscous doo-doo; good luck ripping it out of here... If it goes to liquid in this set up, it goes to super-glue where it makes contact with the outside air. Folks, I'd also caution not trusting 2-meter temp products, ...even from the higher resolution runs for this time range. The lowest 50 to 100mb of atmosphere are going to be tough to resolve with an inverted sounding at the very bottom. But, stranger things have probably happened ... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Eh, I wouldn't bet on that. I can see what you're saying if you're referring to the Euro. for the majority of SNE and the majority of the precip...i'd *almost* take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I will toast pretty quickly here Sun night with an east wind in Stamford to upper 30s, but that is par for the course. Really anyone north of the Merritt and especially CT river valley right on up through Mass should have no problem hanging onto the CAD air mass and staying mostly if not entirely frozen I believe..These lows are not strong, particularly the primary to really mix northward the warm air, and there is enough of a secondary reflection to keep the wind from raging SE..Your CT river valley should have no problem tilting that wind due north for an extended time into Mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Reason why I'm calling this a weak CAD event is because I don't see many IP/FZRA events occurring which is usually what occurs with these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I figured that, but a wind chill of -30 at noon time in early December is crazy. I never experienced that and I'm not sure if I want to, the coldest wind chills I ever experienced was -12 or so, which is nothing compared to the -30 to -40 readings out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 No need to dwell on details like this 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Reason why I'm calling this a weak CAD event is because I don't see many IP/FZRA events occurring which is usually what occurs with these events.If the mid level push was stronger, I'm guessing there would be more IP/FZRA for a longer duration..Also, I'd think this is due more to the limited amount of precip, and it being a quick system, not the lack of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the mid level push was stronger, I'm guessing there would be more IP/FZRA for a longer duration.. Also, I'd think this is due more to the limited amount of precip, and it being a quick system, not the lack of CAD. I think you're misunderstanding. When I say weak CAD event I mean weak in regards to the impacts it will have. The signal is definitely there, I never said it wasn't. What you said above is likely the case as to why we won't get CAD-esque precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Can someone help me out here. Isn't a faster moving system better? If it's a quick mover it allows less time to changeover, and by the time it does... Essentially all that's left is drizzle. I may be wrong This event is reminding me of an event that occurred right around the new year in 2009. We saw probably 5 or so inches or snow, then a little drizzle and the following days if I remember correctly were pretty darn cold. I'll do some research see if I can get specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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