canderson Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 CTP's forecast for 17101 (downtown Harrisburg) is 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 CTP's forecast for 17101 (downtown Harrisburg) is 3-5". point and click now matches map, 3-5 at KLNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Elliott Abrams mentioned this years ago..."snow begats more snow" There seems to be a correlation to that. Here's hoping for a snowy winter for all of us. Currently I am at 35 with about half of yesterday's 3" left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 CTP's forecast for 17101 (downtown Harrisburg) is 3-5". i'll take it.. this going to be another sharp cut off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 i'll take it.. this going to be another sharp cut off? Aren't we always the battleground for the sharp cutoff, regardless of storm type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Aren't we always the battleground for the sharp cutoff, regardless of storm type? i just needed reminding every now and then, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 i just needed reminding every now and then, thanks! We need to rename the corner where Cumberland, Dauphin and York counties all meet Bastogne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam doesn't look so hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks to stay cold in the near term. Stil 2" of dense snowpack left plus 3-5" on top would be great. What a start to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam doesn't look so hot! still looks pretty good down this way...between .25-.50 I am just expecting 1-2 if we get more great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 still looks pretty good down this way...between .25-.50 I am just expecting 1-2 if we get more great. I think 2-4 is still pretty conservative for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 still looks pretty good down this way...between .25-.50 I am just expecting 1-2 if we get more great. I would think 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This may have been posted already... I did not get a chance to look up the 12z ECMWF myself today. Anyone have the QPF totals for KMDT and the rest of central Pennsylvania? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This may have been posted already... I did not get a chance to look up the 12z ECMWF myself today. Anyone have the QPF totals for KMDT and the rest of central Pennsylvania? Thanks in advance! MDT was 0.24" and UNV was 0.04". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Anyone have the 18z GFS qpf for KMDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Anyone have the 18z GFS qpf for KMDT? 0.24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What's the timing on this, roughly 6 am - 2 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Anyone have the 18z GFS qpf for KMDT? 0.24" AccuWeather has .47, Earl Barker has .46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 AccuWeather has .47, Earl Barker has .46 Jamie I was just quoting off of here. But .47" sounds better http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weird radar echoes this evening. Moving east and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weird radar echoes this evening. Moving east and northeast. image.jpg Bird migration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hmmm....guess I'll take it. Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Jamie I was just quoting off of here. But .47" sounds better http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmdt That has .44 now. One thing that I didn't figure out until last year and that was by accident; pay attention to the time. If it starts with 21Z, it's the 18Z. Otherwise, it's the 06Z. I didn't realize that it takes a bit to update. I got excited over a storm showing us getting 11 inches then 10 minutes later it said we were getting 4, and I was all WTF until I figured out the start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Bird migration? Obviously a squab line, a real car topper: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like this, Pennman: http://www.weather.com/news/science/radar-birds-bugs-bats-smoke-20130506?pageno=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Weird radar echoes this evening. Moving east and northeast. Well thats pretty interesting, I still had GRAnalyst up on my computer from the storm last night so I just had a look at it on there. This thing starts in the southwest around johnstown and once it's far enough east of the radar it starts picking the full length of it up when east of CCX radar. Seems like it progressed SW to NE and is now being picked up by the flow aloft and it's gets picked up starting at around 4-5k feet. The dual pol products show that this is definitely not a weather phenomenon. The left image is using the differential reflectivity product (ZDR), you can clearly see the streak on it and it has very high positive values (>7), meaning whatever the radars hitting is much larger horizontally than it is vertically. Right image is corellation coefficient, which is a percentage value. Regular precip/hydrometeor are usually quite high being nearly 100%, meaning everything is a uniform size. You can see the stream of echoes has very low CC values indicating alot of inconsistency in the size of whatever its hitting. To pretty much sum it up I'm not sure what that would be and it's quite peculiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like this, Pennman: http://www.weather.com/news/science/radar-birds-bugs-bats-smoke-20130506?pageno=6 Hhmm well it def could be that I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well thats pretty interesting, I still had GRAnalyst up on my computer from the storm last night so I just had a look at it on there. This thing starts in the southwest around johnstown and once it's far enough east of the radar it starts picking the full length of it up when east of CCX radar. Seems like it progressed SW to NE and is now being picked up by the flow aloft and it's gets picked up starting at around 4-5k feet. The dual pol products show that this is definitely not a weather phenomenon. CCXweird.png The left image is using the differential reflectivity product (ZDR), you can clearly see the streak on it and it has very high positive values (>7), meaning whatever the radars hitting is much larger horizontally than it is vertically. Right image is corellation coefficient, which is a percentage value. Regular precip/hydrometeor are usually quite high being nearly 100%, meaning everything is a uniform size. You can see the stream of echoes has very low CC values indicating alot of inconsistency in the size of whatever its hitting. To pretty much sum it up I'm not sure what that would be and it's quite peculiar. Check out my link. Looks like chaff. Or..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wow, just learned what chaff was. I always thought it was from wearing a t shirt made of strange material... I stand corrected Thanks for the info, never saw something like that on a radar return at first i thought birds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That has .44 now. One thing that I didn't figure out until last year and that was by accident; pay attention to the time. If it starts with 21Z, it's the 18Z. Otherwise, it's the 06Z. I didn't realize that it takes a bit to update. I got excited over a storm showing us getting 11 inches then 10 minutes later it said we were getting 4, and I was all WTF until I figured out the start time. Jamie thanks for the lesson! I wasn't aware of...if it starts with 21Z = 18Z. Now I hope I remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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