Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 . Oops I didn't say which day. I still got 5 more 18z's for my call to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 mattie g gonna get ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 mattie g gonna get ya See my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 00z run will be HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 00z run will be HUGE BUST FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll always have last night's 00z goofus to cherish. It ain't about the real weather anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Maybe this will trend into a sunny day and 70 on Sunday...250 yards for AP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Maybe this will trend into a sunny day and 70 on Sunday...250 yards for AP!! thing is, once these things start trending away from us when we're around 5 days out, they don't stop and I can't remember one that turned around and hit us as earlier progged the only time we have a shot for things to change in our favor at this range, or at least so it seems, is when they are progged ots then shift left up the coast (there's ur left turn again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 thing is, once these things start trending away from us when we're around 5 days out, they don't stop and I can't remember one that turned around and hit us as earlier progged the only time we have a shot for things to change in our favor at this range, or at least so it seems, is when they are progged ots then shift left up the coast (there's ur left turn again) This one will only get better. I'm thinking about starting a thread but I might wait until it's less than 12 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Mitch, this one was always messy. Now it's more messy. Maybe one of the waves prior helps get a better 50/50ish feature in place to keep that beast of a hp in a better position. We have to root for less messy. That's about it and it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 thing is, once these things start trending away from us when we're around 5 days out, they don't stop and I can't remember one that turned around and hit us as earlier progged the only time we have a shot for things to change in our favor at this range, or at least so it seems, is when they are progged ots then shift left up the coast (there's ur left turn again) Last Christmas. That storm looked good on the GFS until about this time. It also lost the flatter flow and sent the low into the lakes. But it came back around about a day later all while the Euro insisted the low would go to the lakes. The low ended up in eastern KY. I do realize that that storm isn't exactly a favorite for the eastern crowd but it was a good one for some. This storm isn't the same setup, but you never know for sure how it will trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Last Christmas. That storm looked good on the GFS until about this time. It also lost the flatter flow and sent the low into the lakes. But it came back around about a day later all while the Euro insisted the low would go to the lakes. The low ended up in eastern KY. I do realize that that storm isn't exactly a favorite for the eastern crowd but it was a good one for some. This storm isn't the same setup, but you never know for sure how it will trend. Anything is possible within reason. I believe the euro/18z gfs may be close to a worst case scenario. Once we're inside of 5 days the low track will be mostly resolved. I would suck to see such a good hp strength and placement go to total waste. A period of winter precip with sub freezing temps is fine with me. I hope I can at least score that here. You'll get one of the better outcomes areawide no matter what so play nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Anything is possible within reason. I believe the euro/18z gfs may be close to a worst case scenario. Once we're inside of 5 days the low track will be mostly resolved. I would suck to see such a good hp strength and placement go to total waste. A period of winter precip with sub freezing temps is fine with me. I hope I can at least score that here. You'll get one of the better outcomes areawide no matter what so play nice. Play nice? For two years I've pulled as hard as I could for you guys to get a good snow. Heck I'll take a fringe job just to watch you guys get one. This one can't be set yet if the models are any indicator. They might seem consistent but that's an illusion. The timing on the features keeps changing. Now cold air is set to be in here Friday night/Sat morning. My forecast yesterday for Sat was a high of 56. Now it's 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Play nice? For two years I've pulled as hard as I could for you guys to get a good snow. Heck I'll take a fringe job just to watch you guys get one. This one can't be set yet if the models are any indicator. They might seem consistent but that's an illusion. The timing on the features keeps changing. Now cold air is set to be in here Friday night/Sat morning. My forecast yesterday for Sat was a high of 56. Now it's 36. Play nice = Climo is a b!+ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Phillywx looks like it is leaning more toward failure than success The quality of the discussion isn't bad but the quantity is lacking...mostly Tombo talking to himself Someone should invite Adam into our forum.....I think he would like it here...I want to collect as many mets as possible...even Isohume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 it's too early in the season for us to count on snow. even in our best season it's too early. yea we get the occasional fluke, but it's the exception. i don't understand why anyone would get hyped about a storm 6-7 days out. it's ridiculous. not that i don't do it sometimes, but when i do, it's still ridiculous lol. We can't count on snow here. Ever. That's the problem. We've already wasted some really good cold air and it looks like we are set to waste some more, and then a likely pattern flip to above normal for who knows how long. Before you know it, it'll be mid-Jan w/ nothing to show for it except for a glimmer of hope on a d10 -AO/-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is Ellinwood sitting this winter out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We can't count on snow here. Ever. That's the problem. We've already wasted some really good cold air and it looks like we are set to waste some more, and then a likely pattern flip to above normal for who knows how long. Before you know it, it'll be mid-Jan w/ nothing to show for it except for a glimmer of hope on a d10 -AO/-NAO. I don't see how you can enjoy any part of winter with an attitude like this. If you'll remember we had a pretty good winter out here last year. Our friends to the east have suffered more than we have. You're not going to win any friends if you keep complaining. You usually aren't like this. Just enjoy what comes. Ain't like we can change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is Ellinwood sitting this winter out? for posting on Amwx, I believe he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is Ellinwood sitting this winter out? If you'll remember he got mad about something earlier this year. You put him in his place and he hasn't been back since. I can't remember what he got mad about, but I remember you defending some of us who aren't on the level of a weather god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This storm suck's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think that we should get well above average snowfall sometime in the next four years (probably not this year). We seem to get big winters every 4-8 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think that we should get well above average snowfall sometime in the next four years (probably not this year). We seem to get big winters every 4-8 years. Mitch will be dead by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Mitch will be dead by then. thanks for your kind words r.i.p. you pr!ck p.s. you almost had me in spring 2010 but I stuck around to suffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Tough to live in this area if you like snow...especially east of 81....we are just far enough north to think we have a chance and just far enough south to have it usually not work out...I'm trying not to let it wreck my mood but it's challenging because our window for really good snow is so small...I used to live in Hampton Roads so when I get really down I try to remember those days...it can always be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Wow, I think the hotline needs to be opened up already. Dec 2nd is a new record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This storm suck's. Make it easier for yourself: TSS. We'll all understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Lol. This is what happens when models fail to deliver snow, frozen whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 It's still funny how the snowy model runs 5 days out are never right but the warm rainy ones are...not questioning it just think it's funny...I hope someone gets ice so dt doesn't look so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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