Pre-Thanksgiving Sou'easter Observation and Nowcasting Thread

[HSNN4]

Hello Everyone,  Report of snow now in Millburn in Union County,  My mesonet station in Green Brook near Washington Rock at an elevation of 494 Feet has dropped a degrees its 34F at the station.

[IsentropicLift]

Still nothing but virga in Ramsey.

[Sickman]

Very light sleet in Carle Place.

[MJO812]

Light sleet here in Brooklyn

[nzucker]

Sleeting here in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GEFS mean is wetter than the op. Shows 1.75"+ from I-80 north while the OP shows more like 1.25-.1.50".

[ag3]

Snow/sleet mix in Bayside, Queens.

[Superstorm93]

Melting layer easily visible from Reading, PA to JFK

 

Expecting three types of precip all within the same hour (SN/IP/RA)

 

[snywx]

Lgt Snow.. 31F

[SnoSki14]

The 12z GEFS mean is wetter than the op. Shows 1.75"+ from I-80 north while the OP shows more like 1.25-.1.50".

 

That's not all that significant, like I said before it's a bit more than a typical run of the mill storm. It's a typical southern stream storm system that we see several times a year that is very expansive but not out of the ordinary. 

[IsentropicLift]

That's not all that significant, like I said before it's a bit more than a typical run of the mill storm. It's a typical southern stream storm system that we see several times a year that is very expansive but not out of the ordinary. 

So what's your over under on this storm. You willing to say that no station in this area gets over 3" of rain?

[Dark Star]

Sleet at Tremley Point in Linden, NJ.  Started out as a "low density" pellet, or possibly some refrozen snow?

[BlueSkiesFading]

Light snow and sleet in Lyndhurst.

[SnoSki14]

So what's your over under on this storm. You willing to say that no station in this area gets over 3" of rain?

 

I'm going with under 2.5" for most with this storm. I think most areas will get at least 2" because the gfs is most likely too dry with this storm given its origins, but it moves through rather quickly so it'll be difficult for a lot of places to get to 3" or above. I think at least one station could hit 3", but even that's debatable. 

[user13]

Sleet here in Queens. Its cool to see this system start as sleet being that we might see 60 at the height of it.

[Allsnow]

So what's your over under on this storm. You willing to say that no station in this area gets over 3" of rain?

None of the major reporting stations will get over 3

[96blizz]

Cool to see more flakes in November regardless of the impending changeover and glad we're getting some decent rain at last. 

 

That is all my friends!  This storm is only out of the ordinary in the context of months of no similar events, but we've seen it many times...and will see it many more.

[Brian5671]

I'm going with under 2.5" for most with this storm. I think most areas will get at least 2" because the gfs is most likely too dry with this storm given its origins, but it moves through rather quickly so it'll be difficult for a lot of places to get to 3" or above. I think at least one station could hit 3", but even that's debatable. 

That's actually a good under/over #.  I'm going to go over for my locale, but I think alot of places will be right around this #.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro cut totals by around 0.50" from it's previous run. It's a compromise of the NAM and the GFS. 2.00"+.

 

All of the models have that area of heavy rain tonight. The differences are with just how intense it actually is.

[Allsnow]

Euro says tops is 2 inches

[MikeS]

Sleeting in Florham Park

[Cfa]

I believe it's sleeting in Midtown. Whatever's falling is too hard and sharp to be rain.

[NorthShoreWx]

Light snow/sleet mix here.  A little bit of a surprise, but with temp at 42, not much of a difference from if it were a sprinkle.

[SnoSki14]

Will have to keep an eye on the winds though, pretty strong LLJ going to move through. We'll have to see if we can attain more mixing tomorrow as temperatures begin to rise on a southerly wind. Observed temps tend to rise higher than forecast in these situations so 60s are definitely a possibility early tomorrow, which would support stronger mixing and at least advisory level winds. 

[patrick05]

also getting frozen precip here at KFRG; kind of like sleet/ice pellets...

[IsentropicLift]

If I had a penny for every time the models cut back on QPF twelve hours before an event I would be a millionaire. The Euro is nothing like the GFS and that's all I needed to see.

[jm1220]

I believe it's sleeting in Midtown. Whatever's falling is too hard and sharp to be rain.

There were some flurries outside about 20-30 min ago

[IsentropicLift]

Don't have totals on the 12z JMA but it looks like 2-3"+

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Light snow in Ramsey at last.

[Snowlover11]

Flurries starting here