Rjay Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Maybe hes not basing it off models. Maybe he knows from experience most storms end before the models show they end. But I'm not him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 12-4pm seems like a reasonable end time to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Maybe hes not basing it off models. Maybe he knows from experience most storms end before the models show they end. But I'm not him. Around 4-5:00 tomorrow afternoon is a reasonable estimate, and yes that does tend to happen. The NAM and GFS are more like 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 18z RGEM might be the wettest model run we've had yet. That's like 3-4" of rain in less than 12 hours for the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 18z RGEM might be the wettest model run we've had yet. That's like 3-4" of rain in less than 12 hours for the CT coast. I'm still thinking it will be a wet outcome for us-I'd say on average 2.5-3.5" of rain. The low level jet means business and the trough is going negative tilt. There will be a very heavy line of rain which will cross the whole area but tend to train for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 RGEM total accumulated precipitation. Looks like lollipops to near 3" of rain in NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 .12" in the bucket Temp 36 DP 36 Humidity 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 0.33" so far in freehold..Temp has risen to 46°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Maybe a little backside love on the 00z NAM 2nd wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Maybe a little backside love on the 00z NAM 2nd wave? My brain might be inventing things but I'm almost positive that one of the NAM's major victories last year was the forecasting of a spoke of low pressure from a departing cyclone that, for some here, brought more snow than the actual "event" preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 50.8 Torching hard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 My brain might be inventing things but I'm almost positive that one of the NAM's major victories last year was the forecasting of a spoke of low pressure from a departing cyclone that, for some here, brought more snow than the actual "event" preceding it. You may be referring to Mar 7-8th retro grading event. I think it was the GFS that sniffed it out before the Euro, could have been NAM but that model was hopelessly wet last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Maybe a little backside love on the 00z NAM 2nd wave? Precip is gone here before any snow. Remember, that's precip that fell over the preceding 6 hours. The second wave just prolongs the rain along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Been a steady rain here for a few hours, nothing crazy about the rates so far. .54 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Precip is gone here before any snow. Remember, that's precip that fell over the preceding 6 hours. The second wave just prolongs the rain along the coast. Yes this is known. About half of that looks frozen, at least at H850, hence the words, a "little" love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 It's raining fairly hard now. The heaviest rain should fall from between 2am and 10am so we still have awhile to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Temps going up, 49F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Everything starting to take shape quite nicely. That area of rain over southern PA which is expected to be our main heavy rain producer is starting to intensify. You can tell this by looking at the estimated rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Up to 52 pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 53.7 .58 in bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Wow you guys are torching down there! Just broke freezing here an hour ago lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Wow you guys are torching down there! Just broke freezing here an hour ago lol.. Sad actually. I need to put some AC on. Winds are picking up nicely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Sad actually. I need to put some AC on. Winds are picking up nicely though. Honestly if its gonna rain might as well be warm.. Whats sad is that here its 32.6 and Lgt Rain. Now thats sad and depressing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 54 degrees and mod rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Honestly if its gonna rain might as well be warm.. Whats sad is that here its 32.6 and Lgt Rain. Now thats sad and depressing! True, there's nothing worse than 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Temp:51 DP:51 Humidity:100% 0.61" of total rainfall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 So 20s ...two days ago.. then a storm finally comes.. and we go up to 60...and back to 30s tomorrow night after it is over. We are so lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 traveling home to Edison,NJ tomorrow. Currently about 52 and rain in Preston,CT Ride normally takes 3 hours. I anticipate an extra 30 minutes for every hour after 8am that I leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 .98 in d bucket. 58.6 with house rattling wind. At least the rain is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 59.9 and light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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