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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

CAD_Wedge_NC

By CAD_Wedge_NC,
in Southeastern States

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
I hear the Euro looks good with strong hp over se Canada/Northeast next Sunday. Then by looking on the cheap freebie maps, after a short warmup on Tuesday, more major cold is ready to move in next Wednesday.

Anybody with good maps got more details for the southeast?

TW

Yes that's what it shows. Actually portrays a significant 48-72 hour warm up at 850. I am going to go out on a limb and say the ensembles won't back up what it shows wrt this.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

Yes that's what it shows. Actually portrays a significant 48-72 hour warm up at 850. I am going to go out on a limb and say the ensembles won't back up what it shows wrt this.

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Do you think the ensembles will not show the 48-72 hr warm up at 850?  Do you have good maps where you can get surface temps for Sunday-Tuesday?

TW

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Do you think the ensembles will not show the 48-72 hr warm up at 850? Do you have good maps where you can get surface temps for Sunday-Tuesday?

TW

It just looked a little overdone to me. I don't have access to the 2 m temperatures, maybe someone else does. There's good wedging present in spite of the 850s at a quick glance.

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BNAwx

BNAwx

Posted
Posted

It'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out here in Mid TN.  Looks like the 0 line at 850 wants to set up show close by for a few days.  As Cold Rain said, we'll worry about 2m temps later on.  Could be a doozy for someone around this area so long as there's moisture around.

 

I love/hate ice storms.... :popcorn:

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 The 12Z Euro *fwiw* does suggest a ZR threat for the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA for 12/8-9.Looking at just 850's, I wouldn't think it would involve more than W NC. However, this is a king of CAD's being modeled (which makes me take it with a huge grain, of course, especially since the GFS has nothing like it). So, for example, at hour 192, it has Athens' 850 at ~54 F but the 2 M is only at ~36 F with light rain!! That would be an 18 F differential, which is almost unheard of in these parts. Then again, how often is the CAD high modeled as strong as 1044 mb? Not too often I suspect.

 

 Also, keep in mind that the Euro has a strong warm bias at two meters during wintertime steady precip. events for which there is evap. cooling. I've seen it be off close to 10 F in the too warm direction. So, if we just were to take 5 F from Athens's temp., they'd be at 31 F with zr.

 

 However, as mentioned, I'm taking this 12Z Euro run with a huge grain. Besides, it is a whopping eight days out...still in semi-fantasyland. I'm looking at it as just one possibility of many and near the worst (best depending on what one wants) case scenario. The odds of it verifying closely are pretty low that far out. The Euro sometimes has too strong a high at the surface in the NE US, especially at 8 days out. I wouldn't bet on a 1044 mb high actually verifying at least as of now. So, if it is weaker, it would likely be less cold in the CAD areas. The CAD in GA looks too strong vs. history.when considering 850's.

 

 In summary, this is still largely just for entertainment from my perspective (especially considering even the king Euro has been way off with wintry threats at times), but it shows what could happen if everything lines up just right (or wrong). The period around 12/8-9 has been showing a good number of threats on a number of model runs of the GFS, too. So, it is a legit. threat period as of now..

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
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 The 12Z Euro *fwiw* does suggest a ZR threat for the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA for 12/8-9.Looking at just 850's, I wouldn't think it would involve more than W NC. However, this is a king of CAD's being modeled (which makes me take it with a huge grain, of course, especially since the GFS has nothing like it). So, for example, at hour 192, it has Athens' 850 at ~54 F but the 2 M is only at ~36 F with light rain!! That would be an 18 F differential, which is almost unheard of in these parts. Then again, how often is the CAD high modeled as strong as 1044 mb? Not too often I suspect.

 

 Also, keep in mind that the Euro has a strong warm bias at two meters during wintertime steady precip. events for which there is evap. cooling. I've seen it be off close to 10 F in the too warm direction. So, if we just were to take 5 F from Athens's temp., they'd be at 31 F with zr.

 

 However, as mentioned, I'm taking this 12Z Euro run with a huge grain. Besides, it is a whopping eight days out...still in semi-fantasyland. I'm looking at it as just one possibility of many and near the worst (best depending on what one wants) case scenario. The odds of it verifying closely are pretty low that far out. The Euro sometimes has too strong a high at the surface in the NE US, especially at 8 days out. I wouldn't bet on a 1045 mb high actually verifying at least as of now. So, if it is weaker, it would likely be less cold in the CAD areas. The CAD in GA looks too strong vs. history.when considering 850's.

 

 In summary, this is still largely just for entertainment from my perspective, but it shows what could happen if everything lines up just right (or wrong). The period around 12/8-9 has been showing a good number of threats on a number of model runs of the GFS, too. So, it is a legit. threat period as of now..

Maybe not that far fetched? From FFC a little while ago:

SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SATURDAY /AS THE

SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN STARTS/ AND BEYOND BECAUSE OF THAT

UNCERTAINTY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT SENSIBLE WEATHER

IMPACTS OCCUR WITH THE DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CAD EVENT FOR EARLY

NEXT WEEK.

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

Posted
Posted

NWS Greenville just as tigger happy to discuss long range hype as we are now.

 

Arctic high pressure will fill in behind the passing cold front and quickly setup over the northeast yielding the return of a strong cad regime and perhaps some wintry precipitation for the start of next week as another upper trough digs across The Rockies. 

 

hr180 euro

1474420_545783332181332_1093515549_n.jpg

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swva

swva

Posted
Posted

If the HP is this strong and located in good position as modeled, the cold being shown now is probably underdone.  Give this a couple more days and the cold will probably be even better modeled.  This looks like classic ice storm for NC and parts of VA.  Starting as Snow in VA.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

so it looks like most folks think this warmup this week is going to be very brief and the cold comes back with a vengence the beginning of next week. I guess the rubberband is snapping back the other way. Hope this is right, but alos hope along with the cold these wintry threats we see 10 days out are real. Most of the time the models back off as we get closer to the zero hour. We shall see.

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swva

swva

Posted
Posted

Just looking at that. CAD sets up about hour 168 and stays that way for a while. If this air is truly that cold and dense, the models most likely don't pickup on that yet. 

 

Agree 100%.. I think we continue to see the CAD get stronger in future model runs.  Looks like a fun storm tracking week ahead.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Now to fantasyland fwiw: 2nd CAD event 12/11-12 possibly down to parts of N GA (further SW than the 12/8 event on the 18Z gfs).

 

In summary, the period 12/8-12 continues to look interesting at least and could yield two separate CAD events per some of the GFS runs. However, the big GFS snows for 12/8 have not returned.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Per 18Z GFS: colder/more CAD W NC 12/8 though nothing like 12Z Euro as far as SW extent. Hopefully this colder trend will lead to happiness at the Brick abode even though his area is not in CAD central. ;)

We're not CAD central(Winston-Salem / Greensboro) but we re CAD fringe. The high is strong, cold, and in the right position we get to play.

 

CAD_1_V2.jpg

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Huffwx

Huffwx

Posted
Posted

Agree 100%.. I think we continue to see the CAD get stronger in future model runs.  Looks like a fun storm tracking week ahead.

 

 

I think our best case is 1-3 of snow and sleet with ZR on top. Nice event to start the season, bad timing for me kid wise. (Dance and School Christmas programs)

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swva

swva

Posted
Posted

I think our best case is 1-3 of snow and sleet with ZR on top. Nice event to start the season, bad timing for me kid wise. (Dance and School Christmas programs)

 

I'll take it for December..  Could be some nasty ice.  Did you see those temperatures on the morning of the 8th per the Euro?  GFS keeps hinting at another possibility mid-week but first things first.  Been a crazy cold start to things overall. 

 

Sorry about the timing on the programs.  Hopefully they will make them up.

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Huffwx

Huffwx

Posted
Posted

I'll take it for December..  Could be some nasty ice.  Did you see those temperatures on the morning of the 8th per the Euro?  GFS keeps hinting at another possibility mid-week but first things first.  Been a crazy cold start to things overall. 

 

Sorry about the timing on the programs.  Hopefully they will make them up.

 

 

Yeah, well-- things you can't control. Chloe's put a ton of work into the Christmas show and parade. 

 

With that, if it's cancelled, winter event is the best reason why. :)

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Down here in my area of SC looks much less Wintry per the models now.. which definitely makes sense.  I had run a precip metegram from the 00z GFS last night and it put much over an inch of ZR imby though... just not the same time-frame anymore..  Not sure how to take this whole situation because of the following facts:

 

My own personal maps that I have created have been wiffle waffling per GFS.  Like extremely different solutions.  Examples:

 

1) One time, over an inch of sleet.

2) Another time actual snow (not sure thats even possible and was just a snafu I'm sure.)

3) Massive ZR event..

4) Rain

5) Massive ZR then sleet then snow.

 

The interesting thing though for my area in the Midlands of SC is that even though with the back and fourth, it's really beeping the horn anywhere between 8-10th.  With the 9th being the most showing up.  Currently it's rain, with some convection.  I took a look at the Euro 2ms and they had this area around 34 (but very little precip) of course during that time.  Not really sure.. just have to wait it out for mby it looks like.  I'm on the side of rain for us in the Midlands though, even with the CAD stronger.. I do expect the precip types of ice to show up a couple more times until a solution is met for this area... and that's the horrible part with anything related to ice.

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