Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 CT, CMA look like the bullseye for about 6.5".. wow..Hopefully the NAM has no clue honestly, too much rain too much wind, actually one of Kevs damaging times events, nobody want that for Turkey day. What lurks in the back of my mind is this elongated low look that models have shown from time, what some are calling a second wave. That type of look is a flood look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ground is like concrete from the lack of moisture. Very top is pretty chilly too My basement might be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hopefully the NAM has no clue honestly, too much rain too much wind, actually one of Kevs damaging times events, nobody want that for Turkey day. What lurks in the back of my mind is this elongated low look that models have shown from time, what some are calling a second wave. That type of look is a flood look. Am I seeing things! Holy sh!t ... I just eye-balled 9" of rain for Springfield Ma, and that might be conservative. Seriously, that would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hopefully the NAM has no clue honestly, too much rain too much wind, actually one of Kevs damaging times events, nobody want that for Turkey day. What lurks in the back of my mind is this elongated low look that models have shown from time, what some are calling a second wave. That type of look is a flood look. I'll be honest..if it can't be snow...I do want it. Sick..maybe..true..yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Call me a Debbie, but I'm taking the under.Yea me too, the ghost of Feb 13 QPF does remain in my craw. NAM did well 2 days out but it's so out to lunch on everything else it's useless other than a piece to look at. NMM and hi res are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This is very true but on the same token if you're not going to allow weeniesm you should also be mindful of the reverse which has been occuring at times. I haven't understood the pulse of this board lately. We've had what was clearly going to be some savage cold sandwiched around periods of warmth...in short good weather for this season and yet everyone is still anxious. I think in this pattern we're going to battle inside vs outside storm track repeatedly and it's going to be a long early winter if things don't change a little. Scott no misunderstanding I was more commenting on how I could see peoples feeligns getting hurt. I think we all need to keep in mind what made this place great and it was a mix of personalities, education levels etc. Every year my interest wanes a little and I've paid very little attention this fall aside of the general pattern and opportunity but I still enjoy reading. As someone who has posted compartively very little the last few weeks I'm just surprised by teh tone and I'm not sure what's going on. As Will said in the last post...I think everyone just needs to chill. I don't think this is a winter where everything is going to work out, we'll have plenty of threats and probably plenty of wintry events but we will have messes/inside runners too and I just hope everyone relaxes a bit. I don't know who's feelings are hurt, but I would just like to see posts that comment on model features that are non-existent to stop, that's all. Wishcasting doesn't help. That's all. It gon' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yea me too, the ghost of Feb 13 QPF does remain in my craw. NAM did well 2 days out but it's so out to lunch on everything else it's useless other than a piece to look at. NMM and hi res are better. If the ECMWF wants to climb on board with those QPF amounts, then we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well if that setup were to happen, we definitely would be seeing prolific rains. That amount of convergence with those PWATS? Fire up the SOS if that were to happen. That does seem overzealous, but this does show signs of a heavy rain event near and west of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It def has, , i AM not one to CRY on a wx board, but it is more than one or two posters who see this wether it is a joke to many or not. Some Mets /mods could use more patience at times and SOME need to realize 2 major things. Not everyone needs to look at what will go wrong with a forecast to not be let down, its a more depressing option , but a option none the less. You can be positive and look at what can go right and shrug off a event that ends up raining, it isn't a monumental achievement. Many of us think like this . Not everyone is focused on the CP of sne , many are very interest'd this time of year on the NNE mountains wrt skiing. That is not going to change I think the bigger issue is some are bother'd by optomistic views and those who think of what can go right bc it flys in the face of their pessimism and makes them somewhat uncomfortable, these are the people that should prob chill and are aggravated in first place did i not spell out my opinion yesterday wrt nne? that call looks pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If the ECMWF wants to climb on board with those QPF amounts, then we can talk.Save a horse ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well if that setup were to happen, we definitely would be seeing prolific rains. That amount of convergence with those PWATS? Fire up the SOS if that were to happen. That does seem overzealous, but this does show signs of a heavy rain event near and west of the front.Nice, lots of places need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well if that setup were to happen, we definitely would be seeing prolific rains. That amount of convergence with those PWATS? Fire up the SOS if that were to happen. That does seem overzealous, but this does show signs of a heavy rain event near and west of the front. NAM is off its rocker on qpf as it typically is at this timeframe. With a juiced southern stream system though we'll likely see some pretty high totals. 2-4" is not out of the realm imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well if that setup were to happen, we definitely would be seeing prolific rains. That amount of convergence with those PWATS? Fire up the SOS if that were to happen. That does seem overzealous, but this does show signs of a heavy rain event near and west of the front. I even wonder about the ptype and positioning of that frontal axis. This is a 70 ~ mile E shift with the entire structure of this thing, showing how just a small amount of change in the handling of the phasing timing/dynamical details can mean bigger difference at the surface. As is, ALB probably goes to heavy sleet and some ice (just from a synoptic appeal...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 What the heck NAM. lol... the NAM brings back hope for the mountain. That second wave would be mostly snow in the higher terrain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 2/3rd rule on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 lol... the NAM brings back hope for the mountain. That second wave would be mostly snow in the higher terrain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I even wonder about the ptype and positioning of that frontal axis. This is a 70 ~ mile E shift with the entire structure of this thing, showing how just a small amount of change in the handling of the phasing timing/dynamical details can mean bigger difference at the surface. As is, ALB probably goes to heavy sleet and some ice (just from a synoptic appeal...) Yeah these little tickles one way or another will be huge for this western edge. I still don't think I have a shot yet, but could be a few inches of snow/sleet then over to a pouring rain, then back to a decent snow, lol. This was BTV's forecast and I think they have it covered: Tuesday Night: Snow or rain or sleet. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday: Rain or snow or sleet. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows 15 to 20. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 did i not spell out my opinion yesterday wrt nne? that call looks pretty good right now. I dont know what your call was for central and northern Vt (im staying in c vt @1400') and at least visiting n vt over weekend. That area is up for grabs. Seems to me the 18z nam was a tad slower and allowed the frontal boundary to slide a tad more east and a bit more wintery precip for the area i am following. I'd like to know if that is close to euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Just verbatim what it shows...unless there's a warm layer between H85 and H7. Not that I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I dont know what your call was for central and northern Vt (im staying in c vt @1400') and at least visiting n vt over weekend. That area is up for grabs. Seems to me the 18z nam was a tad slower and allowed the frontal boundary to slide a tad more east and a bit more wintery precip for the area i am following. I'd like to know if that is close to euro ens I would not use the NAM for this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I would not use the NAM for this setup. Ride Euro Ens. I was wondering if the meso scale models would be more useful than usual since we are looking at a narrower corridor of enhanced precip near any temp contrast. I thought meso's would sniff this out better, albeit prob in another 12-24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I dont know what your call was for central and northern Vt (im staying in c vt @1400') and at least visiting n vt over weekend. That area is up for grabs. Seems to me the 18z nam was a tad slower and allowed the frontal boundary to slide a tad more east and a bit more wintery precip for the area i am following. I'd like to know if that is close to euro ens Judging by the Wunderground images of the ECM, there's that secondary burst of precip that would be snow or very close to it here with a few inches as that thermal gradient shifts east. ECM also starts us as a couple inches of snow...but like an inch of rain in the middle, lol. If this can tickle back to the Cape or something we'll be back in the game. *IF* this is mostly front loaded, then its a lot of rain. If we can somehow get a follow up low to form and the front low is weaker, it could turn more wintery. But that heavy rain axis on the NAM just went from ALB-RUT-MPV to NYC-HFD-ORH-PWM. Those little shifts could be significant on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This is going to be a really fast moving system. It will be rather difficult to get the rainfall amounts being advertised to verify. I would think 3'-4'' would the maximum as far as rainfall totals with probably 1.5'' the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM is off its rocker on qpf as it typically is at this timeframe. With a juiced southern stream system though we'll likely see some pretty high totals. 2-4" is not out of the realm imo. Well the NAM does this by having that elongated front with a weak wave move north and then stalls it as new energy comes around and develops the final wave along the front. Part of the NAM overzealous amounts is due to the length of time we have such strong convergence along that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ya pfreak, that seems to sum it up well. If its front loaded its a rain bomb, well NW into VT. I'm not sure what climo favors in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I would not use the NAM for this setup. Its so hard because there's really no model but the EURO to use for this, lol. I don't like using the NAM, but it had caught on to this inland runner idea a heck of a lot quicker than the GFS. I can't really feel comfortable using the GFS either given what just transpired over the past 2 days with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well the NAM does this by having that elongated front with a weak wave move north and then stalls it as new energy comes around and develops the final wave along the front. Part of the NAM overzealous amounts is due to the length of time we have such strong convergence along that front. I'm not saying this setup is correct, just saying why it shows this. Even the euro would argue spot 3" plus IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ya pfreak, that seems to sum it up well. If its front loaded its a rain bomb, well NW into VT. I'm not sure what climo favors in this set up There's really no "climo" for this one, haha. Climo to me would be not having a low track over a few mountain ranges, but it seems very possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm not saying this setup is correct, just saying why it shows this. Even the euro would argue spot 3" plus IMO. Yeah if we end up with 24 hours of that moist convergence, big QPF isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 C/NNE. Snow with a changeover to rain towards the latter portion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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