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Wednesday Soaker Discussing


CT Rain

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As far as I'm concerned with the 2nd low along the front...it really doesn't do anything except for maybe Upstate NY and some enhanced mositure for upslope snowfall in the northern mountains. For 99% of the posters here, it is basically an irrelevant feature outside of maybe some flurries or very brief light snow at the end.

 

If it somehow trended wayyyy deeper, then it might provide a period of steady snow enough to get some accumulation, but there is currently no guidance that supports such an outcome right now.

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We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye.

Note the timestamp...it had a mild windex look, but it wasn't classic.

Pretty intense PVA with and just behind the 2nd front...could be a bit windexy. Doesn't look classic, but definitely probably lots of flurries and the usual western slope snow showers. It gets pretty unstable in the mid-levels.

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Note the timestamp...it had a mild windex look, but it wasn't classic.

 

 

This is why moving away from the old interpretation of WINDEX is being pushed. I mean with all the levels we have available now it's just too coarse to resolve the events on the edge. BTV is pushing to get their snow squall parameter up on the SPC mesoanalysis site in the future, which should help in the near term.

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This is why moving away from the old interpretation of WINDEX is being pushed. I mean with all the levels we have available now it's just too coarse to resolve the events on the edge. BTV is pushing to get their snow squall parameter up on the SPC mesoanalysis site in the future, which should help in the near term.

They did revise the WINDEX parameters a bit maybe 8-10 years back? The original ones from the early 1990s were based on the old NGM model. But yeah, they could probably do another form of revision now with even more mesoscale data versus even 10 years ago.

Yesterday would have been better if we had better low level moisture (prob much more defined lines of squalls), but the ML lapse rates were good enough to still produce some scattered pockets of heavier snow showers.

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We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye.

Keep trolling away Steve. I mentioned 2-3 days ago about the "wintry appeal" to yesterday/today. I'm sure you have the brains to go seek those posts out for yourself. I pointed out that post since it was in the face of 4 others saying otherwise on what a model showed. I'm not surpsised you took offense to my post since you have a history of it. So you agree with Kevin/Dryslots interpretation of the Euro as opposed to Will/Brian/Phil/Scotts? I'm sorry but I'll choose the latter any day and every day.

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We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye.

Yeah, Well, To a few folks surprise on here apparently, Some of us are not as dumb as we may appear

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They did revise the WINDEX parameters a bit maybe 8-10 years back? The original ones from the early 1990s were based on the old NGM model. But yeah, they could probably do another form of revision now with even more mesoscale data versus even 10 years ago.

Yesterday would have been better if we had better low level moisture (prob much more defined lines of squalls), but the ML lapse rates were good enough to still produce some scattered pockets of heavier snow showers.

 

I think we can do a fairly good job of picking out the potential events. It's usually fronts coming down from the NW with good PVA accompanying it as a "base" line so to speak. The other details can be inferred from soundings.

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I think we can do a fairly good job of picking out the potential events. It's usually fronts coming down from the NW with good PVA accompanying it as a "base" line so to speak. The other details can be inferred from soundings.

Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago.

Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter.

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Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago.

Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter.

There was a lot more weenieism surroundng this storm than usual...especially given both the time of year and the lead time. I think a lot of it is people want to jump into winter after pretty much no interesting weather for 8 months. We had a pretty dull summer.

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Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago.

Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter.

 

I think you misunderstood me. This is in reference to the squalls last night...I wasn't clear. I meant that we don't have to use the old WINDEX check list...you can recognize certain synoptic setups that may cause them.

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Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago.

Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter.

Overreaction. It's just the usual met response to weenie posts. Let's not create a faux met vs hobbyist war. We've never wanted a met only forum, but at the same time we can't let weenieology run rampant.
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There was a lot more weenieism surroundng this storm than usual...especially given both the time of year and the lead time. I think a lot of it is people want to jump into winter after pretty much no interesting weather for 8 months. We had a pretty dull summer.

Same thing, different year. Everyone is salivating for that first storm that pops up at d10. A few runs show snow and then it's time to emotionally lock in. This time of year is always like NFL preseason...lots of fumbles, missed blocks, and shanks.
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