Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wants to clip us with the follow up sw along the front2nd wave idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 37F and falling.yeah the "frozen ground" flooding doesn’t seem likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wants to clip us with the follow up sw along the front Don't feed the wild animals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wondering (slightly OT) if the Euro heading for some sort of durational mix event in the extended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The rock hard bone dry surface runoff does seem likely though. Just remember the old Swamp Yankee adage about streams being full before the first big winter snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 yeah the "frozen ground" flooding doesn’t seem likely Yeah...it's pretty much just the top layer freezing up at this point. A little rain/warmth and it'll thaw right out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 2nd wave idea not even close. at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 2nd wave idea Yeah, going to have to watch that the next several cylcles, Every run has had it but that has been trending west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You know ... again with this odd-ball looking double -barrel low structure. It may work out that way, but DPVA is back way down the coast at the time these operational runs are spinning up a low along the baroclinic axis ... way up where the flow is still rather laminar and non differentiating. That...just looks weird. Yet, they do have a low associated with the DPVA and the trough advection mechanics, down in the Carolina area (72 hours). If for some reason that N low is over-done, than there is less warm advection/transport into SNE, and the low down the coast becomes dominant ... Hate to say, but that would significanly alter the sensible impact of this system, particularly for western areas. L Long shot, but that lead low in the double -barrel structure looks suspiciously overdone, even in the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 not even close. at all. I wish people would look at models before commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 euro is still pretty far west...over the CT river in VT. To be a total nitpicker, almost all of the CT River is in NH and not in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 not even close. at all. Yeah, going to have to watch that the next several cylcles, Every run has had it but that has been trending west as well I wish people would look at models before commenting.Come on people, step up your game. Scott and Phil know what they're talking about . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You know ... again with this odd-ball looking double -barrel low structure. It may work out that way, but DPVA is back way down the coast at the time these operational runs are spinning up a low along the baroclinic axis ... way up where the flow is still rather laminar and non differentiating. That...just looks weird. Yet, they do have a low associated with the DPVA and the trough advection mechanics, down in the Carolina area (72 hours). If for some reason that N low is over-done, than there is less warm advection/transport into SNE, and the low down the coast becomes dominant ... Hate to say, but that would significanly alter the sensible impact of this system, particularly for western areas. L Long shot, but that lead low in the double -barrel structure looks suspiciously overdone, even in the Euro run. i think the northern low is partially in response to the height falls / pva associated with the northern stream energy..acting on the existing baroclinic axis. the strung out nature makes some sense if the two don't phase until north of this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 To be a total nitpicker, almost all of the CT River is in NH and not in VT. Lol I was thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 To be a total nitpicker, almost all of the CT River is in NH and not in VT. haha! didn't know that. thought it was split down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro is more strung out and less phased than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Come on people, step up your game.really dude? Jeff? You need to back down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yeah, going to have to watch that the next several cylcles, Every run has had it but that has been trending west as wellSome say not a chance. It's been there on all models in some form or another. Just gonna have to watch . Won't have clear idea on it till Tuesday probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The euro has that second low pretty west and Deeper each run it seems. Is there anything too it? How much differnt a scenario is it than when you guys say that the second wave is the one to key on or mess up the first low.could this be a time when we benefit from the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Don't feed the wild animals. Well on the phone it looks that way with my old eyes, if not then its pretty strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I think precip is overdone on this Let's see if any climo site gets 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You might want to specify dates when talking about a "second wave"...I believe some of you are referring to the storm out in clown range around 12/2-3 versus the 2nd low pressure area riding along the front on Wednesday...which is pretty negligible at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Come on people, step up your game. Scott and Phil know what they're talking about .. Wtf? On the phone dude chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Some say not a chance. It's been there on all models in some form or another. Just gonna have to watch . Won't have clear idea on it till Tuesday probably If you look at models, you'd see there is little to no chance of anything more than flakes down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the euro low track looks similar to the nam. if that happens coastal areas could see TS conditions I guess not such a great day to be flying LHR-BOS. Would the winds be strong enough on Wed afternoon to shut down BOS do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 . Wtf? On the phone dude chill Well 4 METs agree that there was no follow up wave and yet you agreed with the one person who said there was and that person is not exactly educated in the field like the other 4. You see where I am coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Sorry second wave meaning the trailing low on wed system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well 4 METs agree that there was no follow up wave and yet you agreed with the one person who said there was and that person is not exactly educated in the field like the other 4. You see where I am coming from?no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 There is a slight hang back of moisture as the low moves NNE along the front is response to the energy coming around the backside, but that is different then the follow up low modeled yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 no Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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