Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Looked at the satellite pics. Thing would fill up the Gulf of Mexico. Would have to go way north of the Pike - maybe even past route 2.Ground zero is a city of 2 million plus Visakapatnam the elevation is 16 feet, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Meanwhile Josh is intercepting his third cyclone in a week and that's rapidly intensying in Luzon. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Ground zero is a city of 2 million plus Visakapatnam the elevation is 16 feet, yikes And the guy who wrote the discussion for Katrina would probably just have to say :IF YOU STICK AROUND FOR THIS, YOU WON'T BE READING ANOTHER NWS DISCUSSION". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 lol I tried looking for it Really??? How hard? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40158-the-early-speculation-on-winter-2013-14/page-36? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Really??? How hard?Kristina Abernathy just left the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Cheryl Lemke and Jill Brown too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Epic model fail occurring from 00z last night. Euro epic fail for NYC and Hudson Valley. GFS for ern and SE mass it appears. Euro was most egregious. Really bad. NAM did not have a clue until 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Kristina Abernathy just left the board What do you mean by that? (the weather channel woman?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Epic model fail occurring from 00z last night. Euro epic fail for NYC and Hudson Valley. GFS for ern and SE mass it appears. Euro was most egregious. Really bad. NAM did not have a clue until 18z today. Yeah I'm shocked. We had the euro agreeing with its ensembles inside 72 hrs. Good thing it's not snow lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 What do you mean by that? (the weather channel woman?)whoosh, funniest thing I read tonight was by Radarman, said when he saw Phailin thought it was about the Atlantic hurricane season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Epic model fail occurring from 00z last night. Euro epic fail for NYC and Hudson Valley. GFS for ern and SE mass it appears. Euro was most egregious. Really bad. NAM did not have a clue until 18z today. That would be quite the shellacking for the eastern slopes of the Apps in PA if this were winter. Impressive moisture feed into that area...Harrisburg International Airport already at 3.47" and steady redeveloping heavy rain bands. Decent amount of observing stations in that 1.5-3.0+ range right now there and climbing quickly. Almost looks like a blocked flow into the Appalachians or something on SE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Kristina Abernathy just left the board I miss her so much, she was amazing... I wonder what Kristina is doing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Ground zero is a city of 2 million plus Visakapatnam the elevation is 16 feet, yikes Shades of Katrina... storm surge will be huge since the storm is so massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 I'm not sold on this yet. It may be cloudy and cool, but not sold on a washout even by you. It might only be a Friday deal. Caution flags FTW. Even today should be fine. If this were winter, Kevin would have been ignoring every post about the storm and just model Hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Caution flags FTW. Even today should be fine. If this were winter, Kevin would have been ignoring every post about the storm and just model Hugging. i had a deep feeling it might end up dry. Just cloudy and cool and deep fall feel. First flakes before Helloween? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Looks quite chilly in on all the ensembles in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Actually it's not even cloudy lol. Sunny, fun filled weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Looks quite chilly in on all the ensembles in the longer range. I don't think it's crazy at all to say we all see first freeze and very real chance of first flakes before end of Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I don't think it's crazy at all to say we all see first freeze and very real chance of first flakes before end of Oct :weenie: :weenie: Kevin--I have a question for you in the lawn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Was up in Monson and Wilbraham yesterday visiting business opps and stumbled upon great shots of the TOR damage. Still amazing to see 2 years later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 I actually think the patten will yo-yo a bit after the 20th based on the ensemble and operational runs. While it may avg cool, it becomes more active and it probably will have some cutters or pseudo SWFE deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I actually think the patten will yo-yo a bit after the 20th based on the ensemble and operational runs. While it may avg cool, it becomes more active and it probably will have some cutters or pseudo SWFE deals.How about a coastal with inland snow chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 How about a coastal with inland snow chances? I wouldn't expect a 10/29/11 redux. Let's not get ridiculous. Seeing flakes or a coating is much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Totally sunny day lol..Some forecasts had rain all day today 24 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Totally sunny day lol..Some forecasts had rain all day today 24 hours ago Awful model fail..especially euro from 00z yesterday. GFS was too wet today here as well. These cutoffs in the warm season (atmosphere still similar to the warm season this time of year) and big high to the north are always a nightmare to figure out. Unlike the winter when you have a nice thermal gradient that acts to enhance stratiform precip, convective blobs plus dry air advecting in mean havoc for the models. One of the reasons I wasn't sold on weekend rain, but I did think today would be wet south of I-90 as of a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 epic model fail. Other than some drizzle, we've had parlty cloudy skies...euro had 2 inches of rain here up until yesterday...hopefully the euro is not this bad this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 I went back and looked at what caused this pattern. Basically I don't think it could have been well forecasted and no it was not from a recurving Typhoon. There is a piece of energy that cuts off and digs ENE of Hawaii. Loop this through hr 84 and notice the cutoff that develops. It only helps to serve as a rex block and help build a ridge to the north. That ridge cannot go anywhere thanks to the Greenland block which BTW also can be partly to blame from a big low south of Greenland. Once this pattern is in place the Aleutian area low keeps the EPO negative. We'll see how long it lasts. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/ensloopwide.html Loop this and notice ENE of Hawaii by the 16th and watch the ridging unfold. Wave breaking FTW. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dtpres/dtpres_npac_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Source of downtime is still not know at this time. Wow is still looking into it with the hosting company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 What an absolute mantown day Sunday. Football at 4:30 and 7:30 baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Totally sunny day lol..Some forecasts had rain all day today 24 hours agoexpected apologies to LL can be posted here by you and Brian 90210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.