CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Well this sums it up for now. Enjoy the warmth, it's the only warmth you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 It's a bit strange to see a pretty diffuse vortex but the jet displaced north at the mid-latitudes over most of the globe anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Torch-tastic Octobers filling up the analog list right now. Pretty much every single October on the analogs was a torch except 1992. No reason to think at this point that this year will not follow. Looks warm through mid-month. Going to be tough to get enough cold late in the month to offset it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Going back to your question last night. We now get ECMWF short, extended, and ensemble MOS bulletins into our Graphical Forecast Editor in an image. The EPS text bulletin is nice because in addition to the mean, we get the max value, min value, 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles. This is what it looks like for Wednesday, with comparisons to the MAV and MET. MET MAV Extended ECMWF EPS You can see that the MAV and MET typically preform better on the marine zones, but as we bias correct these they should improve. For some reason I notice the ECMWF MOS can have funky min temps, wants to make SW NH the coldest spot and warm in central ME. Unnaturally too, like a dipole or something rather than a local radiative thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Going back to your question last night. We now get ECMWF short, extended, and ensemble MOS bulletins into our Graphical Forecast Editor in an image. The EPS text bulletin is nice because in addition to the mean, we get the max value, min value, 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles. This is what it looks like for Wednesday, with comparisons to the MAV and MET. MET MET.jpg MAV MAV.jpg Extended ECMWF ECE.jpg EPS ECM.jpg You can see that the MAV and MET typically preform better on the marine zones, but as we bias correct these they should improve. For some reason I notice the ECMWF MOS can have funky min temps, wants to make SW NH the coldest spot and warm in central ME. Unnaturally too, like a dipole or something rather than a local radiative thing. Interesting there. I never actually looked at euro MOS, although I think we get it as well for the guys doing energy forecasting. Usually model srfc temps will suffice for what I need to do regarding forecasting...and it only really matters in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 It's a bit strange to see a pretty diffuse vortex but the jet displaced north at the mid-latitudes over most of the globe anyway. the global circulation has been "off" since july. HM and others have posted about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I'm ok with the October hemispheric pattern being progged...its going to grow Siberian snow cover rapidly with the lower anomalies over there. Euro ensembles look nice for that...embrace the torch October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Interesting there. I never actually looked at euro MOS, although I think we get it as well for the guys doing energy forecasting. Usually model srfc temps will suffice for what I need to do regarding forecasting...and it only really matters in winter. This is fairly new for us in GFE, so this will be the first winter that temps are available to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 the global circulation has been "off" since july. HM and others have posted about it The global circulation is still pretty whacked and has been since mid-summer. I have never seen the subsidence belt of the Hadley Cell reach so poleward before in the N PAC. It is still unofficial, but there may have been a record NPI set and record SST change from June to July when this occurred (of course today's daily SST maps show a substantial cooling in the NE PAC). Even now, look where the strongest +u anomalies are at 850mb in the western Tropical Pacific and the giant "black hole" on water vapor over the ME/Africa. So, let's hope this next round of tropical forcing can perform more normally this time in the Atlantic...but...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 on the ridge retrogression in july: I remember staring at the satellite with my jaw-dropped. The easterlies of the tropical latitudes were slamming into the East Coast. The damage has been done, too, on the SST and subsequent wave behavior across the North Atlantic / Pacific. It is quite possible we won't recover, in time for winter, from this unusual circulation. The last time something like this happened I believe was in 2004 and possibly in the early 90s. But this year by far took over as the strongest ever SST shift/NPI in NE PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Discuss the boring pattern here, you tube style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 My turn to watch Kevin squirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 My turn to watch Kevin squirm. This pattern should make him happy...no threats of October snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Wouldn't the upcoming pattern be favorable for a US TC threat? I know we need something to form first, but could we hope for "If you build it, they will come"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 This thread should be locked until midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I love how some are trying to make this hellacious Oct seem ok and normal and that it doesn't matter. I hope we are not sitting here looking at the same disaster 30 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Wouldn't the upcoming pattern be favorable for a US TC threat? I know we need something to form first, but could we hope for "If you build it, they will come"? sure, but there's not even a depression anywhere...everything has been suppressed not just in the Atlantic basin, but globally too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 AC humming and beaches packed for this torch October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 sure, but there's not even a depression anywhere...everything has been suppressed not just in the Atlantic basin, but globally too. Sure it's way out in fantasy land but the 06z GFS at least offers a glimmer of hope that the pig of a Bermuda ridge hangs out for the forceable future. Nevermind the TC north of the islands. Nice to see a return to a more active weather pattern period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I love how some are trying to make this hellacious Oct seem ok and normal and that it doesn't matter. I hope we are not sitting here looking at the same disaster 30 days from now Do you have any proof that it matters to winter? Enlighten us poor misinformed peasants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 AC humming and beaches packed for this torch October You know, given this ocean low and long period swell that will build today and possible 80s by midweek, rip currents may actually be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Sure it's way out in fantasy land but the 06z GFS at least offers a glimmer of hope that the pig of a Bermuda ridge hangs out for the forceable future. Nevermind the TC north of the islands. Nice to see a return to a more active weather pattern period. a more likely scenario is a wetter pattern and maybe a disorganized mess comes at us via the tropics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Funny how we just gave up on the last few days of September as being discussion-worthy and have moved into an equally boring October discussion. Gorgeous day out there today though. 61.4/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Do you have any proof that it matters to winter? Enlighten us poor misinformed peasants. If there's not a little worry and concern creeping into your mind about winter then more power to you. It's not time to panic or go crazy, but a little worry should start to enter the conversation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 If there's not a little worry and concern creeping into your mind about winter then more power to you. It's not time to panic or go crazy, but a little worry should start to enter the conversation I hope that the torch lasts right through mid-December. Then bring me a few good snow storms in January and then right back to a torch by the start of February. Who needs cold if it's not producing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 If there's not a little worry and concern creeping into your mind about winter then more power to you. It's not time to panic or go crazy, but a little worry should start to enter the conversation embrace the warmth. just taste it. green grass...flowers blooming...warm, October sun. perfection-licious-ness. make it the best day ever kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 a more likely scenario is a wetter pattern and maybe a disorganized mess comes at us via the tropics.... Hoping we get back to that ring of fire setup like what we saw in June with multiple pieces of energy rotating around the western periphery of the ridge producing prolific rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I hope that the torch lasts right through mid-December. Then bring me a few good snow storms in January and then right back to a torch by the start of February. Who needs cold if it's not producing snow. ugh. you may need to follow Forky back to the NYC threads shortly. once 11/15 rolls around...it's go time...and it stays that way until 4/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 it's been two whole months since everyone's last +3 or better monthly departure... let's do it this october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 ugh. you may need to follow Forky back to the NYC threads shortly. once 11/15 rolls around...it's go time...and it stays that way until 4/1 We have major issues in that forum during winter time. Primarily because the setups that are good for snows on Long Island and NYC are not as favorable for inland sections and vice versa. And then you have folks like myself that live 30+ miles NW of NYC that sometime feel homeless since our posts get smothered by the majority of posters living near the coast. I don't like the NYC forum, never have and probably never will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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