ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I posted the top 10 warmest and coldest October composites for SNE in the winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 If we have the same shape and orientation of the PV as we did in 2011 come 10/31 modeled on all ensembles and weekly solutions, then I may be more concerned. I will also add that we may not have the PV on our side of the globe all month, but that is ok if we still try to see some ridging into AK like the end of the Euro ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Prefectly clear here at Logan, all LR modeling FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 There is always the GFS op record cold shot on hr 384 to cheer you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Going somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 There is always the GFS op record cold shot on hr 384 to cheer you up. I was wondering if the DY10GFS license plate was taken yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 If we have the same shape and orientation of the PV as we did in 2011 come 10/31 modeled on all ensembles and weekly solutions, then I may be more concerned. I will also add that we may not have the PV on our side of the globe all month, but that is ok if we still try to see some ridging into AK like the end of the Euro ensembles show.As poorly as the Euro ens performed with this torch the next 10 days I don't think anyone can have any faith they have a clue. They showed a mild period and instead we may be left with the warmest start to Oct in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 I was wondering if the DY10GFS license plate was taken yet. That's a great idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 As poorly as the Euro ens performed with this torch the next 10 days I don't think anyone can have any faith they have a clue. They showed a mild period and instead we may be left with the warmest start to Oct in history Of the 51 members there were bound to be a few weenie runs to temper the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 As poorly as the Euro ens performed with this torch the next 10 days I don't think anyone can have any faith they have a clue. They showed a mild period and instead we may be left with the warmest start to Oct in historycheck the winter thread and Will's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 As poorly as the Euro ens performed with this torch the next 10 days I don't think anyone can have any faith they have a clue. They showed a mild period and instead we may be left with the warmest start to Oct in history Well I didn't say cool or anything. It's still a mild look, but my point is that H5 pattern wouldn't be horrible in the winter if that happened verbatim. I know October is a winter month to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Going somewhere?picking up Momma from her trip to San Diego Vail Omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Lol at all the people with late fall coats and jackets on here in Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Of the 51 members there were bound to be a few weenie runs to temper the warmth. They def showed a warmer pattern overall. I know some of us discussed that the longwave pattern supported warmth and that we wouldn't be surprised if the ensembles warmed up as we got closer. The GEFS were touting a cold start to October...they got completely schooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 They def showed a warmer pattern overall. I know some of us discussed that the longwave pattern supported warmth and that we wouldn't be surprised if the ensembles warmed up as we got closer. The GEFS were touting a cold start to October...they got completely schooled. Moving the supercomputer from Tolland might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Ridge axis shunted east 12z GFS. Allows -10C 850 temps to creap into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Well I didn't say cool or anything. It's still a mild look, but my point is that H5 pattern wouldn't be horrible in the winter if that happened verbatim. I know October is a winter month to you. ...but March isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 ...but March isn't.I distinctly remember your post last week that said the Euro ens were not showing a torch at all. And what are we left with? One of the worst Oct torches in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I'm ok with the October hemispheric pattern being progged...its going to grow Siberian snow cover rapidly with the lower anomalies over there. Euro ensembles look nice for that...embrace the torch October. Indeed ... with the onset of +AO mode over the next 2 to 3 weeks (which appears destined considering all sources), the snow event frequency at high latitude will be elevated. In fact, though the AO is slightly negative at the moment, it is currently rising and already just in the last 2 days, much of Siberia has covered. ( http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ ). Patience. People want it sooner rather than later, but let the hemisphere marinade for awhile. I'd like to see a kind of intense mid-autumn gradient over Canada, with snow flashing over the landscape heading into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I distinctly remember your post last week that said the Euro ens were not showing a torch at all. And what are we left with? One of the worst Oct torches in history They were warm but not all out torch... but they showed the potential. And stop. You sound ridiculous. Look at the record highs in October... many upper 80s and low 90s for the Hartford area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 They were warm but not all out torch... but they showed the potential. And stop. You sound ridiculous. Look at the record highs in October... many upper 80s and low 90s for the Hartford area. what was the monthly anomaly in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Just saw this on facebook. There's a 3 alarm fire in Quincy with smoke so thick it's showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 embrace the warmth. just taste it. green grass...flowers blooming...warm, October sun. perfection-licious-ness. make it the best day ever kevin. I'm enjoying the torch so much, I've got a pool getting dug as I type. Prefectly clear here at Logan, all LR modeling FTL Neat shot, Steve. Meanwhile, heavy, heavy leaf drop taking place at the Pit. Seems they are dropping as quickly as they're turning. Can make for a bust of a foliage season when that happens. 64.3/52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 what was the monthly anomaly in 2007? It was something like +6 for BDL. 1963, 1971 and 1947 also had similar monthly anomalies in October across the region. Those winters turned out alright. Kevin is not really concerned about winter...he is more concerned that October isn't behaving to early December expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Just saw this on facebook. There's a 3 alarm fire in Quincy with smoke so thick it's showing up on radar. Very low CC, that indicates a definite smoke plume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 It was something like +6 for BDL. 1963, 1971 and 1947 also had similar monthly anomalies in October across the region. Those winters turned out alright. Kevin is not really concerned about winter...he is more concerned that October isn't behaving to early December expectations. it was +6 on the nose after doing a bit of digging around... this month will be warm but not that warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Yep ... there does appear to be a bit of hotober en route. Hard to say how warm it may get. Machine guidance may limit things out in time because of climo, more so than in the ides of summer. Also, synoptically there could frontal boundary diffused in the area, that might try to shunt the 15+C, 850 S. If that happens than no... we'd be more like at or above as opposed to just above. But if it really gets to 17C in the mixing depth it will get into the 80s. I remember in December of 1999, we were 75F in December in a ridge pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 And what are we left with? One of the worst Oct torches in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 nice blizzard over the eastern dakotas late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Color in my maples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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