IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 18z GFS agrees with the 18z NAM for Thursday/Friday noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 We are really going to have to monitor the exact track of the low later in the week. I can't remember the last time in June that a low as deep as the 990's tracked through the MA region with severe parameters as strong as the forecast soundings showing in the warm sector. DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 There's going to be some major trouble if we get more widespread 2-3" amounts, the GGEM is quite startling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 There's going to be some major trouble if we get more widespread 2-3" amounts, the GGEM is quite startling. The latest guidance has been shifting the heaviest rain north. Lets hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Up to 1.00" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 FWIW, today's figure of 0.88" in NYC through 7 pm brings the June total to 7.37". That's the 9th highest figure on record for June. The monthly record for NYC is 10.27", which was set in 2003. Many of the summers in which June experienced excessive rainfall wound up cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Been under this yellow batch for about 30 minutes now and it has been very heavy. Looks to break once this passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 FWIW, today's figure of 0.88" in NYC through 7 pm brings the June total to 7.37". That's the 9th highest figure on record for June. The monthly record for NYC is 10.27", which was set in 2003. Many of the summers in which June experienced excessive rainfall wound up cooler than normal. And it's only 6/10. 20 days left to beat the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Been under this yellow batch for about 30 minutes now and it has been very heavy. Looks to break once this passes All of that rain in eastern PA and MD is going to come through here overnight. Both the GFS and the NAM had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Anyone else think we can see some serious storms on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 1.50 inches here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Absolutely pouring here in Dobbs Ferry. +RA 60.6/57 .83" total rainfall I think the rainfall at the local Wunderground station I use may be underestimated. It seems as if we've had more, although White Plains ASOS has recorded a similar amount of liquid so it may indeed be accurate. I'm expecting to pick up a lot more precipitation with the Nor'easter Thursday and Friday as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Central Park breaks its June rainfall record by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 1.56" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 FWIW, today's figure of 0.88" in NYC through 7 pm brings the June total to 7.37". That's the 9th highest figure on record for June. The monthly record for NYC is 10.27", which was set in 2003. Many of the summers in which June experienced excessive rainfall wound up cooler than normal. July following a the top ten wettest June... year.....temp...max/min 2003....75.8.....94/63 2009....72.7.....86/58 1903....74.6.....95/57 1972....77.2.....94/56 1989....75.0.....96/60 2006....77.9.....95/61 1887....78.2.....96/64 1975....75.8.....93/58 1938....76.6.....93/57 1981....72.3.....na/na ave......75.6 1870- 2009 ave......76.1.....95/59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 00z NAM has the rain persisting till about 09z with up to an addiontal 0.50". The radar would argue for 1-2" tonight assuming the stuff east of DC holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 00z NAM has the rain persisting till about 09z with up to an addiontal 0.50". The radar would argue for 1-2" tonight assuming the stuff east of DC holds together. I just don't see us getting all that much more tonight. the NAM has a little over a 1/4 inch and the radar would support that. The heavy stuff isn't really moving this way and its also weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ugh... Another 1-3" inches of rain for Thursday/Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 I just don't see us getting all that much more tonight. the NAM has a little over a 1/4 inch and the radar would support that. The heavy stuff isn't really moving this way and its also weakening Not to be rude but the stuff down in DE/MD is coming straight for northern NJ and NYC Large swath of 0.25" + per hour heading our way in the next 2-3 hours. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Scattered thunderstorms during the early afternoon or late morning per the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ugh... Another 1-3" inches of rain for Thursday/Friday gfsNE_sfc_prec_078.gif gfsNE_con_pwat_078.gif gfsNE_sfc_prec_081.gif Yeah all the models have been showing this for the past day and half or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 1.58" on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 If Thursday trends north just a hair, that is a tasty tornadic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Anyone else think we can see some serious storms on Thursday? i think there is the potential for an organized severe weather threat, including the potential for tornadoes, across the mid atlantic states extending northward into southeast pa and central new jersey. nyc currently looks too far north on almost all models. the surface low redevelops near or just south of nyc's latitude which pinches off the warm front to our south. farther south over the mid atlantic, as the warm front lifts northward the models are indicative of very impressive kinematic and thermodynamic juxtaposition with the (probably overdone) nam showing 2000+j/kg of surface based cape coinciding with 0-3km helicity values over 300 m/2/s2. as a result on the convective graphics you can see the supercell composite lighting up over the mid atlantic states...not coincidentally near or just south of the aforementioned warm front. we will have to see if these model outputs continue but it looks very interesting right now across that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 0z GFS is also north with the storm for Thursday http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Looks obviously different at the end-game than the NAM, but the GFS is a little farther north than the NAM Point is, its going to absolutely pour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 It's raining really hard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Rainfall through midnight was 1.34" in NYC. That brings the monthly figure to 7.83", which now ranks 7th highest for June. Records go back to 1869. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Picked up 1.33" of rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 0z GFS is also north with the storm for Thursday http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif So if the low trends further north, we could see an enhanced tornado risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So if the low trends further north, we could see an enhanced tornado risk? Yes, im really worried about this setup (and i love storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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