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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Hey guys....there doesn't seem to be an active general thread (and there is not longer a storm threat) so I'm asking this here: Any familiarity with the microclimate in Mancester VT? Bennington County. Going there for a couple days around the new year and curious if they get upslope since the ground is so brown over here. They are east of the Tatonics and West of the Greens. Anyone familiar with the situation there? Thanks

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Pretty happy with how the NAM at 18z started at least. Stronger with the more northern system and a smdige west breaking up what had happened with the 12z a little.

I'm starting to think we want this storm to be a total awful whiff. Even keep the cirrus offshore.

We might be able to sprout a miller b kinda 6-10 deal on Wednesday

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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That's in my region ...being in the ALB market, and it seems to me the obs from that route 7 corridor of Bennington County tend to be underwhelming. I'm sure they do ok, but any Upslope is east of where the population centers are ...on those cross roads that go over the Greens such as route 9, route 11, etc. Places like Woodford get buried, but towns like Bennington and Manchester not really.

Hey guys....there doesn't seem to be an active general thread (and there is not longer a storm threat) so I'm asking this here: Any familiarity with the microclimate in Mancester VT? Bennington County. Going there for a couple days around the new year and curious if they get upslope since the ground is so brown over here. They are east of the Tatonics and West of the Greens. Anyone familiar with the situation there? Thanks

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EastBayWx

EastBayWx

Posted
Posted

Hope they cut him down before the neighbors see him

You could not be more wrong with your analysis of my analysis....

snapback.pngEastBayWx, on 16 December 2010 - 03:44 PM, said:

In a best case scenario, this storm has 12/19/2009 written all over it in terms of the distribution of snow for SNE. Late development will minimize impacts over the mid-Atlantic. It is almost comical to watch the model hugging chaos over the past several days. Look at the current system well suppressed over the ocean with the snow shield a good 75-100 miles off the New ENgland/ LI coast. A track over Block Island or Boston is virtually improbable given the blocking present last winter and once again this winter. The pattern remains suppressed and a track anywhere near the Benchmark would be welcomed. I am much more fearful of the SE of the BM solutions than one that comes anywhere near BOS or Block Island. At this point, I-95 to I-195 has a shot at snowfall, but I'd pick Chatham if I had to pick a bullseye.

Ginx user_popup.pngPosted Yesterday, 03:55 PM

you could not be more wrong in your analysis

2010/ 2011 Total Snowfall

November 8 2.0 Total 2.0

Summer's sweet and she brings me water

But give me Winter, that old icy whore

Summer lies meek and follows orders

Winter cries "Me!" and pulls you through the door

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

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Posted

Is it possible that the models are mishandling the Gulf of Alaska ULL? I mean it still looks to be headed towards the SSW. I mean it even looks like the ULL is further south then what the models show in 24 hours. Also that energy just off the WA coastline could be the disturbance that effects the whole handling of the phasing situation. Any thoughts on this?

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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You could not be more wrong with your analysis of my analysis....

snapback.pngEastBayWx, on 16 December 2010 - 03:44 PM, said:

In a best case scenario, this storm has 12/19/2009 written all over it in terms of the distribution of snow for SNE. Late development will minimize impacts over the mid-Atlantic. It is almost comical to watch the model hugging chaos over the past several days. Look at the current system well suppressed over the ocean with the snow shield a good 75-100 miles off the New ENgland/ LI coast. A track over Block Island or Boston is virtually improbable given the blocking present last winter and once again this winter. The pattern remains suppressed and a track anywhere near the Benchmark would be welcomed. I am much more fearful of the SE of the BM solutions than one that comes anywhere near BOS or Block Island. At this point, I-95 to I-195 has a shot at snowfall, but I'd pick Chatham if I had to pick a bullseye.

Ginx user_popup.pngPosted Yesterday, 03:55 PM

you could not be more wrong in your analysis

2010/ 2011 Total Snowfall

November 8 2.0 Total 2.0

Summer's sweet and she brings me water

But give me Winter, that old icy whore

Summer lies meek and follows orders

Winter cries "Me!" and pulls you through the door

Well played but no need to beat the dead horse.:deadhorse:

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I have no idea how the RUC is outside of 12...no pattern or experience this year but its interesting to me that it's consistently slower with the system coming down north of the Dakotas v the 12z NAM. Stronger for sure, slower/west. Also looks like it wants to clear the path up here earlier. Again the problem is we've gone so far on to the miss side even a 100-150 mile shift won't help much.

I am surprised looking at the NAM/GFS that the two more southern vortmax's are kind of hard to pick out the first 12-18 hours. Kind of unusual at this stage and I wonder if this is why we are seeing so much flopping. For whatever reason the off hour NAM runs seem to catch these things, let's keep the fingers crossed as we absolutely need to see a good trend now.

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Good news is we have the 18z Nam in 30 min!

oh gag -keep it.

In a kind of deviant way this all funny. It really could not have been scripted as a cruel hoax any better.

Actually, scratch that - it could have been... The worst of all time was that blown Blizzard Warning way back in January of 1987 - the one compared to the Blizzard of '78 by KTAN? Many of you were not even born; it could be worse here.

Bar none ... that cannot be exceeded in terms of sense of loss, utter anger, and for lack of better word even sadness.

3 days before the event there were ticker alerts running across the bottom of the TV every hour it seemed, waring of a massive event. 2 days before the event Blizzard Watches were flying for all of eastern CT/RI and eastern MA, with WSW everywhere else. Tickers were warning of 24+ inches of snow and damage to infrustruture from wind, and where wind and wetter snow at the coast would surely mean extended/extensive power outages. Groceries ... flying off the shelves, MASS HYSTERIA was underway. The day before impact, watches converted to warnings.

I didn't have access to the forecast models back then, but I wonder what model pulled the plug first.

The eve before the biggest event possibly of all time, big noodles of snow/rain/sleet were flitting by in the street lamp outside the Acton-Boxborough High School gymnasium. Between pick up games I would go outside and check, and noted that the temperature bombed down like 20 and it was suddenly rather frigid, and the air was dry, and nothing was falling, and it was eerily still. The butterscotch sky of an hour and a half ago was only slightly tinted yellow over head, and black upon the horizons. Something just "felt" wrong, and I wasn't a trained Met yet, I didn't have weather models, just an odd sensation I was diligently ingoring that something just was not right.

Harvey Leonard comes on at 11pm and rammed the dagger through, " ..It now appears the worst of this will impact the Cape and the Islands". What had been 18-24" "conservative" snow graphics for days were reduced to 2-4" between 5pm and 11pm that evening alone - essentially, right WHEN the storm was supposed to be underway. I didn't even let him finish the report - I went to bed in disbelief, too much momentum, it had to be wrong.

In the morning while getting ready for school that wasn't canceled ... there were some light flurries in the air. Maybe a small accumulation had blown up against tires and curbs, but bear ground was abound. It was 9F, I remember that, as the NNW wind was a cheek number and the walk was a mile in direct opposition - so to add to the insult was actual physical torment, not just emotional - haha. So in the end 2-4" was actually probably too liberal based on the unbelievableness of so many days of momentum and certitude crumbling in fragile awareness. A robot might have forecasted a dusting NW of the Cape Cod Canel and he would have been right, but no human could believe it.

OH, man I never experienced a let down since then, and never will.

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