2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[IsentropicLift]

I don't know -- something like that would have to be studied over decades though.  The natural variability of events could meander maximums all over the region east of the Rockies, and it wouldn't necessarily be tied into anything other that chaos.   Heck, GW could play a role for all we know.

 

But we don't.  Not without a lot of science and peer review of those findings, do hypothesis born theories.   As just another talking head on a non-refereed forum, I'd have to say that the distribution of convection frequencies is probably connected to the "character" of the PNAP (Perennial North American Pattern) bias at any given time.   But that's a guess. 

Interesting note is that I found this graphic online. I'm not sure how accurate it is, and it is close to ten years old, but it highlights some of what I've been talking about. Could it just be that areas in Tornado alley are better equiped to handle tornado outbreaks, and that along with higher awarness has led to less deadly events in the plains?

 

[CoastalWx]

Interesting note is that I found this graphic online. I'm not sure how accurate it is, and it is close to ten years old, but it highlights some of what I've been talking about. Could it just be that areas in Tornado alley are better equiped to handle tornado outbreaks, and that along with higher awarness has led to less deadly events in the plains?

 

 

Some of the Gulf Coast events have been nocturnal too which obviously increases mortality. There are so many things that go into your hypothesis, but over time...given decadal cycles and ENSO..things will shift around.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting note is that I found this graphic online. I'm not sure how accurate it is, and it is close to ten years old, but it highlights some of what I've been talking about. Could it just be that areas in Tornado alley are better equiped to handle tornado outbreaks, and that along with higher awarness has led to less deadly events in the plains?

 

 

 

Perhaps, sure --    "Killer" doesn't necessarily mean, more tornadoes, or stronger ones... doesn't mean that at all, actually.  It just means the incidence of deaths were higher in that location, which as you allude could very well be do to public awareness/preparedness and so forth. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I find a good tstm with close strobes exciting too...but even that is tough to come by...lol. It's akin to having my flags out when we have east winds in December while a storm approaches. I always have flags out for most setups. But, it's not like we live on Sable Island...we can get lit up good from time to time. I guess watching those reds in the Berks turn to anvil rains as it hit coastal mass turned me sour when I was a kid. 

 

 

I only recall one thunderstorm in my life that was truly continuous lightning.   This thing had overlapping sheet lightning with frequent multi-pulser CGs underneath.  Craziest thing I ever saw, and it was overrunning along a warm boundary in the southern GL, too. 

[weatherwiz]

I have several notebooks with tornado data broken down into La Nina/EL NIno and PDO, etc and maps...will have to dig them up and post data online and such.  Will have to do after my semester ends though.

[OceanStWx]

I find a good tstm with close strobes exciting too...but even that is tough to come by...lol. It's akin to having my flags out when we have east winds in December while a storm approaches. I always have flags out for most setups. But, it's not like we live on Sable Island...we can get lit up good from time to time. I guess watching those reds in the Berks turn to anvil rains as it hit coastal mass turned me sour when I was a kid. 

 

Not a fan of TSDZ?

[Typhoon Tip]

Top 10 day out there without a question.   Wow...  66F with that intense unadulterated sun, and pretty much no wind in fresh, dry air -- what more can be said.  

[IsentropicLift]

Perhaps, sure --    "Killer" doesn't necessarily mean, more tornadoes, or stronger ones... doesn't mean that at all, actually.  It just means the incidence of deaths were higher in that location, which as you allude could very well be do to public awareness/preparedness and so forth. 

Thanks

 

You can have days in the northeast where the SBCAPE is high, shear values are good, and lapse rates are good and yet storms can still struggle to reach severe limits. Especially lately we've had storms that looked great on radar, and that had awesome cloud formations, and yet they were dead on arrival. I live far enough west to avoid the ocean influince a majority of the time.

[OceanStWx]

Interesting note is that I found this graphic online. I'm not sure how accurate it is, and it is close to ten years old, but it highlights some of what I've been talking about. Could it just be that areas in Tornado alley are better equiped to handle tornado outbreaks, and that along with higher awarness has led to less deadly events in the plains?

 

You can almost re-title that concentration of mobile homes, it's nearly the same distribution. Most of what goes into killer tornadoes is strength, time of day, and shelter. While strength of tornadoes can be similar from tornado alley to Dixie alley, storm shelters are far more common in the Plains as well as nocturnal convection remaining rooted in the boundary layer more common in the South.

[IsentropicLift]

I only recall one thunderstorm in my life that was truly continuous lightning.   This thing had overlapping sheet lightning with frequent multi-pulser CGs underneath.  Craziest thing I ever saw, and it was overrunning along a warm boundary in the southern GL, too. 

I was down in south Jersey for the mid-atlantic derecheo last Summer. It had non-stop lightning for hours. Unlike anything else I've ever seen.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks

 

You can have days in the northeast where the SBCAPE is high, shear values are good, and lapse rates are good and yet storms can still struggle to reach severe limits. Especially lately we've had storms that looked great on radar, and that had awesome cloud formations, and yet they were dead on arrival. I live far enough west to avoid the ocean influince a majority of the time.

 

Well... there's a hidden factor there, too.  I have seen countless lines of severe storms magically evaporate when crossing a rough Nashua-Hartford line.   Sometimes it isn't really apparent in the surface -based CAPE why that would be, as temps and DP and so forth are vaguely differential parameters across that axis...  Still, that SSW wind that moved airs over the NY Bite waters and over the Long Island sound some how ..I dunno, call it micro dimmed instability on some discrete level.  It just seems that if there is a SSW wind it's an excuse to weaken storms at times.   interesting...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Toasty out there.  67F

[weatherMA]

56F and sunny. Beautiful out there. Should pass 60F.

[Damage In Tolland]

65 at HFD and BDL

[Baroclinic Zone]

Toasty out there.  67F

69F

[ORH_wxman]

I don't know if I agree with this anti-convection sentiment being rumbled on page 8 ... You have your druthers, sure -- that's your prerogative.  But, I can recall some epic thunderstorm events in Massachusetts that were every bit as comparable to those I experience in the Midwest growing up. 

 

Granted, they are not as frequent -- that's just statistically proven and an inarguable fact.  But, they do happen.   Druthers are not necessarily fact.  

 

The sentiment aspect sounds suspiciously like seasonal change/acceptance sour-grapes.   It's a pattern of posting behavior, and I see it repeating.  People should use this to reflect on their own psychologies in the matter, so they can see how they appear to others.  But when a few posters make an honest sentiment about liking summers for heat and thunderstorms, then there is a barrage of ensuing posts that attack those view point by saying dead-panned that it sucks for that in New England, period, it is suggestive of a lot of underpinning motivation.  

 

There have been EF4 tornadoes, and macro bursts (1998), and Derechos (1995) on plenty of occurrences, other times.   Just to clarify: an EF4 in Kansas is an EF4 here (hello).  I have seen golf ball sized hail here that's left permanent pocks in a friend's car -- oh, Golf ball hail is less destructive here than in OKC, I forgot.  We just had a massive forestry disaster near Monson Mass a couple clicks ago.    I can just go on and on and on....

 

The truth is, summers bore the winter heads that use the forum, regardless. So as a quasi resentment they cast and dire pal over the ensuing warm season and piss on the party for those that like summer.    

 

 

 

It seems you fail to actually read a lot of people's posts and just assume that because someone doesn't get excited about New England "severe weather" that it is sour grapes...the sour grapes "winter is over" card seems to get played over and over again.

 

Sure we get real severe weather...but way less frequently than out west and south. Usually we can see those types of rare events coming to our area in advance. Most of the other crap has the writing is on the wall by the time the event is near.  

 

 

Really, its not psychology or something more complex. Its as simple as convection in New England being pretty crappy that many do not get their hopes up for it. Obviously if you love to follow sub-severe storms, then that is a different story and we get plenty of those...so hats off to those who enjoy it. It doesn't mean the rest of us have to and it doesn't mean its "sour grapes" of the seasons changing.

 

I'm a big fan of hardcore convection. I just don't expect to find it up where I live.

[CoastalWx]

You have to understand, Tip gets a TCU in his khakis when K-Index gets over 30.

[weatherwiz]

You have to understand, Tip gets a TCU in his khakis when K-Index gets over 30.

 

[tamarack]

 

I only recall one thunderstorm in my life that was truly continuous lightning.   This thing had overlapping sheet lightning with frequent multi-pulser CGs underneath.  Craziest thing I ever saw, and it was overrunning along a warm boundary in the southern GL, too.

Same here, and it was while visiting family in central IL. The storm actually missed us by 5+ miles, passing to our south just after sunset. While we missed some excitement, we had a primo seat for an incredible light show - well over 100 strikes/minute, often 3-4 at the same time. Kind of like a sped-up time lapse of the storms I see where I now live. That IL storm was far enough away, and the strikes so abundant, that thunder was a low-frequency monotone for about half an hour. The fact that long-time residents were mighty impressed confirmed that it was a special event.

One reason I don't get too excited about severe: In 15 yr at my present location, I've had one severe TS, specifically about 30 seconds of wind +/-60 mph that turned +RA into twig-filled mist and toppled a number of large trees. We get svr watches 10-15 days a season, and svr warnings perhaps half that often, but my little area seems to have an anti-svr shield. A couple examples - getting missed north and south by a couple miles by two separate hailstorms in one hr, and being 6-8 miles NW of the 8/2007 tree-stripper (and debarker) hail event, still the only pixels of 70 dbz I've seen in Maine.

[powderfreak]

What a day... high of 53F so far and got a pretty decent sunburn from skiing earlier and then doing some shirtless yard work, lol. 

 

I can't believe how hot the sun is this time of year... I was sweating in the sun this morning with a t-shirt and shorts on just drinking coffee at like 40 degrees. 

 

Any day the sun is out these days is a top 10 day...doesn't matter what the temp is, the sun makes 45F and calm feel like 60+.

[Damage In Tolland]

Off to coach daughters softball practice. Last warm one for a couple weeks

[Typhoon Tip]

It seems you fail to actually read a lot of people's posts and just assume that because someone doesn't get excited about New England "severe weather" that it is sour grapes...the sour grapes "winter is over" card seems to get played over and over again.

 

Sure we get real severe weather...but way less frequently than out west and south. Usually we can see those types of rare events coming to our area in advance. Most of the other crap has the writing is on the wall by the time the event is near.  

 

 

Really, its not psychology or something more complex. Its as simple as convection in New England being pretty crappy that many do not get their hopes up for it. Obviously if you love to follow sub-severe storms, then that is a different story and we get plenty of those...so hats off to those who enjoy it. It doesn't mean the rest of us have to and it doesn't mean its "sour grapes" of the seasons changing.

 

I'm a big fan of hardcore convection. I just don't expect to find it up where I live.

 

 

Someone's guilty..   Look, you guys jumped up and down and started posting dead panned statements immediately on the heals of a couple of innocent jests about people looking  forward to heat and convection.   That wasn't me; AND IT DOES SOUND like it is motivated, because it was clearly triggered by the former posts.  Why.  

 

 - you get hard core convection up here.  Not sure why you guys are trying sell that crap.  There is more evidence to support that as fact, and you using it to "not expect" makes less sense to me when objectively considering the frequency.  

 

If you want to say it happens with less frequency than "tornado ally" fine, but a you guys are abusing it to justify poo-pooing summer.   You're just wrong, and the data proves it.  But again ... I don't think it is about that, really.  

[ORH_wxman]

 

Someone's guilty..   Look, you guys jumped up and down and started posting dead panned statements immediately on the heals of a couple of innocent jests about people looking  forward to heat and convection.   That wasn't me; AND IT DOES SOUND like it is motivated, because it was clearly triggered by the former posts.  Why.  

 

 - you get hard core convection up here.  Not sure why you guys are trying sell that crap.  There is more evidence to support that as fact, and you using it to "not expect" makes less sense to me when objectively considering the frequency.  

 

If you want to say it happens with less frequency than "tornado ally" fine, but a you guys are abusing it to justify poo-pooing summer.   You're just wrong, and the data proves it.

 

 

Show some actual data then rather than just telling me I'm wrong, because I won't take your word for it.

Derecho:

If you are a fan of high end severe weather, then we live in the wrong place. Our best chance for severe is tornado spin-ups where we can hold our own...but given how rare tornadoes are to begin with, pinning my hopes on that is pretty futile. Hail/straight line wind damage is much more common in general, and we don't do very well on that front climatologically speaking.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1) ORH County is New England's tornado alley

 

2) how do you read the derecho map?

 

Car thermo hit 72F in PVD today. Got to 63F here

[CoastalWx]

I love a good tstm as much as anyone, but it's like hoping for a KU in RDU. I don't know what there is to fight, unless subjectivity is clouding some judgements. I haven't seen true Plains style severe and even I know it's just not that great here in ern SNE aside from 40kt winds and peas. Of course we cen get lit up now and then, but overall if you love tstms..this area doesn't cut it.

 

It's just like snow in DC. Sure they get it and you appreciate your 2-4" snows that occur...but DC doesn't cut it.

[dendrite]

Give me something like a July 1978 and I'll be happy. Periods of cool weather sandwiched between torches.

[powderfreak]

I don't know if I agree with this anti-convection sentiment being rumbled on page 8 ... You have your druthers, sure -- that's your prerogative. But, I can recall some epic thunderstorm events in Massachusetts that were every bit as comparable to those I experience in the Midwest growing up.

Granted, they are not as frequent -- that's just statistically proven and an inarguable fact. But, they do happen. Druthers are not necessarily fact.

The sentiment aspect sounds suspiciously like seasonal change/acceptance sour-grapes. It's a pattern of posting behavior, and I see it repeating. People should use this to reflect on their own psychologies in the matter, so they can see how they appear to others. But when a few posters make an honest sentiment about liking summers for heat and thunderstorms, then there is a barrage of ensuing posts that attack those view point by saying dead-panned that it sucks for that in New England, period, it is suggestive of a lot of underpinning motivation.

There have been EF4 tornadoes, and macro bursts (1998), and Derechos (1995) on plenty of occurrences, other times. Just to clarify: an EF4 in Kansas is an EF4 here (hello). I have seen golf ball sized hail here that's left permanent pocks in a friend's car -- oh, Golf ball hail is less destructive here than in OKC, I forgot. We just had a massive forestry disaster near Monson Mass a couple clicks ago. I can just go on and on and on....

The truth is, summers bore the winter heads that use the forum, regardless. So as a quasi resentment they cast and dire pal over the ensuing warm season and piss on the party for those that like summer.

LOL. Getting all wound up over that stuff.

All ORH said was that its boring compared to the Plains. That's true. It is a fact we do not have as exciting severe weather as our there. Sure there are occasional events in history, but Tip threw out 1953 as an example...if you are hanging your hat on something that happened 60 years ago as proof of exciting SVR to rival the plains, well, that's like saying Birmingham, AL sees winter storms like New England because March 1993 gave them a foot of wind-driven snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

 

Show some actual data then rather than just telling me I'm wrong, because I won't take your word for it.

Derecho:

If you are a fan of high end severe weather, then we live in the wrong place. Our best chance for severe is tornado spin-ups where we can hold our own...but given how rare tornadoes are to begin with, pinning my hopes on that is pretty futile. Hail/straight line wind damage is much more common in general, and we don't do very well on that front climatologically speaking.

 

 

You make my point for me - thx!   

 

Like I said, the frequency is less but you get high end severe weather around here - YES WE DO.  In fact, your own product, ORH county has frequency on par with 80% the counties in Tornado alley.   

 

Again,  that's not even the point -- the point is being disenchanted by summer, and therefore, bombasting whenever someone post about liking it.  You're redirecting the conversation to avoid that truth. 

 

Fact of the matter is, we have enough convection around here that is severe enough to look forward to that aspect of summer.  We have had EF4 tornadoes at that, and baseball sized hail, too.  It's not a total loss, not even close.

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL. Getting all wound up over that stuff.

All ORH said was that its boring compared to the Plains. That's true. It is a fact we do not have as exciting severe weather as our there. Sure there are occasional events in history, but Tip threw out 1953 as an example...if you are hanging your hat on something that happened 60 years ago as proof of exciting SVR to rival the plains, well, that's like saying Birmingham, AL sees winter storms like New England because March 1993 gave them a foot of wind-driven snow.

 

 

Firstly, no one is "wound up"  -- can that jazz.

 

Secondly, he said a lot more than just that.  

 

Not going any further with this dopey discussion, though. 

[CoastalWx]

You make my point for me - thx!   

 

Like I said, the frequency is less but you get high end severe weather around here - YES WE DO.  In fact, your own product, ORH county has frequency on par with 80% the counties in Tornado alley.   

 

Again,  that's not even the point -- the point is being disenchanted by summer, and therefore, bombasting whenever someone post about liking it.  You're redirecting the conversation to avoid that truth. 

 

Fact of the matter is, we have enough convection around here that is severe enough to look forward to that aspect of summer.  We have had EF4 tornadoes at that, and baseball sized hail, too.  It's not a total loss, not even close.

 

But those frequencies are so rare...we go without entire summers without reports of baseballs. 40kt winds and nickels are mostly the extent.

 

Again, unless you enjoy watching minimal criteria severe than great...but the point is convection just isn't that grand whatsoever. They'll always be a 2008 coming around or a random EML...but in general...meh.