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Disco for Sat 03/16 snow event and Sunday night 03/17 event


Damage In Tolland

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I went for a walk with my son today and it did feel great. But, I know what's around the corner and I'll appreciate every sloppy inch I can get until mid April. If I did not see one flake again this year, I won't complain. I can't believe the turnaround I had. What a boost for my soul. Sorry Tip, snow does make me happier.

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I went for a walk with my son today and it did feel great. But, I know what's around the corner and I'll appreciate every sloppy inch I can get until mid April. If I did not see one flake again this year, I won't complain. I can't believe the turnaround I had. What a boost for my soul. Sorry Tip, snow does make me happier.

 

The only sloppy inches I want to worry about for the rest of the year involve tricky downhill slider putts after a few Shipyards.

 

However, both the GEFS and Euro ensembles show a fresh supply of anomalously cold mid level air dumped into New England prior to that first half of the week system. Pretty bullish bringing the warmth back north ahead of the cutter, but we know how that tends to go in a SWFE.

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The only sloppy inches I want to worry about for the rest of the year involve tricky downhill slider putts after a few Shipyards.

However, both the GEFS and Euro ensembles show a fresh supply of anomalously cold mid level air dumped into New England prior to that first half of the week system. Pretty bullish bringing the warmth back north ahead of the cutter, but we know how that tends to go in a SWFE.

I have a hard time thinking that's a cutter. SWFE at least.

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The only sloppy inches I want to worry about for the rest of the year involve tricky downhill slider putts after a few Shipyards.

 

However, both the GEFS and Euro ensembles show a fresh supply of anomalously cold mid level air dumped into New England prior to that first half of the week system. Pretty bullish bringing the warmth back north ahead of the cutter, but we know how that tends to go in a SWFE.

 

You mean like the one that looks like its top edge that you just barely touch off that misses and ends up 4' past the hole and you miss it coming back and 3 jerk the hole, That one?

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GYX

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... THEPRIMARY LONGER-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHILETHERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGHFRIDAY NIGHT THE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK. GENERAL TREND WILL BESUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THENORTHWEST. ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES BY SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT ALL OFTHE BEST FORCING STAYS UP IN CANADA. BEHIND THE TROUGH SOME COLDERAIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS COLD AIR IS NOT AS INTENSEAS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED... AS THE GFS HAS COME MORE INLINE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURESTO BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

 

BOX

 

*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF ARCTIC HIGHPRESSURE IMPACTING THE BEST REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS/BAROCLINICITY.WITH THE 14.0Z NAM THE SLOWEST OF SOLUTIONS...WILL PREVAIL WITH ABLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF. WEAK WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROADERPOLAR VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL INVOKE A WEAK LOW SOUTH OFNEW ENGLAND OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA COASTLINE. THOUGH SENSIBLEWEATHER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AM CONFIDENT TO BELIEVE THIS WILLBE A VERY LIGHT PRECIP EVENT /CONTINUED POOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ANDLACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE/. CONSIDERING A DAYTIME PASSAGE SATURDAYAND LACK OF ARCTIC AIR...COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING...FEEL THIS IS ANUISANCE WET SNOW SHOWER EVENT /RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONSNEAR THE COASTLINE/. SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT VERY LIGHT ANDWELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST ACCUMS WILL BE ALONG WESTERNSLOPES OF BERKSHIRES/WORCESTER HILLS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZEDALLOWING FOR BEST LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP COULDBECOME COMPLICATED WITH PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLEDOWNWARD SLOPING COMPONENT OF FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THEREGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT W/NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALCLEARING. MAY NOT BE AS COLD OVERNIGHT AS THOUGHT WITH LAST NIGHT/SFORECAST.

 

OKX

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW...ORIENTED NW TO SE AT THE START OF THEPERIOD...WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL IMPACT THEAREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS A COLDFRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOWPRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SAT.THIS IS THE WEAKER OF THE TWO SYSTEM WHICH WILL FEATURE A LIGHTRAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...CHANGING TOALL RAIN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEMWITH QPF AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE NO HIGHER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET ALONG THEUS/CAN BORDER WILL SEND A STRENGTHENING HIGH EAST FROM THE UPPERMIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE NEEARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITHTHE HIGH AT ABOUT 1035 MB. THE COLDER ECMWF SUPPORTS A LONGER PERIODOF FROZEN PCPN. HOWEVER...WHILE 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE COLDER....BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITH AN E FLOW MON AFT BECOMING SE BY EVENINGWILL LIKELY KEEP THIS A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT THE COAST...WHILEINLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONSBEFORE CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THEFORECAST AT THIS TIME TO WORK OUT THESE SPECIFIC DETAILS. RIGHT NOWTHOUGH...IT APPEARS TO BE AN EVENT THAT WOULD NOT MEET WARNINGCRITERIA.THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THISSTORM SYSTEM AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF...MORE SO THE ECWMF.
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Any hope on any of the 12z guidance?

GFS .1-.25" (I'm the border of the .25) for overunning, NAM a miss.

 

GGEM was 8-9 hours of moderate(1-3" mm of liquid as snow per hour, hard to tell the exact QPF) snow monday, than 2-3 hours of ice, than rain(guessing by the time the rain comes the miller B/cutter has taken over), assuming the low end of the GGEM, it's around .35" liquid, on the high end, .7" liquid. I think it's closer to the low end, but even that's a 2-4" event. Also keep in mind that the precip type maps often run a tad warm, so if it's showing rain, it might be ice for another hour or so, and ditto ice/snow.

GGEM: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

-skisheep

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