Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III

[Allsnow]

Light to mod snow from belmar north at hr 39

[donsutherland1]

SREF mean has about 8 inches for NYC

With the soundings consistently working out warmer than what had been modeled on the NAM and, to a lesser extent GFS, my guess is that the SREF mean very likely will not verify for NYC unless the 15z SREF and 18z/0z guidance does better in that area.

[Allsnow]

Hr 42 light to mod snow continues. It warms and moves out at hr 45. Looks a lot like 12z euro

[jm1220]

Radar does now look to be consolidating somewhat south of Long Island (knock on wood). Hopefully this is what will push north and salvage something with the front end precip.

[SnoSki14]

Hr 42 light to mod snow continues. It warms and moves out at hr 45. Looks a lot like 12z euro

And that's what we're banking on? Good luck with that. Euro has been very good so far so i would go with it.

[Allsnow]

Gfs is 2-4 from sandy hook north. 4-8 just north of NYC into Hudson valley

[PB GFI]

With the soundings consistently working out warmer than what had been modeled on the NAM and, to a lesser extent GFS, my guess is that the SREF mean very likely will not verify for NYC unless the 15z SREF and 18z/0z guidance does better in that area.

 

Don , have you ever seen a Norlun to the magnitude that the NAM  shows , area wide verify in New England . The NAM pretty much shreds most of NY STATE , CT an SNE on into CNJ .

 

I was always under the impression they are intense but localized .

[jm1220]

0.25-0.5" for the initial CCB related precip on the GFS from roughly I-95 east. Less NW.

[SRRTA22]

I actually believe we wouldn't want any front end precip, as it would be rain, and make it harder for the snow to stick later on, or no?

[Kaner587]

Again the rgem is probably the most realistic 3-6 somewhere in the middle

[sferic]

Is it my imagination or on the radar does the center of circulation off the VA/NC coast sem to be sinking southward?

[sferic]

I actually believe we wouldn't want any front end precip, as it would be rain, and make it harder for the snow to stick later on, or no?

 

 

Heavier snow falling can easily whiten up even the most wet pavements and streets

[donsutherland1]

Don , have you ever seen a Norlun to the magnitude that the NAM  shows , area wide verify in New England . The NAM pretty much shreds most of NY STATE , CT an SNE on into CNJ .

 

I was always under the impression they are intense but localized .

It appears suspiciously large on the NAM. That's been the case for the last two runs. The 0z guidance and early guidance tomorrow will be interesting. By then, the model should be getting a better handle on the situation. It would be nice to salvage something ahead of what looks to be a mild weekend.

[ag3]

18z Rgem total snow for tomorrow night:

 

[phlwx]

Didn't the RGEM say it was going to be snowing tonight across NJ and NYC in last night's runs?

[sferic]

What is the range of  liquid QPF from the model's least to maximum for JFK from now until storm's end?

[SR Airglow]

What is the range of  liquid QPF from the model's least to maximum for JFK from now until storm's end?

GFS is the driest at roughly .6" or so, NAM gets over 2", EURO is probably around .85", RGEM the same, GGEM more, SREF's 1"+, assorted meso's all 1"+

-skisheep

[West Point, NY]

Is it my imagination or on the radar does the center of circulation off the VA/NC coast sem to be sinking southward?

You are correct. That is why the precip has not been making any northward progress this afternoon as the center has moved south of due east off the coast.

[WintersGrasp]

Lonnie Quinn said for Long Island just now 3-6 inches overnight tonight and 2-5 tomorrow night which gives a range of 5 to 11 inches for Long Island, plausible?

I think upton's general 3-6 is much more sensible

[user13]

heavy rain for everyone you mean?

 Well it moved 300 miles SE in one run so something to keep me interested

- Setup looks pretty decent

[Snow_Miser]

We should know in a few hours if the sim radar depiction by the NAM is anything close to what will actually happen. Radar returns look decent off the coast. The question is whether those returns can make it to the coast like the NAM sim radar insists it would.

[whatever]

I'm even doubting light to moderate precip will even build back tonight over most of NJ.  

 

If it doesn't, then Euro wins again.

[bluewave]

The high pressure and dry air to the north looks like it's a little  stronger than what the 18z 4km had

for this hour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

The other concern is that temps aren't even starting to budge yet. Still in the 39 to 42 range mostly. Some places in central jersey have climbed a few degrees in the past hour

[Snow_Miser]

The high pressure and dry air to the north looks like it's a little stronger than what the 18z 4km had

for this hour.

rad5.gif

northeast.gif

Thanks for that comparison bluewave. Precip is definitely slightly south of where the NAM had it. Wouldn't be surprised if precip just barely missed NYC with the coastal system.

[nyblizz44]

its never over till its over but its rather dark humor that the thread is entiteled OCEAN storm....for the fish indeed,

[nyblizz44]

The other concern is that temps aren't even starting to budge yet. Still in the 39 to 42 range mostly. Some places in central jersey have climbed a few degrees in the past hour

Perhaps a bigger concern is that a Norlun is 4 cast based on a more northern projection of the SLP. well, Id LOVE to know how now withat SLP clearly diving south and east how that Norlun will materialize up here. In short, if you change the numerical equation radically, as here, how exactly do we, rationally, expect the previous result?

[Superstorm93]

Rain building in

 

[SR Airglow]

Not sure what the major concern is, it seems on track for a general 1-3" outside the heat island tonight, which is what the models have been calling for. Even the GFS had probably around .35" tonight, very similar to the EURO. These bands off LI are supposed to move north a bit, and while it may be a bit south of modeled, it's not so huge that it should be a problem. Upton went 1-3" tonight area wide at 430, and no new data has come in since then to make me worry that that's not on track. some precip starting to make it into NYC, radar looks OK.

-skisheep

[winterwx21]

Not sure what the major concern is, it seems on track for a general 1-3" outside the heat island tonight, which is what the models have been calling for. Even the GFS had probably around .35" tonight, very similar to the EURO. These bands off LI are supposed to move north a bit, and while it may be a bit south of modeled, it's not so huge that it should be a problem. Upton went 1-3" tonight area wide at 430, and no new data has come in since then to make me worry that that's not on track. some precip starting to make it into NYC, radar looks OK.

-skisheep

 

 

But temps are very warm. It will be very difficult for any snow to stick.