paxpatriot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am fascinated to know what went so wrong with this storm for so many people. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can't remember a storm where right up to the first snowflakes just about all of the models were wrong. If someone who knows their stuff could offer some insights, it would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 saturn is kaput: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am fascinated to know what went so wrong with this storm for so many people. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can't remember a storm where right up to the first snowflakes just about all of the models were wrong. If someone who knows their stuff could offer some insights, it would be appreciated. too much warm air pulled into the system with the easterly flow compared to what the models were showing... the only cold air around the system right now is to the southwest of the center... we just couldnt get heavy enough snowfall rates to keep the air near the surface cool enough to accumulate... it remaining light allowed the surface to warm during the day so we had the changeover to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 000 FXUS61 KCTP 061816 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 116 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY THIS EVENING AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A VERY SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATIONS. &&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...18Z UPDATE...THE BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN HAVE AS PREDICTED SLID TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BECOME MORE NNE TO SSW IN ORIENTATION. DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION RATES LOTS OF SNOW AND RAIN MIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM DUE TO A) THE LACK OF MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE ARE STILL BANDS ON RADAR AND LACK OF ECHOES AND DRYING OUT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WAS REACHED EARLIER TO DAY.MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. BUT MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNAWILL DEAL WITH SNOW AND SNOW AND RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. SOME VIDEO EVIDENCE IN YORK COUNTY OF AREAS OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. BUT MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...ENJOY THE STRATO CUMULUS AND DRY ROADS. Whats up with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Whats up with this? They need to update their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 "We were off by 50 miles. That was enough to make us look like we have egg on our face." - Paul Head, meteorologist, National Weather Service http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/march_2013_snowstorm_predictin.html#incart_m-rpt-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It has been snowing almost all day here and some heavy bands rolled through. If this was not March with the sun angle packing the new snow, this would have been every bit as advertised. The major bust here was the wind direction and temps in the urban areas. We had snow here and a lot of it, but it never amounted to much due to compaction and the urban areas near the water missed out. When I woke up we had 4 inches, later it snowed heavy at times and all day probably another 7 fell but it simply could not accumulate well and kept packing itself. Out of about a foot of snow that fell I have about 5 inches of the heaviest snow you will find on the ground that continues to pack. Still a fun day, interesting storm, and a free day off to complain about it! http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157632928428745/show/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 While driving over the route 30 bridge over the river earlier i had to avoid the temptation to pull over and jump. Got an inch and a half on the hill before the dryslot and change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/march_2013_snowstorm_predictin.html#incart_m-rpt-2 It's not that simple. This was a complete BUST. Forget about 50 miles. The only place this produced was in central and northern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wonder what the NAVGEM says about tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's not that simple. This was a complete BUST. Forget about 50 miles. The only place this produced was in central and northern Virginia. which is exactly where it was SUPPOSED to produce. This wasn't "our" storm and was never forecast to be. Not all mets went with the big totals people keep touting. MU stuck with 3-6 at most for lancaster, noting that northern parts could see significantly less. That's a pretty good forecast, for a terribly unpredictable storm, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wonder what the NAVGEM says about tonight! NAVGEM can't touch the JMA. BRING IT ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am fascinated to know what went so wrong with this storm for so many people. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can't remember a storm where right up to the first snowflakes just about all of the models were wrong. If someone who knows their stuff could offer some insights, it would be appreciated. Oh, man, March 2001 was much worse than this. Much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Oh, man, March 2001 was much worse than this. Much. That was years before I moved here; what happen (or didn't happen I guess) in March 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It could have been worse, we could have been in the modeled bullseye like DC. All models pretty much sucked on this one even the conservative Euro and gfs were overdone. There should be some good post storm model analysis on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is being such a total dick with that Thursday night stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That was years before I moved here; what happen (or didn't happen I guess) in March 2001? Oh, just a forecast for like 2 feet and incredible winds and very little happened. A Philly TV met was run off the air by death threats, a restaurant owner tried to sue the NWS, and the level of freakout on the old NE weather listserv and WWBB was profound. Mt Holly even used the words "historic blizzard." It did hit New England. But this compared to that fiasco? This was striking out with the bases loaded in an August game down 4-3 to end the game. March 2001 was the ball rolling between Buckner's legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is being such a total dick with that Thursday night stuff. Lol. It knows how easy it is to troll NYC weenies so it can't help but do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Never forget JB's post headline on his old AccuWx column hours before the March mess: NEW MODELS NOT ONLY KNOCK BALL OUT OF PARK BUT SEND IT INTO ORBIT THIS MAY BEAT 1993 FOLKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol. It knows how easy it is to troll NYC weenies so it can't help but do it. Goes after PHL too but you guys who missed out can take spiteful glee in how it torches New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is being such a total dick with that Thursday night stuff. I'll say! Just looked at it....stupid NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, certainly a fitting end game to what has been an absolute nightmare of a storm to forecast. I def did not anticipate p-type problems in our region, though I mentioned a few days ago I thought potentially the highly anomalous easterly flow could end up hurting DC's snow totals some. I still thought they'd have a half decent storm though. The precip ended up in the end getting squashed down in eastern PA like some models had been hinting at a couple days ago. I'm def not going to heap praise on any model though. However, it did seem like the GGEM simulated ptype radar ended up having a pretty good handle on precip issues into PA leading up to this storm. I should've taken into account the strong easterly fetch and lack of antecedent cold air alot more in the east especially considering time of the year. So pretty much my map is going to bust in alot of ways. Too high in the east, too LOW in the west, I was a bit too far north with my 1 inch line, etc. The highest totals i've seen in PA ended up in and north of Pittsburgh. I had Butler County in mostly 1-3 and the southwest part of the county in 3-6 and someone ended up with 12". Seemed like there was a stripe of 8-12" that ended up occurring. I tried to account for that possibility in my map but it ended up being too far south for what ended up happening. The only double digit amount I've seen so far in the central counties ended up being 10" in the other end of my county (Blair). Altoona ended up with over 7" inches and 7 miles up the road here I ended up with about 3". Just a frustrating storm to forecast, good riddance haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Guys lets face it...Saturn was a talented troll. Not as talented as Nam, but talented nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Oh, just a forecast for like 2 feet and incredible winds and very little happened. A Philly TV met was run off the air by death threats, a restaurant owner tried to sue the NWS, and the level of freakout on the old NE weather listserv and WWBB was profound. Mt Holly even used the words "historic blizzard." It did hit New England. But this compared to that fiasco? This was striking out with the bases loaded in an August game down 4-3 to end the game. March 2001 was the ball rolling between Buckner's legs. As a huge baseball fan, I found this hilarious. Great, great analogy. By the way...not sure if you saw HM's comment early today in the Philly about the 3/17-3/20 time period...you're gonna get rocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Never forget JB's post headline on his old AccuWx column hours before the March mess: NEW MODELS NOT ONLY KNOCK BALL OUT OF PARK BUT SEND IT INTO ORBIT THIS MAY BEAT 1993 FOLKS Haha the Peggy Lee "Is that all there is?" storm. I think you still would take that one over this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Heck yea, we still had 9 or so in 2001 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If 2001 repeated today I think about 90% of the NYC/MA subforums would be 5-posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think disappointment is higher this year for those places that didn't get any snow due to the fact that our snow output has been so low for the last couple of years, especially in Lancaster. 2009-2010 set the bar high for sure. So always hoping for that last big bang and not getting it is sort of a let down. But hey we go on to the next storm, which by the way is when?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My liquid equiv was 0.44". I was in the 1"+ range on models so areas to my north didn't stand a chance. I muscled out an ok season with 24.0" ytd. Can't really complain considering last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not sure what happened that got area in SW PA 10-12 inches but not a single model showed that happening especially that far North. I definitely think timing was huge, all of the snow fell overnight. It was an amazing scene around 6am this morning with snow ripping and everything pasted. To make everyone who didn't get much feel better, by 1pm today we had temps in the low 40s with sun. Compaction combined with melting shrunk the snow pack by half if not more. Now I'd say I only have 1/4 of what I measured this morning. It's like that saying about the chess pieces, at the end of the game they all go back in the same box, by Sunday this week we will all have bare ground again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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