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Central PA - March 2013


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I am fascinated to know what went so wrong with this storm for so many people. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can't remember a storm where right up to the first snowflakes just about all of the models were wrong. If someone who knows their stuff could offer some insights, it would be appreciated.

too much warm air pulled into the system with the easterly flow compared to what the models were showing... the only cold air around the system right now is to the southwest of the center... we just couldnt get heavy enough snowfall rates to keep the air near the surface cool enough to accumulate... it remaining light allowed the surface to warm during the day so we had the changeover to rain

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000

FXUS61 KCTP 061816

AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

116 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION

WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY THIS

EVENING AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE

TO HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A VERY SHARP

NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...THE BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN HAVE AS PREDICTED SLID TO

THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BECOME MORE NNE TO SSW IN ORIENTATION. DUE

TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION RATES

LOTS OF SNOW AND RAIN MIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM DUE TO A)

THE LACK OF MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE

ARE STILL BANDS ON RADAR AND B) LACK OF ECHOES AND DRYING OUT IN

THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WAS REACHED

EARLIER TO DAY.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. BUT MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA

WILL DEAL WITH SNOW AND SNOW AND RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. SOME

VIDEO EVIDENCE IN YORK COUNTY OF AREAS OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. BUT

MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GET COLD ENOUGH

TO ACCUMULATE.

IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...ENJOY THE STRATO CUMULUS AND DRY ROADS.

 

 

Whats up with this?

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It has been snowing almost all day here and some heavy bands rolled through. If this was not March with the sun angle packing the new snow, this would have been every bit as advertised. The major bust here was the wind direction and temps in the urban areas. We had snow here and a lot of it, but it never amounted to much due to compaction and the urban areas near the water missed out. When I woke up we had 4 inches, later it snowed heavy at times and all day probably another 7 fell but it simply could not accumulate well and kept packing itself. Out of about a foot of snow that fell I have about 5 inches of the heaviest snow you will find on the ground that continues to pack. Still a fun day, interesting storm, and a free day off to complain about it!

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157632928428745/show/

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It's not that simple.  This was a complete BUST.  Forget about 50 miles.  The only place this produced was in central and northern Virginia.

 

which is exactly where it was SUPPOSED to produce. This wasn't "our" storm and was never forecast to be. Not all mets went with the big totals people keep touting. MU stuck with 3-6 at most for lancaster, noting that northern parts could see significantly less. That's a pretty good forecast, for a terribly unpredictable storm, IMO.

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I am fascinated to know what went so wrong with this storm for so many people. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can't remember a storm where right up to the first snowflakes just about all of the models were wrong. If someone who knows their stuff could offer some insights, it would be appreciated.

Oh, man, March 2001 was much worse than this. Much. 

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That was years before I moved here; what happen (or didn't happen I guess) in March 2001?

Oh, just a forecast for like 2 feet and incredible winds and very little happened. A Philly TV met was run off the air by death threats, a restaurant owner tried to sue the NWS, and the level of freakout on the old NE weather listserv and WWBB was profound. Mt Holly even used the words "historic blizzard." It did hit New England. 

 

But this compared to that fiasco? This was striking out with the bases loaded in an August game down 4-3 to end the game. March 2001 was the ball rolling between Buckner's legs. 

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Wow, certainly a fitting end game to what has been an absolute nightmare of a storm to forecast. I def did not anticipate p-type problems in our region, though I mentioned a few days ago I thought potentially the highly anomalous easterly flow could end up hurting DC's snow totals some. I still thought they'd have a half decent storm though. The precip ended up in the end getting squashed down in eastern PA like some models had been hinting at a couple days ago. I'm def not going to heap praise on any model though. However, it did seem like the GGEM simulated ptype radar ended up having a pretty good handle on precip issues into PA leading up to this storm. I should've taken into account the strong easterly fetch and lack of antecedent cold air alot more in the east especially considering time of the year.

So pretty much my map is going to bust in alot of ways. Too high in the east, too LOW in the west, I was a bit too far north with my 1 inch line, etc. The highest totals i've seen in PA ended up in and north of Pittsburgh. I had Butler County in mostly 1-3 and the southwest part of the county in 3-6 and someone ended up with 12". Seemed like there was a stripe of 8-12" that ended up occurring. I tried to account for that possibility in my map but it ended up being too far south for what ended up happening. The only double digit amount I've seen so far in the central counties ended up being 10" in the other end of my county (Blair). Altoona ended up with over 7" inches and 7 miles up the road here I ended up with about 3". Just a frustrating storm to forecast, good riddance haha.

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Oh, just a forecast for like 2 feet and incredible winds and very little happened. A Philly TV met was run off the air by death threats, a restaurant owner tried to sue the NWS, and the level of freakout on the old NE weather listserv and WWBB was profound. Mt Holly even used the words "historic blizzard." It did hit New England. 

 

But this compared to that fiasco? This was striking out with the bases loaded in an August game down 4-3 to end the game. March 2001 was the ball rolling between Buckner's legs. 

 

As a huge baseball fan, I found this hilarious. Great, great analogy.

 

By the way...not sure if you saw HM's comment early today in the Philly about the 3/17-3/20 time period...you're gonna get rocked!

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Never forget JB's post headline on his old AccuWx column hours before the March mess:

 

NEW MODELS NOT ONLY KNOCK BALL OUT OF PARK BUT SEND IT INTO ORBIT THIS MAY BEAT 1993 FOLKS

 

Haha the Peggy Lee "Is that all there is?" storm.

 

I think you still would take that one over this one.

 

post-1507-0-99888900-1362607811_thumb.jp

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I think disappointment is higher this year for those places that didn't get any snow due to the fact that our snow output has been so low for the last couple of years, especially in Lancaster. 2009-2010 set the bar high for sure. So always hoping for that last big bang and not getting it is sort of a let down. But hey we go on to the next storm, which by the way is when??????

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I'm not sure what happened that got area in SW PA 10-12 inches but not a single model showed that happening especially that far North. I definitely think timing was huge, all of the snow fell overnight. It was an amazing scene around 6am this morning with snow ripping and everything pasted.

 

To make everyone who didn't get much feel better, by 1pm today we had temps in the low 40s with sun. Compaction combined with melting shrunk the snow pack by half if not more. Now I'd say I only have 1/4 of what I measured this morning. It's like that saying about the chess pieces, at the end of the game they all go back in the same box, by Sunday this week we will all have bare ground again.

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