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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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It sounds like he's trying really hard to convince himself and others that we are still going to see a rocking winter. He made a few good points and he always lays things out in such a way that instantly attracts weenies towards him.

He knows how to manipulate data to please his subscribers and I guarantee he will make up something that will justify his forecast if it turns out the opposite of what he expects.

But yet he fails to mention the fact that his call for "quite a storm from the plains to the east coast" on day 7 or 8 (which would be this weekend) that the models would have a hard time seeing is not going to happen.    You'll note he barely talks about snow in his posts of late and can really only focus on the arctic outbreaks...

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I would not worry about a day 7 threat. There may be 1 to 2 tomorrow during rush hour and an over running event on Monday that the euro and canadian bring accumulating snow to the area.

Day 7 storms are just too far off. See what you get with the next 2 events 1st.

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I would not worry about a day 7 threat. There may be 1 to 2 tomorrow during rush hour and an over running event on Monday that the euro and canadian bring accumulating snow to the area.

Day 7 storms are just too far off. See what you get with the next 2 events 1st.

Fair point.  BTW tell JB I like the smaller more frequent posts.... :snowing:

 

But those snowfall maps for a day 7-10 threat?  come on....

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Fair point.  BTW tell JB I like the smaller more frequent posts.... :snowing:

 

But those snowfall maps for a day 7-10 threat?  come on....

Yeh he's trying to post more. " if" there is anything news worthy .

1 problem , since Thanksgiving we have been watching from the sidelines

Maybe 1 to 2 tomorrow for you. Maybe 2 to 4 Monday.

After that I will guess along with everyone else.

Just to far to see .

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Yeh he's trying to post more. " if" there is anything news worthy .

1 problem , since Thanksgiving we have been watching from the sidelines

Maybe 1 to 2 tomorrow for you. Maybe 2 to 4 Monday.

After that I will guess along with everyone else.

Just to far to see .

And for coastal folks, we've been watching from the sidelines since last Feb. Thanksgiving was largely a rainstorm here.   2/20/14 was my last snowfall of an inch or more.   

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   saw this  coming   dec 20....  this  is  WHY  I gave   up on my winter forecast

 

 

  the  PV over   far North Canada  has  to

1)  come MUCH further  south  

2)  it cannot be   aligned west to east     (shaped like a  football)

I have NOT  given up on winter in feb / march

 

  BUT   euro   WEEKLIES  Move  the mjo    back into  neutral circle   .. ever reaching  phase  8 or 1  and then back into  5 and 6 in n  FEB .. which is  warm and dry and would kill the winter

-

I copied this from the pattern thread where you said you haven't given up on Feb/march yet....any chance we save 4-6 weeks there or are you saying we're done?

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  the  PV over   far North Canada  has  to

1)  come MUCH further  south  

2)  it cannot be   aligned west to east     (shaped like a  football)

I have NOT  given up on winter in feb / march

 

  BUT   euro   WEEKLIES  Move  the mjo    back into  neutral circle   .. ever reaching  phase  8 or 1  and then back into  5 and 6 in n  FEB .. which is  warm and dry and would kill the winter

-

I copied this from the pattern thread where you said you haven't given up on Feb/march yet....any chance we save 4-6 weeks there or are you saying we're done?

 

Lol, at first I thought you and DT switched keyboards.

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ugly times-JB only barking about chicago being cold (who cares), his weekend storm from a week ago-remember the one that the models would have a hard time seeing that would result in quite the storm from the midwest to the east coast-has resulted in blue skies and cold temps, monday's event is all rain and end of week event is gone with no discussion at all....what a winter!

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ugly times-JB only barking about chicago being cold (who cares), his weekend storm from a week ago-remember the one that the models would have a hard time seeing that would result in quite the storm from the midwest to the east coast-has resulted in blue skies and cold temps, monday's event is all rain and end of week event is gone with no discussion at all....what a winter!

 

 

I guess he's been extremely consistent -- as in calling for a white Christmas (not), calling for a white New Year (not), calling for a severe winter (not), always saying only he sees things and the models don't (as in busts), and yet somehow having the gall to say that if only the period he was forecasting for had been 6 weeks earlier or 6 weeks later he would have been spot-on. Hey, what's a mere 12 weeks when you're forecasting?  What a clown.

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so JB admitted he crashed and burned wrt the non-existent coastal this week.  He said he's been getting pummeled by readers.. :weep:

 

Watching him the last few days, he was adamant that the models were mishandling the trough depth, placement etc. and the storm would not harmlessly shear out to sea.   That was 3 days ago.  He failed miserably.  Now he expects us to have faith in his forecast for trough/ridge placement which will bring in colder air, (according to him at the end of January, 2 weeks away).  

 

If you're betting on a guy to shoot a target and he misses at 10', would you put more money on him to hit at 100'??

 

I'm on the DT train....I think the cold does come back but well into February, by then we are dealing with the last gasps of winter and transient cold/mild shots to take us to the end of a miserable winter. Nothing to lose.  If the DT train derails at least I end up in a snow bank.  

 

P.S. I am sitting in the epicenter of JB's 167% snowfall zone.  I have under 10" to date.  Of course, we'll end up with a 2' cement blizzard in April and JB will take a victory lap :lol:

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so JB admitted he crashed and burned wrt the non-existent coastal this week.  He said he's been getting pummeled by readers.. :weep:

 

Watching him the last few days, he was adamant that the models were mishandling the trough depth, placement etc. and the storm would not harmlessly shear out to sea.   That was 3 days ago.  He failed miserably.  Now he expects us to have faith in his forecast for trough/ridge placement which will bring in colder air, (according to him at the end of January, 2 weeks away).  

 

If you're betting on a guy to shoot a target and he misses at 10', would you put more money on him to hit at 100'??

 

I'm on the DT train....I think the cold does come back but well into February, by then we are dealing with the last gasps of winter and transient cold/mild shots to take us to the end of a miserable winter. Nothing to lose.  If the DT train derails at least I end up in a snow bank.  

 

P.S. I am sitting in the epicenter of JB's 167% snowfall zone.  I have under 10" to date.  Of course, we'll end up with a 2' cement blizzard in April and JB will take a victory lap :lol:

yeah, he has yet to address why his snowfall forecast has been so bad...100% would be a stretch and we're going to need something like 10-11 to save it.   I'm in his 133% and I have 5 inches YTD and met winter is 50% done.  LOL

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so JB admitted he crashed and burned wrt the non-existent coastal this week.  He said he's been getting pummeled by readers.. :weep:

 

Watching him the last few days, he was adamant that the models were mishandling the trough depth, placement etc. and the storm would not harmlessly shear out to sea.   That was 3 days ago.  He failed miserably.  Now he expects us to have faith in his forecast for trough/ridge placement which will bring in colder air, (according to him at the end of January, 2 weeks away).  

 

If you're betting on a guy to shoot a target and he misses at 10', would you put more money on him to hit at 100'??

 

I'm on the DT train....I think the cold does come back but well into February, by then we are dealing with the last gasps of winter and transient cold/mild shots to take us to the end of a miserable winter. Nothing to lose.  If the DT train derails at least I end up in a snow bank.  

 

P.S. I am sitting in the epicenter of JB's 167% snowfall zone.  I have under 10" to date.  Of course, we'll end up with a 2' cement blizzard in April and JB will take a victory lap :lol:

JB is infuriating.  He has the skills and knowledge to be great but he is stubborn to a fault and chooses to spin and hype.  There is no sin in missing a long range forecast.  The problem with long range forecasting is you are making a prediction based on a prediction.  You first have to predict SST's, Solar Activity, and other long range pattern factors to predict how they will influence the EPO/PNA/AO/NAO.  If any of your initial predictions are off the rest are off.  Its difficult at best.  WHat is a sin is being tied to a forecast and unwilling to adapt or change given new information.  He is infuriating because he has knowledge and it would be great if right now he would discuss what is actually going on and give real insight, but instead he would rather talk about a pretend world where everything is going according to plan.  Makes him less then useless right now.  Of course he wont talk about snow because nothing about his snow forecast is even remotely redemable right now.  At least with temps he can spin it enought to make it look close.  But even with temperatures it is not happening the way he predicted.  The results are irrelavent.  If you read his seasonal outlook things are not going according to plan.  About the only thing he nailed was the EPO.  but with ONLY the EPO in our favor it will dump cold into the CONUS yea but the combo of a bad PNA/AO/NAO will ensure a craptastic storm track.  Everything that amps will cut, everything else will shear out. I think two things may have really killed out winter so far.  The Nino totally crapped out.  On top of that we got a solar max combined with an extremely negative QBO.  My understanding of those factors is novice at best but there is evidence that those two when combined are bad news for snow. I hold out some hope with shortening wavelengths and perhaps the influences of the solar max we got in Dec waning perhaps we salvage a better pattern in Feb but even so his forecast busted.   

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I agree with the frustration but we still have 2.5 months where it can snow. He emphasizes first to last flake not just January/February. So if his call for NYC is 40" it can still happen or come close with an above normal feb/march. I don't see the point in throwing in the towel less than half way through January.

1981-82 was saved by an April Blizzard...1956 by two last minute snowstorms...since 1950 15 other winters had less snow than this one up to this date...

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No real snow till about Jan. 26 it seems.  The colder model runs have little precipitation  to offer up as snow and the wetter runs have the higher temperatures.   Looks like a trend to expect when considering the ENSO state, MJO phase, a PV which is healing itself back together and teleconnections that stink.  We need an accident as in 'even a blind squirrel with a stuffy nose can find the nut sometimes'.

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1981-82 was saved by an April Blizzard...1956 by two last minute snowstorms...since 1950 15 other winters had less snow than this one up to this date...

 

 

That's almost 25% of winters since 1950 ... pretty amazing, I never would have guessed one in four had less snow than this one up to this point.

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