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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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Nice little event here. Haven't been out to measure yet but looks to be about 3". I agree with that this is better than fluf that just poofs away.

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Event totals: 2.4” Snow/0.22” L.E.

 

It took a bit of time for the snow to start accumulating yesterday evening since the temperatures were initially above freezing, but it eventually got going.  A lot of the accumulation seemed to happen when that bolus of yellow echoes came through:

 

19FEB13A.gif

 

The overall snow density came in fairly high with the dense, slushy stuff as the bottom of the core, but it was almost ¼” of liquid.  It sounds like we might have the chance for a bit more snow as well – the point forecast here sums to the 5-10” range through Thursday night, although that’s a bit higher than what is likely in the lower elevations based on the forecast discussion from BTV:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 348 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. FROUDE NUMBER...WHICH INDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF BLOCKED FLOW...SUGGESTS THE FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THUS LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW SHOULD EVEN DEVELOP FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOOKING AT 1-3 OR 2-4 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS...4 TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE SCENARIO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

 

Below I’ve got the north to south listing of snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas that I’ve seen reported in so far.  Heading from north to south, it seems that Bolton & MRG did fairly well:

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 5”

Pico: 4”

Killington: 4”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 4”

Stratton: 3”

Mount Snow: 4”

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.22 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.9

Snow Density: 9.2% H2O

Temperature: 26.6 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

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how does the concord, NH area look for this weekend? I'm at the Fairfield inn off exit 13...for work, not skiing :( but may have to move to a new work area sat or sun...i don't want to drive if its going to be bad...

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how does the concord, NH area look for this weekend? I'm at the Fairfield inn off exit 13...for work, not skiing :( but may have to move to a new work area sat or sun...i don't want to drive if its going to be bad...

oh, anyone in the area want to try to meet up for dinner or something?

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So if the flow is going to become blocked we're looking at bigger accum along western-facing slopes, right? The latest KBTV AFD doesn't specify. Yesterday afternoon their AFD said Froude number would be between 1-2 but now it sounds like it'll decrease to <1 as the upslope event progresses. (n00b questions I know; plotting ski destination(s) for tomorrow/Fri)

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Nice little event here. Haven't been out to measure yet but looks to be about 3". I agree with that this is better than fluf that just poofs away.

To use a SNE term, AIT, 3" on the nose.  Sounds like we ccould get a few more inches over the next couple of days.

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0.3" fluff at the start, 0.1" IP at the end (though a patch of 20-25 dbz went over MBY 7:30-8 this morning - 1/4"?), and almost 0.6" RA at 32-33F in between. Not quite the 4-8" anticipated - more warmth at 925? Late redevelopment? Some of both?

GYX at 3 AM was still thinking 2-4" backside wraparound for the foothills - would've been nicer for the roads than that sleet. Mile Hill was nasty, rear wheels started doing their own thing half a dozen times during the climb, until I moved over to the untracked IP area; the pebble-grain was better than the packed ice. Several twisty-curly tire tracks, and a van (Kaplan Electric) crosswise in the ditch on the south side of the hill.

Recent gfs runs offer some hope for the weekend, though the chance for cirrus/flurries probably remains for inland areas, and also some blue bombs out in clown range.

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So if the flow is going to become blocked we're looking at bigger accum along western-facing slopes, right? The latest KBTV AFD doesn't specify. Yesterday afternoon their AFD said Froude number would be between 1-2 but now it sounds like it'll decrease to <1 as the upslope event progresses. (n00b questions I know; plotting ski destination(s) for tomorrow/Fri)

Correct.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/profile/froude/

 

Eastern Slopes want 1-2. Western slopes cash in between 0.5-1.0 .If it gets too low, like down to near 0.25, the Champlain Valley takes home the prize.

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0.3" fluff at the start, 0.1" IP at the end (though a patch of 20-25 dbz went over MBY 7:30-8 this morning - 1/4"?), and almost 0.6" RA at 32-33F in between. Not quite the 4-8" anticipated - more warmth at 925? Late redevelopment? Some of both?

GYX at 3 AM was still thinking 2-4" backside wraparound for the foothills - would've been nicer for the roads than that sleet. Mile Hill was nasty, rear wheels started doing their own thing half a dozen times during the climb, until I moved over to the untracked IP area; the pebble-grain was better than the packed ice. Several twisty-curly tire tracks, and a van (Kaplan Electric) crosswise in the ditch on the south side of the hill.

Recent gfs runs offer some hope for the weekend, though the chance for cirrus/flurries probably remains for inland areas, and also some blue bombs out in clown range.

 

We will need some help sitting out on the fringe once again for the weekend storm

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2.7" new. Nice. Going home this weekend to rain. Of course.

 

 

lol, We got folks worried about rain, And i am about snow...........lol

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radar must have gotten "reborn" after midnite for NNH, bc i had about 1.2 at that point and i woke up to about 2.5 inches in jackson nh , .5 s of dana place inn.

 

wonder if we get an upslope snows today. prob dumping on mt. wash judgind by upslope clouds over mtn

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radar must have gotten "reborn" after midnite for NNH, bc i had about 1.2 at that point and i woke up to about 2.5 inches in jackson nh , .5 s of dana place inn.

 

wonder if we get an upslope snows today. prob dumping on mt. wash judgind by upslope clouds over mtn

Looks like the last part of the snow pivoted on its way out of NEK and NNH and may have helped the numbers.  Unfortunately I can't save the whole run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

nerad4.jpg

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We will need some help sitting out on the fringe once again for the weekend storm

I'm a little more optimistic than you about this one. We may not jackpot (that is of course always reserved for interior SE MA or CT), but I think we'll end up doing OK. Maybe I'm just trying to cheer myself up after last night's unmitigated disaster.

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I'm a little more optimistic than you about this one. We may not jackpot (that is of course always reserved for interior SE MA or CT), but I think we'll end up doing OK. Maybe I'm just trying to cheer myself up after last night's unmitigated disaster.

the euro ensemble is quite promising up here. Doing well here is very much on the table.

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I'm a little more optimistic than you about this one. We may not jackpot (that is of course always reserved for interior SE MA or CT), but I think we'll end up doing OK. Maybe I'm just trying to cheer myself up after last night's unmitigated disaster.

I share your optimism. I believe this one has legs for our 'hood.

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radar must have gotten "reborn" after midnite for NNH, bc i had about 1.2 at that point and i woke up to about 2.5 inches in jackson nh , .5 s of dana place inn.

 

wonder if we get an upslope snows today. prob dumping on mt. wash judgind by upslope clouds over mtn

 

That cloud is showing up as a nice blob of blue on radar ...MWOBS says 1-3 today, 1-3 overnight, T-2 tomorrow. MTW Avy Ctr says 4" fell overnight at summit and Hermit Lake. 

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