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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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it is 6 days out, is a late developer, and the pattern is complex...I expect it will fluctuate greatly and I expect there is a good chance we will get screwed.

Solutions have already been all over the map.  But, the signal for a good-sized storm this weekend has been advertised by both globals for a few days already.  Seems our antecedent airmass will at least be better than what we'll have for Wednesday/Thursday.  

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Solutions have already been all over the map. But, the signal for a good-sized storm this weekend has been advertised by both globals for a few days already. Seems our antecedent airmass will at least be better than what we'll have for Wednesday/Thursday.

I am interested to be sure..the pattern is ripe...But there is even more reason than usual to ignore a day 6 solution

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it is 6 days out, is a late developer, and the pattern is complex...I expect it will fluctuate greatly and I expect there is a good chance we will get screwed.

Of course we will dude. BUt it's nice to dream. Look at the difference between 0z and this run. I can see 0z being the solution we end up with. Dry and partly sunny.

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PD III can actually get better than the GFS has modeled. The h5 is still strung out and not consolidated. With the high lattitude blocking like we have, I expect more consolidation for the final solution. Could that mean an Apps runner? Yes. But it could also mean a high QPF,slow moving snow bomb up the entire east coast. Regardless of any individual model run, The overall players look great on the GFS, and i think thats all there is to take away at this point.

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