canderson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol this winter is pretty annoying.Fixed your post, bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 looks like my fear of a euro gfs/nam compromise is coming true. Can't seem to buy a significant snow in this area lately. Everything I have seen from 0z so far is not going to get it done, NAM/RGEM/GFS would all be mostly light rain mixing with snow during heavier bursts. Maybe an inch or two at the end but even that is stretching it. We needed to get the more dynamic solutions that all the models except the euro were throwing out the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 hahaha agreed. we all need an 8 to 12 event that stays on the models for 3 to 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Final call. This winter sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 hahaha agreed. we all need an 8 to 12 event that stays on the models for 3 to 5 days. No we need a storm to pop up within 36hrs and stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Final call. This winter sucks.. HWPCsnow.gif Well, Zach....I stayed with you til the bitter end, supporting your original forecast. At least you were kind enough to still keep me in your highest total area...lol.....1 to 3. Even if this doesn't pan out, there are still a few more threats in the pipeline going into and through next week before the whole thing probably collapses. I'm getting tired of the let-downs which really have come more from watching good storms out beyond 72 hours for days, getting excited about the potential, then the proverbial let-down as the storm wimps out. I'd rather just jump right to spring and let temps begin to warm back up than keep on being subjected to weenie torture (notice, I didn't say "torches" ...lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I hope you don't mind me posting in here, I live right along the Mason Dixon line. This storm is hard to pin down being such a small vort in the flow. I do not think the euro is right, but my worry is that the NAM and RGEM coming in dryer and kind of disorganized until late means we might end up with a compromise between the euro and the GFS/NAM runs of the last few days. That won't work for us, we need a dynamic system or its going to be 35 with light rain/snow mix and no accumulations. This has to be a thump. Hope the GFS comes in wet and puts some of my fear to rest but I have always felt nervous having the euro staring us down like that. Hey there. You are more than welcome to post here. We don't bite and we don't play the exclusivity game, either! Thanks for your thoughts on this system. Wish you could finally get a decent one also down by you! Latest readings from here at 11:30 are 28/21 still with clear skies and calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Zack, on a side note - further east you might want to increase those totals. NYC might see a 3-6" (ofc they jackpot.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I second this. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Zack, on a side note - further east you might want to increase those totals. NYC might see a 3-6" (ofc they jackpot.) Maybe but, I think it fails overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Again, lol, things were going okay this winter with Zack gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Serious question I don't have time to look, my mother inlaw just passed away and their talking about a Sunday / Monday service. What's the story with weekend storm? My sympathies, Jon and especially to your wife. BTW, "What weekend storm???" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 precip already looking north of model runs.....largest snow for SCPA in years tomorrow night. and I am on the west coast for business. this will surprise many including news outlets. 3-5" widespread it is happening at the right time evening will see the heaviest snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ah yes, unfortunately there's a double-edged sword with a northward jog in any model solution. You get closer to the surface low and you'll also be closer to the warmer air profiles. Sure, you'll have more precip, but if it's not heavy enough to dynamically cool, then it's not going to amount to much more than some slop. I bumped my ranges about 20-30 miles to the south tonight to account for the Euro/CMC and the possibilities of it being drier than modeled. These pesky little shorts can sometimes cause model headaches because they are such subtle little systems. I'm unsure about 3-4 amounts, but I respect your call. For the sake of snow lovers, I'd love to be wrong and someone gets a 5'er, but I just can't see it with marginal BL temps and not a very robust system. Yea the overnight models certainly weren't supportive of the prospect of much more than the general 1-2 inches. Just saw the 03z SREFs.. has a zone of much weaker probs for 1+ for the Sus Valley in between good probs for the Laurels and in Philly/NJ/NYC where the storm hits the coast and ramps up a bit. The Philly/NJ/NYC area had half decent probs for 4+ as well. New HPC probs kept a slight 10% chance of 4+ across the PA southern tier, but I'm def starting to think anything approaching that is gonna wait til further east..if at all. When I mentioned the thin stripe of 3-4", I was talking a pretty small area where we could potentially have a heavier band set up later in the storm (during the night time) that maybe thumps some snow down. The most likely place of course being near or a bit above the Mason Dixon where the best precip is still progged but still far enough north that heavier precip would yield accumulating snow. Still something I'd watch for, but the aforementioned temp issues along with mainly lackluster precip rates look to put a damper on it. Either way this threat def not what it looked like a couple days ago when it was looking to be a widespread advisory type event with the potential for warning amounts within that. Beyond this event it looks like our weekend threat is just not going to have time to materialize for anyone as the deep trough keeps on progressing east. Next storm chance starting to center more on next Tuesday with GFS/Euro having a lakes low currently. Euro kind of has the look of an attempted miller B with it..but the finer details are trivial at this juncture of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Seriously...I'd like to push the whole thing down to DC and forget about it. I'm sick of the salt and mess from what amounts to virtually nothing when you take into consideration the melt off in a day or two. Final call. This winter sucks.. HWPCsnow.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea, not worth the mess for such minor accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpers61 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Having some of the same fears at Matt here. Worried temps will not climb as quick with lows starting out much colder this morning. We could see quicker column cooling if sfc temps don't climb enough. Most QPF's are 0.2"-0.4". Most solutions still showing a majority fo it falling as rain. Had to go with lower numbers today though, just not 100% convicned this will amount to much with warm, wet grounds needing to cool and low snowfall rates. See the NWS followed as well. But will be itneresting to see if the models handle the codler sfc temps well with precip starting as rain early. 03Z SREF has low probs for Susq Valley 1+ snow.Here's the broad brush AM map we're going with....WMight see a few 3" spots in the elevations. Just curious to see how this pans out when I wake up tomorrow morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sauss sorry to hear about the loss of your MIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Having some of the same fears at Matt here. Worried temps will not climb as quick with lows starting out much colder this morning. We could see quicker column cooling if sfc temps don't climb enough. Most QPF's are 0.2"-0.4". Most solutions still showing a majority fo it falling as rain. Had to go with lower numbers today though, just not 100% convicned this will amount to much with warm, wet grounds needing to cool and low snowfall rates. See the NWS followed as well. But will be itneresting to see if the models handle the codler sfc temps well with precip starting as rain early. 03Z SREF has low probs for Susq Valley 1+ snow. Here's the broad brush AM map we're going with.... http://tribwpmt.files.wordpress.com/2013/ 02/webphoto11.jpgWMight see a few 3" spots in the elevations. Just curious to see how this pans out when I wake up tomorrow morning.... Looks great! That is exactly what I said yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sorry for your loss Sauss. You wont be missing much around here. Take care and maybe when you get thru this we'll have something fun to track next week. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Continuing the theme of low temps. LNS is around 5 degrees colder than moldeled by the NAM and GFS. At my location it is closer to 8 degrees colder. I guess we will see if temps rebound to their modeled highs. It seems to me that just a few degrees in this type of situation can make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 RAP looks decent fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 24/22 here now. CTP calling for up to 1" and I doubt we get that on cars. Happy Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thanks everyone for the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm ready for spring. All hail King EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea, at least spring can bring interesting severe wx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm ready for spring. All hail King EURO. Did someone say baseball?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Did someone say another mediocre Red Sox season?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm ready for spring. All hail King EURO. Yea, at least spring can bring interesting severe wx... I hope at least part of it is at least normal. I am hoping for fruit from this saturn peach tree in my backyard and it is very difficult to get past April without going below 20 here. A warm March like last year causes them to blossom early. If we are hailing King EURO, it said last night that we can't put our shovel away here in central PA. It has moderate snow threats 2/20 and 2/23. Hopefully they will be less annoying than this current thing this evening. For all you Always Sunny in Philadelphia fans, this "storm" was the Gail the Snail of winter systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol Im ready...even if my Dodgers arent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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