JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Did someone say another mediocre Red Sox season?! Man, I sort of like the Red Sox even though I am an O's/Bucs fans, and I can't go there. Since Sept 2011, they have absolutely gone beyond the Geneva Convention as far as torturing their poor fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol Im ready...even if my Dodgers arent Try being a Bucco fan. I might as well be a fan of 1-2 foot snowstorms and live in Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea the overnight models certainly weren't supportive of the prospect of much more than the general 1-2 inches. Just saw the 03z SREFs.. has a zone of much weaker probs for 1+ for the Sus Valley in between good probs for the Laurels and in Philly/NJ/NYC where the storm hits the coast and ramps up a bit. The Philly/NJ/NYC area had half decent probs for 4+ as well. New HPC probs kept a slight 10% chance of 4+ across the PA southern tier, but I'm def starting to think anything approaching that is gonna wait til further east..if at all. When I mentioned the thin stripe of 3-4", I was talking a pretty small area where we could potentially have a heavier band set up later in the storm (during the night time) that maybe thumps some snow down. The most likely place of course being near or a bit above the Mason Dixon where the best precip is still progged but still far enough north that heavier precip would yield accumulating snow. Still something I'd watch for, but the aforementioned temp issues along with mainly lackluster precip rates look to put a damper on it. Either way this threat def not what it looked like a couple days ago when it was looking to be a widespread advisory type event with the potential for warning amounts within that. Beyond this event it looks like our weekend threat is just not going to have time to materialize for anyone as the deep trough keeps on progressing east. Next storm chance starting to center more on next Tuesday with GFS/Euro having a lakes low currently. Euro kind of has the look of an attempted miller B with it..but the finer details are trivial at this juncture of course. The one after that on the 23rd looks more impressive to my amateur eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Continuing the theme of low temps. LNS is around 5 degrees colder than moldeled by the NAM and GFS. At my location it is closer to 8 degrees colder. I guess we will see if temps rebound to their modeled highs. It seems to me that just a few degrees in this type of situation can make a difference. MOS has a horrible time around here with nights where skies are clear and winds are calm... more often than not it gets colder then rebounds during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Try being a Bucco fan. I might as well be a fan of 1-2 foot snowstorms and live in Williamsport. Ouch! lol....truth hurts I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ouch! lol....truth hurts I guess. hey, where else can I crack that joke and someone will get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Did someone say another mediocre Red Sox season?! Hey now ... at least we have an infield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Again, lol, things were going okay this winter with Zack gone. Ya how much snow did you get? 10" maybe? Ya epic winter since I been gone alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Interesting stuff about next week here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39088-february-15-morch-possible-wintry-threats/page-22#entry2118213 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 MOS has a horrible time around here with nights where skies are clear and winds are calm... more often than not it gets colder then rebounds during the day Indeed it does. NAM & GFS MOS guidance both had a low of 30 last night for MDT. The observed low was 23/24. Similar numbers below MOS all across the region as well. I think I posted last night about a best-case scenario for us. One where we radiationally cooled more efficiently than expected (which we apparently did), and where clouds would roll in around day break. That would be the ideal set up for colder air. It seems as though that thinking wasn't too far off from what is happening. It's 30 in MDT and below freezing over the entire Susquehanna Valley as of 9am. MOS has temps in the mid 30's by 10a so we'll see if there'll be a rebound on the next update, but looking outside it won't be the sunshine heating us up as it has clouded over here in Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Car thermo says 36 near mountville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 My leg is tired from punting all these storms as soon as they get into realistic range...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 My leg is tired from punting all these storms as soon as they get into realistic range...lol EURO and GFS gives you two more chances after this weekend to punt so get that leg ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Up to 40 just south of york Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol Im punting on 2nd down to get it over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol Im punting on 2nd down to get it over with. Punting has become a foreign concept since o'brien came to happy valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea, at least spring can bring interesting severe wx... Yeah. Just like last year. Oh wait... This winter, as lame as it may have been for some, has brought just enough cold and snow to break the almost 2 year long span of boring nonsensical weather that made Harrisburg, PA seem more like San Jose, California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Haha you have a point man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mesoscale banding setting up a little farther northwest than I would have expected into far southern Indiana and Ohio. If it can survive long enough, it could drop a quick 1-2" a little farther north into Clearfield and Centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Punting has become a foreign concept since o'brien came to happy valley Too bad these aren't 4th and 1's from the opponents' side of midfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Too bad these aren't 4th and 1's from the opponents' side of midfield. Also, there's no meteorological equivalent to Kyle Carter or Jesse James. So we're still screwed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah. Just like last year. Oh wait... This winter, as lame as it may have been for some, has brought just enough cold and snow to break the almost 2 year long span of boring nonsensical weather that made Harrisburg, PA seem more like San Jose, California. 2012 was very boring but 2011 really wasn't. In 2011, we had: - higher than average amount of tornadoes. - Insanely hot July - an epic flood - September and annual all-time rainfall record for Harrisburg - October's record snowstorm Then after October's snow, time to snooze. It got so bad CTP was posting about updated flood crests from old floods in their site's features/event page: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 13z HRRR Accumulated snow to 11pm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mesoscale banding setting up a little farther northwest than I would have expected into far southern Indiana and Ohio. If it can survive long enough, it could drop a quick 1-2" a little farther north into Clearfield and Centre. Glad you mentioned that. I was thinking I had a radar hallucination. It really doesn't look like a miss but I guess it still will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 13z HRRR Accumulated snow to 11pm tonight If I somehow end up getting more snow than Atomicwx/Sauss/Neffsville/York I'm going to feel guilty. Although it has me getting an inch because the HRRR always gives the Allegheny Front ridge more snow no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea guys same here, looked good. What will stop it...dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol 4 to 6 in philly doesnt give me confidence in that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea guys same here, looked good. What will stop it...dry air? The fact that this storm is the most annoying thing in weather ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol 4 to 6 in philly doesnt give me confidence in that model. HRRR does change from hour to hour sometimes but it nailed the snowfall for central and southeast PA from "Nemo" Friday morning showing we were not going to receive anything from the coastal low but from the weakening low that was crossing the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Is it just me or does radar look kinda good? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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