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January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
Posted

I'm not paid to deliver a forecast on TV (thank god...). I realize its a tough position.

 

He's very easily in that pay bracket considering he's chief meteorologist in a top 5 or 6 market.

 

Then why bash him, really?

 

You are a good hobbyist who has posted for a while, I don't see how you can legitimately get on anybody for being "wrong" in this event. There was nothing "conventional" about it and little model consensus the entire time. I don't need to go over it, you know, you are not stupid.

 

The media has no duty to the public, their job is to make a profit. If the public is listening to todays popular media on anything, they have a problem but thats a different issue.

 

Are you implying somehow that Pete was intentionally wrong? Otherwise, you have no point whatsoever. DOT crews, schools and the general public are not weenies, if they have been on this earth a little while they know "better to be over prepared than under prepared" at least in DOT land. If it busts low, they are happy, if it busts high well... that never happens anyways.

 

How would you have done better forecasting this event? Do you think if I started paying you to forecast the WX tomorrow, you would all the sudden be better at it because you are "not paid to be wrong"? It makes little sense, forget this one and move on to Friday and the next forecast.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Then why bash him, really?

 

You are a good hobbyist who has posted for a while, I don't see how you can legitimately get on anybody for being "wrong" in this event. There was nothing "conventional" about it and little model consensus the entire time. I don't need to go over it, you know, you are not stupid.

 

The media has no duty to the public, their job is to make a profit. If the public is listening to todays popular media on anything, they have a problem but thats a different issue.

 

Are you implying somehow that Pete was intentionally wrong? Otherwise, you have no point whatsoever. DOT crews, schools and the general public are not weenies, if they have been on this earth a little while they know "better to be over prepared than under prepared" at least in DOT land. If it busts low, they are happy, if it busts high well... that never happens anyways.

 

How would you have done better forecasting this event? Do you think if I started paying you to forecast the WX tomorrow, you would all the sudden be better at it because you are "not paid to be wrong"? It makes little sense, forget this one and move on to Friday and the next forecast.

THANK YOU. This is the point I always try to bring up when people say meteorologists suck at their job. Do you think they TRY to be wrong?  Like I said earlier, just because he might get 6 figures and maybe 300K...doesn't mean he has access to some special models that people getting paid 50K don't have...he does what he can. 

 

People these days. lol

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BostonWX

BostonWX

Posted
Posted

Then why bash him, really?

You are a good hobbyist who has posted for a while, I don't see how you can legitimately get on anybody for being "wrong" in this event. There was nothing "conventional" about it and little model consensus the entire time. I don't need to go over it, you know, you are not stupid.

The media has no duty to the public, their job is to make a profit. If the public is listening to todays popular media on anything, they have a problem but thats a different issue.

Are you implying somehow that Pete was intentionally wrong? Otherwise, you have no point whatsoever. DOT crews, schools and the general public are not weenies, if they have been on this earth a little while they know "better to be over prepared than under prepared" at least in DOT land. If it busts low, they are happy, if it busts high well... that never happens anyways.

How would you have done better forecasting this event? Do you think if I started paying you to forecast the WX tomorrow, you would all the sudden be better at it because you are "not paid to be wrong"? It makes little sense, forget this one and move on to Friday and the next forecast.

My point was not meant to bash him. My point was to show WeatherMa how MOST people view the profession. Its not my point of view . I understand the complexity of the situation, but not everybody is on this forum. I have no criticism personally for these OCM. but the reality is that most people view it the way I laid it out. That is why people are angry

People who watch the broadcasts are most likely employed in professions where, if you don't perform, you are fired. They can't and do not see it from our perspective. Again, this is not my perspective because I am a hobbyist. But this is the source of that anger. I have personally heard this argument before.

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
Posted

My point was not meant to bash him. My point was to show WeatherMa how MOST people view the profession. Its not my point of view . I understand the complexity of the situation, but not everybody is on this forum. I have no criticism personally for these OCM. but the reality is that most people view it the way I laid it out. That is why people bare angry.

 

Well you did say

 

"THere were embarrassingly high totals forecasted by OCM's. The public does, and should, be able to take them seriously. And they should have a right to be angry"

 

Sounds like your personal opinion as opposed to trying to put the "lay persons" glasses on. Though you did that in later posts, it is the bold that people are on you about.

 

You are implying that he went bullish for fun or something. We see what we see between the data, our background knowledge of the science and personal experience (or lack thereof) for a specific area. Nobody goes out to make a bad forecast. Their news directors don't want them to have the same forecast as everybody else, they are paid to be independent and bring knowledge to the table that enhances the quality of their crappy newscasts. The on air mets do the best they can but they have an obligation to nobody except the person who pays their salary.

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BostonWX

BostonWX

Posted
Posted

Well you did say

"THere were embarrassingly high totals forecasted by OCM's. The public does, and should, be able to take them seriously. And they should have a right to be angry"

Sounds like your personal opinion as opposed to trying to put the "lay persons" glasses on. Though you did that in later posts, it is the bold that people are on you about.

You are implying that he went bullish for fun or something. We see what we see between the data, our background knowledge of the science and personal experience (or lack thereof) for a specific area. Nobody goes out to make a bad forecast. Their news directors don't want them to have the same forecast as everybody else, they are paid to be independent and bring knowledge to the table that enhances the quality of their crappy newscasts. The on air mets do the best they can but they have an obligation to nobody except the person who pays their salary.

Obviously I am aware of how fickle these storms are. I thought that was implied. I followed all of the discussion from hobbyists and mets alike.

My argument is only meant to shoe why people are pissed about the busts.

They should have a right to be angry. A forecast was produced and it busted big time. No knock on the skill of the ocm, but people can get angry at such a bust when they have no idea of the complexity of the situation

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

Posted
Posted

I think the main reason people get upset is because they expect some kind of accountability , either an apology for a bad forecast or admitting they were wrong. I have NEVER heard of a on air met ever saying they were wrong and they would try not to bust again, I think that is why people get mad. Hard science or not, people get fired for poor performance, even in engineering and financial advisors and they make forecasts all the time! I didn't know forecasters actually had to change there forecasts for ratings??? that is so anti science which really makes me sad.

 

 

 

Edit: the only forecasters I have ever seen take responsibility for their forecasts are Paul Knight and Fred Gadomski from PSU. They keep track of their accuracy with a statistic table, and they are nearly always 80% or above, they are my some of my favorite mets for that reason!!

 

www.weatherworld.psu.edu/

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

If this is where you are @ now (which is okay),  check out how the NWS and etc public domains do their verifications

I think the main reason people get upset is because they expect some kind of accountability , either an apology for a bad forecast or admitting they were wrong. I have NEVER heard of a on air met ever saying they were wrong and they would try not to bust again, I think that is why people get mad. Hard science or not, people get fired for poor performance, even in engineering and financial advisors and they make forecasts all the time! I didn't know forecasters actually had to change there forecasts for ratings??? that is so anti science which really makes me sad.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

This never should have been forecast to the extent it was when the model with the best verification score said no way and was too high on the last one. The rgem which was probably close to best last time also never bit. It was always a late blooming offshore low with the same old inverted trough nonsense spat out by the ncep guidance chiefly. I said this all along and felt that way because the ncep stuff has been unreliable, and the reliable models of late had no semblance of the snows to that degree.

The srefs have been atrocious lately. The nam and gfs also continue to overdo forecasts. This had potential to be more but that potential IMO was overstated for most.

I'm glad I stuck to a coating to 2 or 3. I was worried that the first pulse would go south which was the reason for the coating. Luckily it didn't and what did fell accumulated quickly or this was a total flop.

I thought this was a stinker and that the euro was more right than wrong but had wished that the meso model talk would bear fruit. So the typhoon tip storm is in the books, next (aside is a fast moving band that may clip cape cod)

Ouchies to the forecasts for major snows based on ncep guidance alone. I doubt many forecasters will bite on the ncep stuff next time and as it usually works one of these next few an extreme ncep solution will work out.

Next.

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