powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 These threads are created because there is a specific threat on the horizon, not becasue of a specific location. Ehh yes and no. Not because of a specific location, but a threat "of snow or wintery weather in New England." Prior to that GFS run that was posted to start the thread when all the sudden we were like, whoa that's not a cutter to Toronto but something that resembles a winter storm, you broke off and started this thread. If you read back through the early stages of that thread on the 20-24th period, there were posts of folks hoping that one worked out because the one after it was a torch/rainstorm. We typically do not start threads 7 days out on potential rainstorms in January. It was just once that run of the GFS showed the potential for wintery weather, this thread was started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ehh yes and no. Not because of a specific location, but a threat "of snow or wintery weather in New England." Prior to that GFS run that was posted to start the thread when all the sudden we were like, whoa that's not a cutter to Toronto but something that resembles a winter storm, you broke off and started this thread. If you read back through the early stages of that thread on the 20-24th period, there were posts of folks hoping that one worked out because the one after it was a torch/rainstorm. We typically do not start threads 7 days out on potential rainstorms in January. It was just once that run of the GFS showed the potential for wintery weather, this thread was started. We just did 80 pages of obs and discussion on a storm that amounted to next to nothing/nothing in every major city from Portland to NYC. But for the record I like breaking out the threads. With this next one I favor the non-bomb scenarios just from a practical standpoint. I have NOT looked really at all, just working off of the few maps I've seen and the general pattern I have a hard time seeing a sudden change to a pattern that's going to support a major system. Fast moving flow, fast moving systems and lately that's been favoring extreme coastal areas. Until we get to Wednesday/48 hours in, that's my thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol bickering No better way to start the day than with a strong cup of coffee and some bickering on AMWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 EURO and GFS at 72h for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's coming boys! Get your weenies, slant sticks and kite boards ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 With this next one I favor the non-bomb scenarios just from a practical standpoint. I have NOT looked really at all, just working off of the few maps I've seen and the general pattern I have a hard time seeing a sudden change to a pattern that's going to support a major system. Fast moving flow, fast moving systems and lately that's been favoring extreme coastal areas. Until we get to Wednesday/48 hours in, that's my thought. I like a 4-8 inch snowfall (high end advisory to low end warning? edit: that's probably solid warning for SNE) for pretty much all of SNE right to the coast. The GFS is too far SE and I think the ECM is too amped. That's not an extreme forecast, but seems to be the best way to go right now if I had to forecast for that area. It goes back to what Tip said a couple days ago about how fast this thing is moving across the country... even in a capture scenario, its probably going to keep moving NE at a decent clip at this latitude, which I would think keep any real heavy amounts out of the picture. Anyway, we are still several days out, but I think SNE can get excited for a plowable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the slide may be over, If we can get a partial or full phase, If we continue to see the bomb scenario, For the most part no worriesJust get the 0.80" QPF contour overhead. That's where deformation bands like to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I like a 4-8 inch snowfall (high end advisory to low end warning? edit: that's probably solid warning for SNE) for pretty much all of SNE right to the coast. The GFS is too far SE and I think the ECM is too amped. That's not an extreme forecast, but seems to be the best way to go right now if I had to forecast for that area. It goes back to what Tip said a couple days ago about how fast this thing is moving across the country... even in a capture scenario, its probably going to keep moving NE at a decent clip at this latitude, which I would think keep any real heavy amounts out of the picture. Anyway, we are still several days out, but I think SNE can get excited for a plowable snowfall. I was thinking more like 6-12" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 EURO and GFS at 72h for comparison. Euro f72.gif GFS f72.gif The GFS is a bit nonsensical. It has a better Western Ridge, yet somehow it ends up flat. I'm pretty sure the blocking is similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ehh yes and no. Not because of a specific location, but a threat "of snow or wintery weather in New England." Prior to that GFS run that was posted to start the thread when all the sudden we were like, whoa that's not a cutter to Toronto but something that resembles a winter storm, you broke off and started this thread. If you read back through the early stages of that thread on the 20-24th period, there were posts of folks hoping that one worked out because the one after it was a torch/rainstorm. We typically do not start threads 7 days out on potential rainstorms in January. It was just once that run of the GFS showed the potential for wintery weather, this thread was started. I broke off the thread becasue we had 2 threats on the table not becasue it showed a winter storm in someones backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I like a 4-8 inch snowfall (high end advisory to low end warning? edit: that's probably solid warning for SNE) for pretty much all of SNE right to the coast. The GFS is too far SE and I think the ECM is too amped. That's not an extreme forecast, but seems to be the best way to go right now if I had to forecast for that area. It goes back to what Tip said a couple days ago about how fast this thing is moving across the country... even in a capture scenario, its probably going to keep moving NE at a decent clip at this latitude, which I would think keep any real heavy amounts out of the picture. Anyway, we are still several days out, but I think SNE can get excited for a plowable snowfall. I haven't looked at much so that's a big disclaimer but in this pattern I'd favor a fast moving few inches and would favor SE areas the most. Just tossing this out there but I don't think the later RGEM really supported what the Euro was doing even at the 48 hour range. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but the Canadian stuff has been good as of late. IE if I had to do a compromise it'd be the GGEM/GFS for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I haven't looked at much so that's a big disclaimer but in this pattern I'd favor a fast moving few inches and would favor SE areas the most. Just tossing this out there but I don't think the later RGEM really supported what the Euro was doing even at the 48 hour range. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but the Canadian stuff has been good as of late. IE if I had to do a compromise it'd be the GGEM/GFS for right now. That's where I am at this point. This doesn't seem to be the winter for classic, amplified coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just get the 0.80" QPF contour overhead. That's where deformation bands like to form. Lets do it.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Last night's Euro is nice. Let's hope it continues to be advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's where I am at this point. This doesn't seem to be the winter for classic, amplified coastals. That's where I am at this point. This doesn't seem to be the winter for classic, amplified coastals. At first glance the 6z RGEM, 0z GGEM and 6z GFS are all in reasonable enough agreement across the Pacific NW at 48 hours. The Euro is out on its own with a more amplified structure that doesn't dip at all into Oregon. From there the changes amplify. The GFS/GGEM even the JMA are all in decent agreement that the energy will be elongated up there. The net effect is later on the Euro is a bit more amplified and probably a little faster as the energy didn't get slowed down up in the NW. We'll see, but I'll take the less amplified solutions and regardless we're probably 24-36 hours way from having a clearer picture anyway. WIth modeling where it's been lately....I'll reserve judgment and have no excitement at all for another day or two. This could be a near/whiff, or something still more amplified like the Euro but I really lean SE. Will revisit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol... not to play this game, but to be fair like 5 days ago this was a cutter. Then it started coming SE and this thread was born. I don't recall a euro cutter. GFS yes. Maybe my memory is off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just get the 0.80" QPF contour overhead. That's where deformation bands like to form. This post really made me chuckle...well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You talking about Caroga Lake, NY? In the central southern adriondacks? 0z EURO looks pretty dry in that area. Euro snowmaps dont show anything. I still think that area could do well in this storm as I dont believe the north trend is over. So let me get this straight. I leave the cursed land of the Mid Atlantic....come north to the usual promised land, and DC will get their first significant snow of the season and I'll be bone dry. Seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't recall a euro cutter. GFS yes. Maybe my memory is off... My memory is probably off as well...if it did it was far enough in la la land to not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 My memory is probably off as well...if it did it was far enough in la la land to not matter. earlier runs of the EURO had it cutting toward PIT, this is the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 earlier runs of the EURO had it cutting toward PIT, this is the OP. Ok in that case I play the age card wrt memory.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The Friday deal is probably the best look we've had since Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The Friday deal is probably the best look we've had since Jan 2011.And yet we still have some poo poo ing it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 nam is starting to look like its going to have the bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The Friday deal is probably the best look we've had since Jan 2011. For once not dealing with rotting cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The Friday deal is probably the best look we've had since Jan 2011. What am I paying you for?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think we could be looking at 8-12 with this region wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think we could be looking at 8-12 with this region wide... I think I'd still like to see the GFS come on board for at least .4" across the region before we start suggesting anything in the vicinity of a warning-criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 After yesterday, They should stop running the Nam...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think I'd still like to see the GFS come on board for at least .4" across the region before we start suggesting anything in the vicinity of a warning-criteria event. Why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.