Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 What's smaller? We havent had a 2 inch event in 2 years. I know, I get what you're saying but even a grass coverer will be big at this point. yeah...1-2" events...or maybe bigger..we are going to break the 2" streak, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 \ The pattern on the 240 hrs GEFS and Euro ensemble means are not that bad. Both have low heights near nova scotia and higher heights over Greenland. The ridge position is along the west ocast is better. The only bad thing is the lack of a southern stream and the below normal heights over AK just north of the flat ridge. The latter may let more energy than we'd like get into western Canada with that energy digging towards the lakes where we could have northern stream clipper type lows going to our north. Still it's not a bad look to smaller sneak up events. Pretty much a climo look in terms of snow chances, not great but not totally horrendous like this week. Jan_10_240hr_2013.png definitely not hostile...I think a 2-4" event would be celebrated..I just want to see .30" of QPF on run without temp issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 definitely not hostile...I think a 2-4" event would be celebrated..I just want to see .30" of QPF on run without temp issues.... I'd do cartwheels for a clipper that starts, stays, and ends as snow with temp =<30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 definitely not hostile...I think a 2-4" event would be celebrated..I just want to see .30" of QPF on run without temp issues.... I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". prepare for a lecture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". haha...without those we'd probably average 7-8" a winter or similar to Raleigh - Durham...enjoy your punting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". you mean <1", don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS has mitchnicks wintry mix for MRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS has mitchnicks wintry mix for MRB Been possible for several runs now. Wide range of possibilities on the ens. members. I don't think I'd give up on this one even in the cities. Several GFS ens members try to get the cold in here a bit faster than the op. seems to bleed in from the north moreso than a nw-w cold front type trajectory. They also have some partially interesting setups in the 156-180 range. I think it was the Euro 0z that had a similar "near miss" type storm with the cold pushing in in this manner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 you mean <1", don't you? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Been possible for several runs now. Wide range of possibilities on the ens. members. I don't think I'd give up on this one even in the cities. you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself. There is none. If I lived where he did, I'd be optimistic. But there is almost zero reason for us to hold out any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself. It appears you've confused him with someone who knows what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 the OP GFS has the nice pattern day 10-12 then breaks down and snaps back to default crappy though probably not that warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 So, it seems we get a couple cold blasts, pattern retreats a few days and as the pattern reloads, we are looking for something positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 A question in my mind for next week is how deep the cold air can get into our area with that initial cold push. It looks like normally-cold places like Chicago are around 30 for a high temp on Monday but then go up to 40/low 40s by next Wed before coming back down to L-M30s for late next week, when snow chances go up for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 So, it seems we get a couple cold blasts, pattern retreats a few days and as the pattern reloads, we are looking for something positive? I dont think we need to make assumptions about 300+ hours out....but it certainly would make sense that we snap back into a RNA pattern...who knows...the evidence for day 9-12 or so is piling up that it may be good...we just need a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There is none. If I lived where he did, I'd be optimistic. But there is almost zero reason for us to hold out any hope. even out there the op is warmer than it was last night at least at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I dont think we need to make assumptions about 300+ hours out....but it certainly would make sense that we snap back into a RNA pattern...who knows...the evidence for day 9-12 or so is piling up that it may be good...we just need a storm It seems like we've got two options-- 1. Hope a pinwheel sw comes around that strong vortex. Very possible-- I also think that second Fropa may have some snow showers in front of it as those stronger artic pushes tend to wring out all the moisture. that's be a tracker special- >1 inch. ( really like .5) 2. Some marks of a sw later in the second cold snap, as the cold "may" be lifting out. Ugg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The end of the GFS is horrid and goes back to where we are right now. Lets hope thats not the case as it may be too late at that point for that pattern to break down and salvage something for the cities this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The euro is trying to do something really dirty next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro's not too excited about the 'event' mid next week. Far W MD, N WV get a bit of frozen at least. Looks like SW PA is the best spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Loving some hr 198 snow into ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The euro is trying to do something really dirty next Friday that's what you get for bashing the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The euro is trying to do something really dirty next Friday gets snow to southern burbs, but the usual BS with the southern stream this year...weak pathetic 1012 low ambles off the southeast coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 that's what you get for bashing the southern stream. gets snow to southern burbs, but the usual BS with the southern stream this year...weak pathetic 1012 low ambles off the southeast coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Loving some hr 198 snow into ric when I saw the SE guys talking about the arctic push not being as far south and the ULL heading further north I wondered when Midlo would post...right on queue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 gets snow to southern burbs, but the usual BS with the southern stream this year...weak pathetic 1012 low ambles off the southeast coast.... still pretty qpf loaded for now. of course it will probably dry but it brings 1" liquid to the nc/va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Matt is nailing the 1012mb sheared out crap storms he posted earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Matt is nailing the 1012mb sheared out crap storms he posted earlier all we need is some moisture.. better than no moisture i thought we werent looking for a mecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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