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Midlo Snow Maker

January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

1,752 posts in this topic

The good news is that the Ens mean pattern does look like the ao and nao will go negative in the extended.  Initially the trough axis is too far west to do us much good but by around the 19th or so the pattern looks pretty similar to the one where Leesburg and points west cashed in.  Still looks less than perfect for the eastern crowd, my house, but is an improvement over the pattern during the next 10 days to two weeks. 

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37 for a high yesterday, coldest so far, 26 at midnight, coldest so far for time, and 23 for a low, coldest so far.  Good winter day with low sun, I'll take it in a heartbeat over 60/45.

Still no Mongolian Hihg Pressure but see an above average chance of that taking hold in 1/10-1/15 time frame. Game not over yet, continues on life support as I have suggested since about 12/15-12/20.

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The good news is that the Ens mean pattern does look like the ao and nao will go negative in the extended.  Initially the trough axis is too far west to do us much good but by around the 19th or so the pattern looks pretty similar to the one where Leesburg and points west cashed in.  Still looks less than perfect for the eastern crowd, my house, but is an improvement over the pattern during the next 10 days to two weeks. 

 

i told you to hang in there!

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37 for a high yesterday, coldest so far, 26 at midnight, coldest so far for time, and 23 for a low, coldest so far.  Good winter day with low sun, I'll take it in a heartbeat over 60/45.

Still no Mongolian Hihg Pressure but see an above average chance of that taking hold in 1/10-1/15 time frame. Game not over yet, continues on life support as I have suggested since about 12/15-12/20.

 

 

My day after Christmas high was a few tenths lower, but this morning's low puts today as the coldest of the season so far.  Without the wind of the past few weeks it is just crisp rather than unpleasant.

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It might at DCA if the Euro's 850 temps verify with some sun and maybe a downsloping wind. 

It was around this time last year that the ECMWF was showing the same thing for DC in the extended, and over did it as well.

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Meant to quote that it was about a year ago we were hoping for the SSW -

 

Sorry for the confusion!

 

Noted that it made us all have false hope last year!! False hope in models never seems to cease in the Weenie Wonder Land! I am a big Weenie that hopes it works for us this year!

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its coming Wesley...its coming

 

12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA384.g

 

 

 

when I go to Alan Huffman's site on the model link above and click on GFS or Euro ensembles, all that shows up are the 0Z runs

can someone post a link to GFS and Euro ensembles for Alan's site?

thanks

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This isn't 2011-12 or 2001-02...the cold is coming...may take until 15th-20th....the snow I'm not sure, but we need the cold 1st and we will get it

 

 

DCA's median snowfall to date is something under an inch still.  We've barely entered good climo.

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DCA's median snowfall to date is something under an inch still.  We've barely entered good climo.

 

exactly...lots of good/ok snow winters were basically snowless at this point....

 

anyway...18z GFS has 2 big storms in 14th-18th period....I think as Wes has brought up...do we get a proper storm track for the coastal plain or something that favors the western burbs again....probably the latter...I am guessing we may have to wait until February for a good I-95 event

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It's cold enough now. What do people want? Pipes to burst?

 

hopefully

 

This air mass is servicable with a good pattern.....but it would be nice to get some real cold again after the warm up....and I think we get it and perhaps for an extended period of time...I guess you could say I am bullish on cold, somewhat bearish on snow

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The funny thing about the SSW stuff is that it's a "maybe" at best. Last year we "needed" it to flip a ridiculous +AO and this year we "need" it to move cold air from Russia to here because we already have the -AO. LOL

 

I don't give a crap about the SSW to be honest because that's not the source or answer to our problem. December was killed by a -pna and crappy epo. Plain and simple. Everything else looked good on paper except for sensible wx in our yards.

 

So we ask ourselves....why did the the general trough out west set up shop? IMO- It has more to do with ENSO and the fact that we are coming out of a multi-year Nina than anything else. If I'm out to lunch then please correct me because I'm far from certain as to the whys.  Basically, this year is still a Nina but a little worse because history has proven that a neutral after cold or multi-year cold is really bad. IMO- the -pna was a bit predictable even if I didn't want to believe it. 

 

But on the flip side we have HL blocking. It's been there for a long time until recently. It just timed poorly with the neg pna. 

 

I kinda saw the same thing today that Wes alluded to about the ridge axis getting closer to more favorable later this month. It's starting to show already but it would be smart to add some days to the solutions. We know how that works out. And it's far from a sure thing. 

 

If I had to just throw out a wag it's going to sound pretty similar to Wes and zwyts. HL blocking relaxed but will return to a negative state before the end of the month. History has shown that pretty clearly. At least with the -ao anyways. It also looks like the next round of blocking is going to time with a better pac. Even with a flatter flow out west, getting the pv banging against a -nao can work wonders too. 

 

Until then, enjoy my avatar. lol

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euro weeklies now cold week 3 and 4 with PNA ridge ....go figure

 

Euro has had a habit of late of caving to the GFS in the long range so I'm not shocked

plus, right or wrong, the CFS2 is still hard core cold for the month of JAN

I can't figure why the weeklies jump around so much, but the monthly forecast for JAN remains well below normal

and why do I keep bringing up that [email protected] model? because it really did pretty good in NOV and very good in DEC

and if it shiatt the bed with its JAN forecast of cold for us, I'm going to send Wanqie Wang, the guy at the bottom of the site page who's apparently is in charge of the model, a nasty email to quit programming weather models and go back to taking pictures of parking lots!

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Prepare yourself. It gon bust.

 

I agree it looks like it will get cold after the warmup but the idea that the Euro is moving toward the GFS is a bit iffy to me. The GFS was showing temps 40 degrees below normal in the peak areas... good luck with that.

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Yes, I'm almost sure you would have seen a bit of snow on the overnight/morning of 12/31. That was a widespread snow to sleet to rain storm for the suburbs. We got 1" of snow/sleet before the switch just outside the Beltway in Montgomery County, MD.

 

Another measurable snow you could have gotten was a half-inch or so on 2/15.

 

And, 1/7-8 was a clipper 1-2" across the entire DC-Baltimore metro region, so I would be surprised if Front Royal missed out.

 

Remember the 2/15 event very well.  A couple brief wind-driven snow showers that produced nothing at all.

 

We did better on the Feb 9th-10th storm than you. The southern cutoff was just about the southern edge of Winchester. And Martinsburg did much better than us. I logged snow showers on Dec. 31st and Jan 20th. But I do not have any record of snow in March. Could be I was actually sick of the stuff by that point :)

 

 

You guys have forgotten the storm on Jan 20th of that year.  We were in the medium chance for 4+ from HPC.  We ended up with a mixture of sleet and snow for about an inch.  It was a pretty organized storm, just didn't have much cold to work with.

 

Actually it was Thurs. Jan 21 (that night)

 

Odds are that if you only got an inch at your location then FR may not have gotten anything measureable.  That clskins only recored snow showers at his location supports this claim.  I suspect that the NYE overunning event did not produce measureable snow at my location in town.  I would not have recorded a car-topper that year.... ah, those were the days...

 

The region-wide clipper on 1/7-8 is interesting.  I don't remember it, and can't believe I wouldn't have recorded an event with measureable snow.  I'll try to do some digging to see if I can find any record of snow at my location on that date.  Not sure how, but....

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Remember the 2/15 event very well. A couple brief wind-driven snow showers that produced nothing at all.

Odds are that if you only got an inch at your location then FR may not have gotten anything measureable. That clskins only recored snow showers at his location supports this claim. I suspect that the NYE overunning event did not produce measureable snow at my location in town. I would not have recorded a car-topper that year.... ah, those were the days...

The region-wide clipper on 1/7-8 is interesting. I don't remember it, and can't believe I wouldn't have recorded an event with measureable snow. I'll try to do some digging to see if I can find any record of snow at my location on that date. Not sure how, but....

Pretty sure the region wide clipper was in 2011. It was a Friday night into Saturday morning deal. Several of us were on here watching it progress across the region via traffic cams. Came through Winchester about 5am. More like a quick moving snow front. If this is the one I'm thinking of.

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Do you remember how much you got?

 

2.9" from 0.29" liquid at 31-32 degrees.  Nice snow for packing.

Just looked at my Cocorahs report.  Snow depth was 1" before the storm.

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2.9" from 0.29" liquid at 31-32 degrees. Nice snow for packing.

Just looked at my Cocorahs report. Snow depth was 1" before the storm.

Yes, I got about 2" that night. I had quite a bit more snow left though. If I ever get on the computer again, I have pics from that morning.

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