PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 you guys north and west were never a big concern--i told winterwxluvr to go to bed.. it was really just the 'transition zone'. it's nice to see snow but the sfc temps still suck considering the outcome. Well, accum is one thing, but several folks were talking about rain-snow mix or a change to rain. I think it was right in the end to dismiss those concerns. The soundings were marginal, but this is pretty near peak seasonal time to make it work and the airmass was decent with minimal winds. I think people over-think soundings or extrapolate based on reports from folks next to large bodies of water. It also doesn't help that our main forecasters here live next to the DC airport or on the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Precip type is fine, but surface temps are killing us. It is nice to see big fat flakes in the air, but they are melting as fast as they are accumulating. I won't be able to go above 0.2" with a straight face despite a couple of hours of decent rates. i was worried more about the former...perhaps more than i should have been...if we had started when we were "supposed" to surface would have been fine imo.....starting at 10am with mixed precip and fat wet light/mod flakes with <0.10" at 33-35 was an issue... I would have been more concerned about 33-34 at the surface if I knew we were getting a 90 minute event with no QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There wasn't enough moisture available that it would have made much, if any, difference. Well, yeah, that's the point. Had the snow hole not opened up over area we would have started as snow at 5 AM and this would all be gravy on top of 1-2 inches (less in the cities). Just goes to show we focused on the wrong bust factor for the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 well this was a snoozer. hope next week's cold helps us end this decent snow drought in dc and vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 you guys north and west were never a big concern--i told winterwxluvr to go to bed.. it was really just the 'transition zone'. it's nice to see snow but the sfc temps still suck considering the outcome. Yup. We've had a couple hours of pretty snow to watch, but zero accumulation to speak of (the best I've found is a bit of slush right above the windshield wipers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, accum is one thing, but several folks were talking about rain-snow mix or a change to rain. I think it was right in the end to dismiss those concerns. The soundings were marginal, but this is pretty near peak seasonal time to make it work and the airmass was decent with minimal winds. I think people over-think soundings or extrapolate based on reports from folks next to large bodies of water. It also doesn't help that our main forecasters here live next to the DC airport or on the Bay. I've been mixed all day. not pure snow so again it depends on where you live. Most of us thought you'd see snow and so would guys out towards Leesburg. Except for the timing, I think the storm was pretty well handled except for the 2-4 over Ian's house that someone forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Grass is starting to turn a hint of white tho it's still mostly melting faster than falling. We might eke out a 0.1-0.2 or so with this last bit. So did either BWi or IAd measure enough for the SPI to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 snow's just not staying consistent enough here to do it.. keeps weakening a bit on approach Back end kind of just collapsed on you. Bummer. I'm going to go back on what I said earlier, and record 0.4". I guess I was biased by looking out my back window instead of where I normally measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 should be a solid trashcan lid whitener Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I've been mixed all day. not pure snow so again it depends on where you live. Most of us thought you'd see snow and so would guys out towards Leesburg. Except for the timing, I think the storm was pretty well handled except for the 2-4 over Ian's house that someone forecast. All snow here in northeast Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 well this was a snoozer. hope next week's cold helps us end this decent snow drought in dc and vicinity. cold/dry, warm/wet Never forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, yeah, that's the point. Had the snow hole not opened up over area we would have started as snow at 5 AM and this would all be gravy on top of 1-2 inches (less in the cities). Just goes to show we focused on the wrong bust factor for the past few days. These are tricky "lessons" to carry forward though. It all depends on the handoff IMO. I was never really that worried about the column all that much even IMBY for some reason. If it's really close, as you note, this time of year will do it more often than not I think. I didn't see many models starting anything good before 12z here.. Even that might have been more marginal than we think given the potential bottom of temps based on the DP combo etc. It might have still started as rain before heavier came in so we would have still had wet ground to deal with. Maybe if it started at 4 it would have been better.. who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Back end kind of just collapsed on you. Bummer. I'm going to go back on what I said earlier, and record 0.4". I guess I was biased by looking out my back window instead of where I normally measure. I don't think I can really count anything other than a T. There was maybe 0.1" on cartops but that's a bit sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah, we spent a long time talking about temps but they have been mostly a non-issue. It wasn't like we were 60 before the storm like sometimes happens. It has been cold enough for the past week with a good sun angle situation. We probably should have been paying more attention to the dual-low structure sapping our precip. Some were talking about that, certainly (Bob Chill for one). It bugged me the entire time. I wanted to be wrong but having 2 relatively equal strength lows that close together and there is no way to avoid a "lift neutral zone" and that stupid zone set up right overhead to rob us the pre-dawn snow. That was the dagger of sorts. And weakening of one and strengthening of the other doesn't mean the coastal sucks all the energy and moisture from the dying low across our area either. They weaken and strengthen in their own space. I know you know this but many try to extrapolate radar in these scenarios and that's dangerous analysis. The weak spot in the middle (us) gets hosed no matter which way you slice it. I was bearish yesterday at least. It never looked like things would go our way. It is what it is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So did either BWi or IAd measure enough for the SPI to verify? Not sure. I'd have to guess IAD did looking at the surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I actually think the NAM did very well with this storm. I may have to stop bashing it so much. I still like the chances of something next week. The cold air is gonna be here and there and this map has the look of a decent over run event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nearly an inch on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 These are tricky "lessons" to carry forward though. It all depends on the handoff IMO. I was never really that worried about the column all that much even IMBY for some reason. If it's really close, as you note, this time of year will do it more often than not I think. I didn't see many models starting anything good before 12z here.. Even that might have been more marginal than we think given the potential bottom of temps based on the DP combo etc. It might have still started as rain before heavier came in so we would have still had wet ground to deal with. Maybe if it started at 4 it would have been better.. who knows. you can't start at 38 degrees for a 90 minute event during the day with rate dependent precip type....a longer event (6-8 hr) with an evolution, and peak and banding, 32-34 would have been servicable once you got through that 1st 60-90 minutes and got a coating down and got the temps down for a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 you can't start at 38 degrees for a 90 minute event during the day with rate dependent precip type....a longer event (6-8 hr) with an evolution, and peak and banding, 32-34 would have been servicable once you got through that 1st 60-90 minutes and got a coating down and got the temps down for a bit.... Right. I'm just not sure we would have gotten much lower than we did regardless. Who knows. I don't think anyone particularly nailed it even if outcomes match some thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 These are tricky "lessons" to carry forward though. It all depends on the handoff IMO. I was never really that worried about the column all that much even IMBY for some reason. If it's really close, as you note, this time of year will do it more often than not I think. I didn't see many models starting anything good before 12z here.. Even that might have been more marginal than we think given the potential bottom of temps based on the DP combo etc. It might have still started as rain before heavier came in so we would have still had wet ground to deal with. Maybe if it started at 4 it would have been better.. who knows. I don't think the models ever forecast the column to be warm just the layer from the surface to around 950mbs and for this event, they were pretty clsoe to being right. Heck at 7Am, my temp was 37 so I would certainly have started as rain or sleet before any changeover no unless the precipitation came in at 4Am or so as I was 32.4 at 11PM but was 37 by 7Am and 38 by 8. The lack of CAD made this a different animal than the last one though if we had gotten .30" maybe temps would have been cooler because of the lifting, but then they may have been warmer because of the stronger warm advection. I'm getting my last little snow burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0.17" for DCA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It bugged me the entire time. I wanted to be wrong but having 2 relatively equal strength lows that close together and there is no way to avoid a "lift neutral zone" and that stupid zone set up right overhead to rob us the pre-dawn snow. That was the dagger of sorts. And weakening of one and strengthening of the other doesn't mean the coastal sucks all the energy and moisture from the dying low across our area either. They weaken and strengthen in their own space. I know you know this but many try to extrapolate radar in these scenarios and that's dangerous analysis. The weak spot in the middle (us) gets hosed no matter which way you slice it. I was bearish yesterday at least. It never looked like things would go our way. It is what it is though. This was always a precip issue, for all but maybe those near sea level. That split line us up perfectly. If that ended up 50 miles further south, we'd have had precip much of the night. We ended up better than I thought we would here. Seems like anything gives us a decent snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Right. I'm just not sure we would have gotten much lower than we did regardless. Who knows. I don't think anyone particularly nailed it even if outcomes match some thoughts. no...but 32-34 is fine esp for an event with SN/+SN starting early and in late DEC..we have seen it a million times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't think the models ever forecast the column to be warm just the layer from the surface to around 950mbs and for this event, they were pretty clsoe to being right. Heck at 7Am, my temp was 37 so I would certainly have started as rain or sleet before any changeover no unless the precipitation came in at 4Am or so as I was 32.4 at 11PM but was 37 by 7Am and 38 by 8. The lack of CAD made this a different animal than the last one though if we had gotten .30" maybe temps would have been cooler because of the lifting, but then they may have been warmer because of the stronger warm advection. I'm getting my last little snow burst. a wet 8 hr event temps would have been fine in my opinion...we all would have woken up to accumulating snow...DCA got to 34/32 after being 40 at 9am....that doesn't work for a 2 hour daytime event...though I did get accumulation here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't think the models ever forecast the column to be warm just the layer from the surface to around 950mbs and for this event, they were pretty clsoe to being right. Heck at 7Am, my temp was 37 so I would certainly have started as rain or sleet before any changeover no unless the precipitation came in at 4Am or so as I was 32.4 at 11PM but was 37 by 7Am and 38 by 8. The lack of CAD made this a different animal than the last one though if we had gotten .30" maybe temps would have been cooler because of the lifting, but then they may have been warmer because of the stronger warm advection. I'm getting my last little snow burst. Yeah, I was sort of thinking about the lower levels though again I didn't seriously start looking till yesterday. And yeah I agree on the more precip angle.. may have ended up the same. As usual you rise among most of the pack for accum verification. But, these are good learning experiences for those with less knowledge.. Of course folks like Doug K are back patting but he was sort of wrong with how it came together it just ended up matching his forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This was always a precip issue, for all but maybe those near sea level. That split line us up perfectly. If that ended up 50 miles further south, we'd have had precip much of the night. We ended up better than I thought we would here. Seems like anything gives us a decent snow right now. Yea no doubt. The slot set up perfectly bad for dc metro on particular. That's why I was impressed with the rap and hrrr. Nam sniffed it well @ 0z and those others showed it well on various forms. I tossed the towel a bit around 2am. It became painfully obvious. You scored with the fringe of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DC is a horrible weather town. I need to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ummm, about .75 in, so i am about at 6 inches for the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DC is a horrible weather town. I need to move. Nah, all will be good when the snowderecho hits in late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Around 2 inches here and still falling at a moderate clip. No complaints considering last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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