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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread II

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BTV has been killing it with the discussions lately. Taber with some detail on this one. From what I've seen, I agree completely and actually think I'll half of what the west side gets. This has the look of a true eastern Champlain Valley/West Slope event.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON SAT

INTO SUNDAY WITH TWO PARTS...FIRST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC

LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF/VORT...THEN LEFTOVER DEEP

LAYER MOISTURE WL INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC

UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY

EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS. THE SYNOPTIC AND

MESOSCALE FEATURES WL TEAM UP TO PRODUCE A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL

EVENT ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHING ADVISORY

LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY. THIS EVENT WL FEATURE MUCH LESS

SNOWFALL/QPF...THEN YESTERDAYS STORM.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM ACRS EASTERN

CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CONUS.

MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS LOCATED ACRS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED ON LATEST IMAGE.

GIVEN LITTLE TROF AMPLIFICATION/FAST CONFLUENT FLW BEST

MOISTURE/UVVS FROM ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WL STAY SOUTH

OF OUR CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...OUR CWA WL BE IMPACTED BY POTENT 5H

VORT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RH IN MID/UPPER

LVL TROF AXIS...WHICH IS DEPICTED NICELY IN WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN.

BOTH NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND GEM ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TRACKING OPEN 5H/7H

S/W ENERGY ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN...ALONG WITH DEEP 850 TO 500 MB

RH. IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFTS

FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN...IN THE FAST FLW

ALOFT...WITH SOME ENHANCED UVVS BTWN 700 AND 500MB. GIVEN...THE

AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW BTWN 15Z AND 03Z

ON SAT/SUN...BUT FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLW WL LIMIT DURATION OF

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. QPF WL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAYS

EVENT...THINKING CWA AVERAGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WHICH WL RESULT

IN 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

SECOND PART: MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WL HELP IN THE

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW PRES NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON

SAT NIGHT. THIS WL QUICKLY RACE TWD NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY...BUT WL

HELP RE-ESTABLISH A DEEP CYCLONIC FLW ACRS OUR CWA. THIS NORTH TO

NORTHWEST FLW AROUND SFC LOW PRES WL PUSH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS

INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CREATING A FAVORABLE

OROGRAPHIC BLOCKED/UPSLOPE FLW. FROUDE NUMBER CALCULATIONS SHOW

VALUES BTWN 0.08 AND 0.25 BTWN 03Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH 330 TO 350

DEGREE FLW...AND 925M TO 850MB AVE TEMP AROUND -10C...SUGGESTING

FAVORABLE BLOCKED PARAMETERS FOR SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND

INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CPV. IN ADDITION...CAA BEHIND THIS

SYSTEM WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE ACRS THE

CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE

SFC TO 850MB WIND PROFILES...ALONG WITH GOOD DEEP RH IN THE

FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 18Z SAT THRU 12Z

SUNDAY...SUPPORTING LARGE/FLUFFY FLAKES AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS.

GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF FOR THIS MESOSCALE EVENT WL BE ACRS THE

NORTHERN DACKS...EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL

0.05 TO 0.15" OF QPF ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3

INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES.

THE BLOCKED FLW MAY LIMIT DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS

CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

BTWN BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SYSTEMS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES

SLV/WESTERN CPV/NEK AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR

THE NORTHERN DACKS/EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOCALIZED 6 TO 8

INCHES FROM NEAR JAY PEAK TO UNDERHILL TO RIPTON TO KILLINGTON.

ALSO...LOCAL BTV4 SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE CHAMPLAIN MOISTURE

ENHANCEMENT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...ANOTHER REASON

TO INCLUDE EASTERN CPV. SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE

GREEN MTNS. GIVEN EXPECTED SNOWFALL WL ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR

WESTERN SLOPES...EASTERN CPV AND NORTHERN DACKS FROM 15Z SAT UNTIL

18Z SUNDAY. THIS WL BE A FLUFFY TYPE SNOW...WITH SOME

BLOWING/DRIFTING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TRRN. EXPECT PRECIP TO

DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFT 18Z SUNDAY...AS

DRIER/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

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BTV has been killing it with the discussions lately. Taber with some detail on this one. From what I've seen, I agree completely and actually think I'll half of what the west side gets. This has the look of a true eastern Champlain Valley/West Slope event.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON SAT

INTO SUNDAY WITH TWO PARTS...FIRST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC

LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF/VORT...THEN LEFTOVER DEEP

LAYER MOISTURE WL INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC

UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY

EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS. THE SYNOPTIC AND

MESOSCALE FEATURES WL TEAM UP TO PRODUCE A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL

EVENT ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHING ADVISORY

LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY. THIS EVENT WL FEATURE MUCH LESS

SNOWFALL/QPF...THEN YESTERDAYS STORM.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM ACRS EASTERN

CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CONUS.

MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS LOCATED ACRS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED ON LATEST IMAGE.

GIVEN LITTLE TROF AMPLIFICATION/FAST CONFLUENT FLW BEST

MOISTURE/UVVS FROM ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WL STAY SOUTH

OF OUR CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...OUR CWA WL BE IMPACTED BY POTENT 5H

VORT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RH IN MID/UPPER

LVL TROF AXIS...WHICH IS DEPICTED NICELY IN WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN.

BOTH NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND GEM ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TRACKING OPEN 5H/7H

S/W ENERGY ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN...ALONG WITH DEEP 850 TO 500 MB

RH. IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFTS

FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN...IN THE FAST FLW

ALOFT...WITH SOME ENHANCED UVVS BTWN 700 AND 500MB. GIVEN...THE

AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW BTWN 15Z AND 03Z

ON SAT/SUN...BUT FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLW WL LIMIT DURATION OF

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. QPF WL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAYS

EVENT...THINKING CWA AVERAGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WHICH WL RESULT

IN 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

SECOND PART: MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WL HELP IN THE

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW PRES NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON

SAT NIGHT. THIS WL QUICKLY RACE TWD NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY...BUT WL

HELP RE-ESTABLISH A DEEP CYCLONIC FLW ACRS OUR CWA. THIS NORTH TO

NORTHWEST FLW AROUND SFC LOW PRES WL PUSH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS

INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CREATING A FAVORABLE

OROGRAPHIC BLOCKED/UPSLOPE FLW. FROUDE NUMBER CALCULATIONS SHOW

VALUES BTWN 0.08 AND 0.25 BTWN 03Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH 330 TO 350

DEGREE FLW...AND 925M TO 850MB AVE TEMP AROUND -10C...SUGGESTING

FAVORABLE BLOCKED PARAMETERS FOR SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND

INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CPV. IN ADDITION...CAA BEHIND THIS

SYSTEM WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE ACRS THE

CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE

SFC TO 850MB WIND PROFILES...ALONG WITH GOOD DEEP RH IN THE

FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 18Z SAT THRU 12Z

SUNDAY...SUPPORTING LARGE/FLUFFY FLAKES AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS.

GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF FOR THIS MESOSCALE EVENT WL BE ACRS THE

NORTHERN DACKS...EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL

0.05 TO 0.15" OF QPF ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3

INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES.

THE BLOCKED FLW MAY LIMIT DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS

CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

BTWN BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SYSTEMS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES

SLV/WESTERN CPV/NEK AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR

THE NORTHERN DACKS/EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOCALIZED 6 TO 8

INCHES FROM NEAR JAY PEAK TO UNDERHILL TO RIPTON TO KILLINGTON.

ALSO...LOCAL BTV4 SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE CHAMPLAIN MOISTURE

ENHANCEMENT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...ANOTHER REASON

TO INCLUDE EASTERN CPV. SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE

GREEN MTNS. GIVEN EXPECTED SNOWFALL WL ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR

WESTERN SLOPES...EASTERN CPV AND NORTHERN DACKS FROM 15Z SAT UNTIL

18Z SUNDAY. THIS WL BE A FLUFFY TYPE SNOW...WITH SOME

BLOWING/DRIFTING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TRRN. EXPECT PRECIP TO

DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFT 18Z SUNDAY...AS

DRIER/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

That is a great discussion. YOu can see that mid level capping inversion too if you look at the time/height. Certainly feels like a western slopes favoring event. Though anytime there is a NW wind it's hard to judgewhat happens in the upper above treeline terrain. Once you get that snow to move it's going to be deposited somewhere. ...and that is likely the upper eastern slopes of mansfield.

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Unreal PF haha. Enjoy. Thinking west slope enhancement....maybe 6-10".

Should be a solid 2-4" for the NEK.

Yeah I agree with you... these events with arctic air moving in tend to be west side and even Champlain Valley events. Winds look to be more northerly, too, which aids those areas, but not here. The east side needs a more westerly component to get enough momentum to push the snow over the Spine. NNW often just doesn't have the juice to really spill over.

I like about 3-4" here at my place, though the ski resort could double that on the Spine.

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Cool

MEZ020-291000-

ANDROSCOGGIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS

257 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.

COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 9 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A

50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. TOTAL

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 19.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN

PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW

50 PERCENT.

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Cool

MEZ020-291000-

ANDROSCOGGIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS

257 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.

COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 9 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A

50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. TOTAL

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 19.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN

PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW

50 PERCENT.

Enjoy! One zone north, no accum mentioned and merely "chance" (though high chance - 50%) of snow. Trend is our friend, though.

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4 ENE Meredith 3.6 305 am 12/28

Lakeport 3.0 700 am 12/28

8 E Laconia 2.8 830 am 12/27

3 SSW Meredith 2.5 650 am 12/28

This area was on the line between 10-14 and 14-18... I can't remember the last time we came up that short.

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After tomorrow night, Cold and dry with a few clippa shots over the next 10 days or so

That's OK, I like classic cold winter weather with small shorts of snow here and there.

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After tomorrow night, Cold and dry with a few clippa shots over the next 10 days or so

Yeah we'll clean up relatively speaking from clippers and arctic FROPAs.

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with that in the books, you're now on track to for average december at your spot, then?

Absolutely, we could even end up above average. Thanks to this last storm, the snowfall total for the month is 40.7” (from 5.95” of liquid). Since the mean December snowfall here is 41.6”, we should easily be getting there if the forecast is correct (2-5” through tomorrow night). The point and click actually looks reasonably snowy right through the New Year:

28DEC12A.jpg

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Everything is so much nicer with a thick coating of snow across the landscape.

And there's nothing more classic than cars sporting a thick mushroom cap of snow. Of course this one is from NJ ;) Out of state plates outnumber our green VT plates like 4:1 this week. Its tourist week from Xmas to New Year's... every lodging is sold out and this has easily been the busiest Xmas week so far in the 5 years I've worked at the ski resort. Well timed 5 feet of snow in 12 days at the ski resort will do that. And that's not even that much considering Sugarbush is now up to 80 inches in the past 2 weeks. That's nuts!

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Hey cpick, VTC used to have a hill with a rope tow, you ought to see if you can get them to fire that up for you to take a few turns!

lol guess what!? We drove over to that hill at 11am and 5 of us had tubes and hiked up the hill. We took about 5 runs on the tubes (after we establised a path). Was a great time. My friends dad who is the prez says they will likely turn the toerope on for weekends for skiers/snowboarders.

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I think the mrv is seeing an increase in tourists too this week. There were cars parked in a lot i had never seen used before and the vehicular traffic into waitsfield was heavy.

This morning was a little weird with the freezing mist to start off the day. Didnt seem to effect the snow though. Excellent riding. Plenty of snow in them there hills.

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My only b**ch-point is that it's an overnight event. Thinking between 2 and 3 for my 'hood. Pretty kickass weather week.

lol, you're not allowed to b*tch ;) you didn't get 2sadinches only to be washed away by 40's and torrential rain...

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After tomorrow night, Cold and dry with a few clippa shots over the next 10 days or so

I can deal with that considering that I'm down both my plow truck and my snowblower. The old tractor (with a plow) is the last arrow in my quiver until I get the others fixed--driveway's 1800' long, narrow and a bit steep. Not a small task. :axe:

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lol guess what!? We drove over to that hill at 11am and 5 of us had tubes and hiked up the hill. We took about 5 runs on the tubes (after we establised a path). Was a great time. My friends dad who is the prez says they will likely turn the toerope on for weekends for skiers/snowboarders.

Just up the road in Northfield, Norwich University used to have a full blown chair lift right on campus. Every once in a while you hear a rumor about them reopening it but they would need to do quite a bit of work to get the trails back. Glad you had a good time in my old stomping grounds. I used ride by VTC everyday on my way to high school. That ridge gets some hellacious winds in winter. There were many days the school bus would be drift busting on the way to school.

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I can deal with that considering that I'm down both my plow truck and my snowblower. The old tractor (with a plow) is the last arrow in my quiver until I get the others fixed--driveway's 1800' long, narrow and a bit steep. Not a small task. :axe:

That sucks. I was bumming thinking I was going to have to shovel my 30' driveway! Well I guess as snow junkies there could be worse problems.

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True story. :)

Congrats on 6+

BTW, decided on Pierce and Eisenhower for tomorrow. Cloudy probably but light winds.

easy there lone ranger...i'll prob max out at 4inches

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Beautiful night out. Bright moon reflecting off the new snow. You can almost read outside. 14F

14° here as well. I even turned off the one outside light I keep on at night over the garage...not needed tonight!

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