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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread II

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I just checked our updated point forecast for this morning and the BTV NWS has us under a Winter Weather Advisory with 4 to 8 inches expected through tomorrow; it looks like some of that is due to potential upslope snow.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MODEST SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG VORT OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ALL SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED 700MB LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ALREADY PRODUCING A HEAVY AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WILL BRING A MODEST LIGHT SNOW EVENT TO THE NORTH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING HEAVY AT TIME THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ABOUT 0.10-0.15"...AND THINK WE`LL SEE GENERAL SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 1-3" RANGE THROUGH 00Z.

COASTAL LOW LOCATED AROUND THE BENCHMARK AT 00Z CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT CONTINUING TO FEED RICH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST CREATING A SHORT PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC BLOCKED/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. FROUDE NUMBER CALCULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW BLOCKED FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z WITH LOCAL 4KM WRF MODEL SHOWING FAVORABLE 925-875MB NW FLOW AND TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR -10C. FEEL THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOWS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THUS...ALL PREVIOUS ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT HAVE HOISTED ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN ADDISON...EASTERN RUTLAND...ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE BY 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREAS.

Most areas in the state outside of the Champlain Valley and the far NEK are under the advisory at this point:

29DEC12A.jpg

29DEC12B.jpg

Looks like precipitation is building in from the southwest and should be getting to Northern Vermont within a few hours:

29DEC12A.gif

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That sucks. I was bumming thinking I was going to have to shovel my 30' driveway! Well I guess as snow junkies there could be worse problems.

Yeah, these sorts of things seem to happen in bunches. Forgot to mention that I also have the flu. Piece of advice to everyone: don't get it, it's a f*cking som'b1tch. I've been a shell of my normal self for a week now. Guess I should've gotten a flu shot. Something I've never done, but will consider next year.

Anyhoo, I see they've expanded the WWAs. OK!

And yeah, the past two nights have been amazing. Those kind of nights where headlights might be optional. ;)

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I hadn’t gotten around to checking on Vermont ski area snow totals from the last storm, but I figured I’d better get around to it this morning since the next storm is coming in. I’ve used a combination of 72-hour accumulations for areas that report those, storm totals if they indicated that in their snow report text, or Ski Vermont numbers (sometimes funky, but jiving well with most resort websites) to fill in the rest. The north to south listing of totals is below; I’d say the storm was generally in the 18-20” range up and down the state, with a couple standouts like Sugarbush and Jay Peak, and a couple lower values like Burke and Mount Snow.

Jay Peak: 28”

Burke: 11”

Smuggler’s Notch: 18”

Stowe: 17”

Bolton Valley: 16”

Mad River Glen: 20”

Sugarbush: 26”

Middlebury: 20”

Pico: 18”

Killington: 18”

Okemo: 15”

Bromley: 18”

Magic Mountain: 16”

Stratton: 20”

Mount Snow: 10”

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I can deal with that considering that I'm down both my plow truck and my snowblower. The old tractor (with a plow) is the last arrow in my quiver until I get the others fixed--driveway's 1800' long, narrow and a bit steep. Not a small task. :axe:

Yikes, That sucks dude, You can use the break to get repairs done

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Just up the road in Northfield, Norwich University used to have a full blown chair lift right on campus. Every once in a while you hear a rumor about them reopening it but they would need to do quite a bit of work to get the trails back. Glad you had a good time in my old stomping grounds. I used ride by VTC everyday on my way to high school. That ridge gets some hellacious winds in winter. There were many days the school bus would be drift busting on the way to school.

There has been a bunch of trail work done there recently. It's a mt bike park now! From what I've seen the downhill looks fantastic. No clue on the skiability,,,

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MBY squeaks into the 2-4" area on GYX snow map, with 1-2" just 15 miles to the north. 06z gfs had 0.3"-0.4" qpf for the general area. All of the above much better than last night's forecast.

Need 4.5" to reach 30 for Dec; that's my criterion for a "big snow" month. Happens about once/yr - in 14 winters we've hit the 30" mark 5 times in Feb, 3 each for Dec and Mar, and in April 2007; most recent is Feb 2011. Oddly, never in January. I think we fall about 2" short this month.

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BTV has been killing it with the discussions lately. Taber with some detail on this one. From what I've seen, I agree completely and actually think I'll half of what the west side gets. This has the look of a true eastern Champlain Valley/West Slope event.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON SAT

INTO SUNDAY WITH TWO PARTS...FIRST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC

LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF/VORT...THEN LEFTOVER DEEP

LAYER MOISTURE WL INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC

UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY

EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS. THE SYNOPTIC AND

MESOSCALE FEATURES WL TEAM UP TO PRODUCE A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL

EVENT ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHING ADVISORY

LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY. THIS EVENT WL FEATURE MUCH LESS

SNOWFALL/QPF...THEN YESTERDAYS STORM.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM ACRS EASTERN

CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CONUS.

MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS LOCATED ACRS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED ON LATEST IMAGE.

GIVEN LITTLE TROF AMPLIFICATION/FAST CONFLUENT FLW BEST

MOISTURE/UVVS FROM ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WL STAY SOUTH

OF OUR CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...OUR CWA WL BE IMPACTED BY POTENT 5H

VORT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RH IN MID/UPPER

LVL TROF AXIS...WHICH IS DEPICTED NICELY IN WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN.

BOTH NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND GEM ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TRACKING OPEN 5H/7H

S/W ENERGY ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN...ALONG WITH DEEP 850 TO 500 MB

RH. IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFTS

FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN...IN THE FAST FLW

ALOFT...WITH SOME ENHANCED UVVS BTWN 700 AND 500MB. GIVEN...THE

AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW BTWN 15Z AND 03Z

ON SAT/SUN...BUT FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLW WL LIMIT DURATION OF

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. QPF WL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAYS

EVENT...THINKING CWA AVERAGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WHICH WL RESULT

IN 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

SECOND PART: MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WL HELP IN THE

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW PRES NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON

SAT NIGHT. THIS WL QUICKLY RACE TWD NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY...BUT WL

HELP RE-ESTABLISH A DEEP CYCLONIC FLW ACRS OUR CWA. THIS NORTH TO

NORTHWEST FLW AROUND SFC LOW PRES WL PUSH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS

INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CREATING A FAVORABLE

OROGRAPHIC BLOCKED/UPSLOPE FLW. FROUDE NUMBER CALCULATIONS SHOW

VALUES BTWN 0.08 AND 0.25 BTWN 03Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH 330 TO 350

DEGREE FLW...AND 925M TO 850MB AVE TEMP AROUND -10C...SUGGESTING

FAVORABLE BLOCKED PARAMETERS FOR SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND

INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CPV. IN ADDITION...CAA BEHIND THIS

SYSTEM WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE ACRS THE

CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE

SFC TO 850MB WIND PROFILES...ALONG WITH GOOD DEEP RH IN THE

FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 18Z SAT THRU 12Z

SUNDAY...SUPPORTING LARGE/FLUFFY FLAKES AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS.

GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF FOR THIS MESOSCALE EVENT WL BE ACRS THE

NORTHERN DACKS...EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES...WITH ADDITIONAL

0.05 TO 0.15" OF QPF ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3

INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES.

THE BLOCKED FLW MAY LIMIT DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS

CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

BTWN BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SYSTEMS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES

SLV/WESTERN CPV/NEK AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR

THE NORTHERN DACKS/EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES WITH LOCALIZED 6 TO 8

INCHES FROM NEAR JAY PEAK TO UNDERHILL TO RIPTON TO KILLINGTON.

ALSO...LOCAL BTV4 SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE CHAMPLAIN MOISTURE

ENHANCEMENT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...ANOTHER REASON

TO INCLUDE EASTERN CPV. SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE

GREEN MTNS. GIVEN EXPECTED SNOWFALL WL ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR

WESTERN SLOPES...EASTERN CPV AND NORTHERN DACKS FROM 15Z SAT UNTIL

18Z SUNDAY. THIS WL BE A FLUFFY TYPE SNOW...WITH SOME

BLOWING/DRIFTING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TRRN. EXPECT PRECIP TO

DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFT 18Z SUNDAY...AS

DRIER/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

Froude/Upslope snow study!

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Weenie flakes have begun in Williston.

Thanks for the heads up eyewall, it made me take a look outside and snow has started here in Waterbury as well - probably started at 10:45 A.M. or so.

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Love how the models are trending. Winter Storm Warning here on the mid coast.

.LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY

AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...STAYING JUST OUT

TO SEA. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS MOVED A BIT

WESTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS WESTWARD BUMP SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINTER

STORM CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND AN INCREASE IN

SNOWFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM

WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...WITH THE MOST SNOW

EXPECTED ALONG THE MID COAST OF MAINE. THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS WELL.

DEPENDING ON ANY FURTHER TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE

WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND.

Some love mentioned for the mid coast!

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These NWS guys know where the fun is at...unfortunately the snow growth region sounds to be too high, we are getting that mixture of freezing fog/mist on Mansfield. Riming things up quickly, but can lead to some visibility issues on the higher terrain due to goggle freezing fog/mist. Not affecting snow surfaces though.

Yeah, it looked nice and no issues affecting the skiing – passing along a picture I got of the rime yesterday up in the Bolton Valley Village:

28DEC12M.jpg

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I had an itching to go above treeline, and with winds forecast to be light I decided to hike Mt Pierce and Mt Eisenhower. The path to Pierce's summit was broken in nicely and the views from up top were stellar - 100-mile views. 20° with 1 mph "wind" - it doesn't get better than that.

post-254-0-95069900-1356804012_thumb.jpg

The path over to Eisenhower, however, was not broken in. There was no sign of life anywhere and the cairns were covered in snow. I had to resort to heading to gaps in trees to find the trail. Drifts in the cols were remarkable - over 6' in spots.

post-254-0-22218600-1356804035_thumb.jpg

As I mentioned, visibility was superb. I could see over to Freaks 'hood in VT. Pretty sure the snow-capped peak I saw on the horizon was the infamous Mansfield. Conditions atop Eisenhower were 20° and winds at 10mph for a windchill of 6°. Not shabby for end of December. This last pic shows Mt Pierce.

Sitting in North Conway now, watching snow fall. No idea what the latest modeling shows for this storm ... time to read about it!

post-254-0-30526900-1356804061_thumb.jpg

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Thanks for the heads up eyewall, it made me take a look outside and snow has started here in Waterbury as well - probably started at 10:45 A.M. or so.

A 1:00 P.M. check on the snowboard revealed 0.9” of snow, so it’s coming down at a little under ½” per hour – flakes are relatively small in the 1-2 mm diameter range.

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Headed up this afternoon for some runs - indeed it was interesting having the funky wind direction - I'd say I actually noticed it most in the lack of wind scouring in many spots. I'll send along an update in a bit.

Not surprisingly, the skiing is great right now, so it’s hard keeping up online, but I wanted to pass along a couple of updates and pictures as I’ve been meaning to do. The first is from Thursday, and the second is from Friday, both at Bolton Valley. Full updates can be found by clicking on each day.

27DEC12A.jpg

28DEC12E.jpg

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Yeah, it looked nice and no issues affecting the skiing – passing along a picture I got of the rime yesterday...

got lucky with some blue skies at the end of the day yesterday. the rime made for some dramatic color. fun climb, could watch the rime descend from the tips at 2500' to the whole tree above 3200'. sometimes the blue skies in winter don't even seem possible on the color spectrum.

IMG_3207.jpg

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As I mentioned, visibility was superb. I could see over to Freaks 'hood in VT. Pretty sure the snow-capped peak I saw on the horizon was the infamous Mansfield. Conditions atop Eisenhower were 20° and winds at 10mph for a windchill of 6°. Not shabby for end of December. This last pic shows Mt Pierce.

I've got some photos coming... could definitely see you above the clouds over there in NH. What an awesome inversion layer this morning. There were high level clouds but quite the scene above 2,500ft.

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got lucky with some blue skies at the end of the day yesterday. the rime made for some dramatic color. fun climb, could watch the rime descend from the tips at 2500' to the whole tree above 3200'. sometimes the blue skies in winter don't even seem possible on the color spectrum.

Awesome photo!

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