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The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

WilkesboroDude

By WilkesboroDude,
in Southeastern States

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

I know that I know what it is, I can unequivocally admit that I am full of bollocks myself from time to time ;) Apparently, burgertime thinks I'm briarcreekwx and/or snow89 which I assume is who you were referring to earlier. I take it they must have been some infamous poster from years gone by?

Wilkesbradud is who they are refering to, he was the eye sore that started this thread 9 months ago and enlightened us with his theory on cloud healing on a regular basis.

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MADDOGG

MADDOGG

Posted
Posted

 

Who might I be? I must say, I don't know what I have done to cause such a stir. I thought this was the 2013-14 winter outlook thread , so shoot me for talking weather and offering up a discussion.

 

I have no clue what bollocks means, but I think both of you may be full of it (or them?). 

 

welcome, don't take it to heart they just need to warm up to yea :) cheesy comments run amuck this time of year. kinda like christmas day with the family you never know what to expect, but i assure you a mess will arise!

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Just to add to the conversation I thought the bigger problem was lack of a combined +PNA and -NAO...it seemed like we would always have one without the other. Doesn't a -PNA effect the flow from the Pacific or am I just talking out of my arse? 

Hi  :hug: 

No...you are not talking out of your arse  :P  

I wasn't going to say anything yet...but there's no denying that the thought crossed my mind.

This made me :lol: 

 

I see you've already updated your signature back to the NO BOLLOCKS zone.  Well done.

 

 

Welcome back, Burger!  I know you've peaked in once in a while over the summer, but it's about time for AmericanWX to become part of your daily routine again, isn't it? 

 

 

Welcome to the party, 1300m!  The SE subforum is a great place to hang during the winter months (and all year round, for that matter).  We have our tussles from time to time, but it's nothing like the nightmares that develop in the MA and NE subforums, and that's saying nothing for the PR (political roundtable) forum (all bets are off in there).  I hope you'll find this place to your liking.

 

And, yes, this whole post is mostly banter, Buckeye.  My apologies for cluttering up the thread.  I just found all the people I wanted to respond to already posting in here.

I'm adding to the clutter for those exact same reasons :lol:   :ph34r:

 

,,Or the jinx that prevents such opportunities. :snowing:  :hug:

As long as you don't ban yourself again all will be right with the se crew  :wub: 

 

 

 

 

Welcome to the se forum 1300m :D  Here you will find the best amwx has to offer.....the se crew  ^_^

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Just to add to the conversation I thought the bigger problem was lack of a combined +PNA and -NAO...it seemed like we would always have one without the other. Doesn't a -PNA effect the flow from the Pacific or am I just talking out of my arse? 

Hey, Burger, nice to see you and Bevo :)

  Here in Ga. it was lack of rain that was the problem.  We had two events, if I'm remembering rightly, north of Atl., but not enough precip to have them amount to much.  Ever and always it's about moisture and timing.  I had a period of sleet and snow early on, but it was momentary due to no moisture..the system was in Fla and just grazed me on the northern edge..it was cold enough, even in a hot winter.  Happens all the time down here, lol.  It's the timing that counts and what the Pac. or the Atlantic is doing means less than what the timing is doing :)  It gets cold enough every winter, and it rains every winter.  It's getting those to line up that's the trick, and I doubt the Atl, or the Pac. give a damn about timing in Georgia, lol. They may make the signs propitious, but they don't create the happy dance, at least around here. Lord knows I've seen enough perfect Pacs. and Atlantics that gave me squat, but then Ga. gets relative squat no matter what the oceans are doing, lol.  A low comes up into a cold cad, and sleet breaks out, and I'm about the do the happy dance, and the waa wins and another night of cold rain, no matter if the oceans are great, or poor, lol.  But every year there's a chance, or two, and occasionally a hit.  Sure Larry has stats saying this and that help, and climo way ups the odds for sure,  but there are always outliers, and that's timing, so I think it's mostly timing, and moisture, at work in winter around here, when it's usually sort of cold. And it didn't matter if the Canadians, or the Alaskan's were freezing or sweating. T

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Hey, Burger, nice to see you and Bevo :)

  Here in Ga. it was lack of rain that was the problem.  We had two events, if I'm remembering rightly, north of Atl., but not enough precip to have them amount to much.  Ever and always it's about moisture and timing.  I had a period of sleet and snow early on, but it was momentary due to no moisture..the system was in Fla and just grazed me on the northern edge..it was cold enough, even in a hot winter.  Happens all the time down here, lol.  It's the timing that counts and what the Pac. or the Atlantic is doing means less than what the timing is doing :)  It gets cold enough every winter, and it rains every winter.  It's getting those to line up that's the trick, and I doubt the Atl, or the Pac. give a damn about timing in Georgia, lol. They may make the signs propitious, but they don't create the happy dance, at least around here. Lord knows I've seen enough perfect Pacs. and Atlantics that gave me squat, but then Ga. gets relative squat no matter what the oceans are doing, lol.  A low comes up into a cold cad, and sleet breaks out, and I'm about the do the happy dance, and the waa wins and another night of cold rain, no matter if the oceans are great, or poor, lol.  But every year there's a chance, or two, and occasionally a hit.  Sure Larry has stats saying this and that help, and climo way ups the odds for sure,  but there are always outliers, and that's timing, so I think it's mostly timing, and moisture, at work in winter around here, when it's usually sort of cold. And it didn't matter if the Canadians, or the Alaskan's were freezing or sweating. T

 

True that, many of us in NC/SC got on the lucky side of timing with that 2 hour burst of heavy snow which made the winter somewhat bearable last year. 

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

So bad, bad, and I dunno, kinda bad?

 

I think we may be able to squeak out a halfway decent winter with a -pdo as long as enso would remain = to + But the chances of that happening is plausible.

 

But over the last week and month something really I've noticed is the fact enso doesnt really appear to be to neutral. Not arguing with the fact of actual data. I just hope the trend of cooler water showing wanes and maybe as time progresses even seeing warming. Really at this point in time could swing both ways with el nino or la nina conditions over the next couple of months in my eyes.

 

 

But I guess the positive aspect of this year compare to last couple years no deep alaskan vortex and extremely strong -enso as we enter into winter. The fact of a stronger ridge being present by sst in the pacific this year. Another thing Im unsure about is the role of the  central and eastern atlantic... its alot warmer this year as well.

 

2011

anomnight.10.13.2011.gif

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

A really interesting blocking pattern looks to be setting up in the next couple of weeks.  Let's hope it continues on into the winter season.

 

Seeing the overall pattern that's being depicted by the GFS, one would think that the PDO region will warm quickly. Strong southerly winds are being modeled to continue for a while. If this is the winter pattern showing its hand, then we are in for a cold one. Still a little too early right now, but if it is the dominant pattern through November then watch out. Snow cover anomalies look good and the solar aspect has to be considered. The one thing that troubles me is Enso. It's too late for a weak Nino, but we may be able to squeak out a neutral positive. My gut tells me that we will have a cold Dec followed by a normal Jan to Feb. That's just my initial thoughts.

 

Edit: Just read an interesting post on the main forum about how the Western Pac tropical cyclone could bring about a favorable Pacific pattern heading into winter. Good read.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Siberian snow coverage looking nice. The long range GFS would have Canada catch-up during the next couple of weeks.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Yep both the GFS and the Euro look good for Canada for snow developing. I have a lot better feeling about the upcoming winter than the past couple we have had. The main thing that Wow had mentioned is the blocking that has developed and not just a little blocking but very impressive blocking that looks to take place. All good signs pointing towards the winter months.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

The Siberian connection worked out ok last year - the AO was negative for a majority of the winter, and March was actually the 5th most negative month ever recorded for the AO.

 

In regards to the hurricane season I'm not sure, I'd imagine any connection would largely be tied to ENSO, and I'd actually think that more activity (which is typical in a La Nina regime) would result in warmer and drier winters in the southeast and vice versa.

 

 

Now that I know what it is, I can unequivocally admit that I am full of bollocks myself from time to time ;) Apparently, burgertime thinks I'm briarcreekwx and/or snow89 which I assume is who you were referring to earlier. I take it they must have been some infamous poster from years gone by?

Nice your a meteorologist! Sweet always good to have more red tags posting from the SE.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

I'm kind of surprised that no one mentioned the Accuweather forecast of doom.  According to their algorithms (whatever those are) the SE is in for a mild winter.  I wonder if they have any predictive power.

 

It has been posted already, but their track record has been less than stellar. Therefore, nobody gave it much weight.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

It has been posted already, but their track record has been less than stellar. Therefore, nobody gave it much weight.

 

There have been many, many weightless long range forecasts the past 2 years.  Lets face it, until we get a cold snowy winter, 80% of the forecast from folks on this board will bust.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

I seen thier map and if I wouldn't know anybetter I'd say they're forecasting a winter similar to 11-12 with a very strong -enso -pdo along with a deep GOA lp.  But in all likely hood accuweather did the paper note and hat trick. What ever cute picture was pulled out the hat became the sponsored accuweather winter forecast.

It has been posted already, but their track record has been less than stellar. Therefore, nobody gave it much weight.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

There have been many, many weightless long range forecasts the past 2 years. Lets face it, until we get a cold snowy winter, 80% of the forecast from folks on this board will bust.

Yeah most of them will bust if we don't get a cold and snowy winter. Not sure why most forecast a cold and snowy winter every year. Rarely see anyone pointing out the negatives for winter weather, just positive. Then you have some who always point out the negatives. I think I might be one of those. You guys called me a Negative Nancy last winter.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah most of them will bust if we don't get a cold and snowy winter. Not sure why most forecast a cold and snowy winter every year. Rarely see anyone pointing out the negatives for winter weather, just positive. Then you have some who always point out the negatives. I think I might be one of those. You guys called me a Negative Nancy last winter.

One of the more accurate forecasts of the year, if memory serves. :)

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IWC

IWC

Posted
Posted

Well Folks,It is getting to be that time of year I come in and lurk to see what the season will bring. I guess I'm not as excited this year and taking a wait and see approach. Glad to see everyone is still here. Wilks I'm glad to see the dismissed you from the gatherings. You were annoying to say the least. But the healing should be over and the clouds are ready to produce. 

 

See you all thru out the winter.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

I guess I'm just not as put off by WilkesboroDude as some of the rest of you.  I'd be for giving him a second chance (or is it third or fourth?), if he even wanted it.  He's a young kid.  He said some stupid stuff.  Haven't we all?  He's passionate about the weather.  Isn't that why we're all here?  He's got some dumb theories.  So do other people.  I'm glad I've been given second chances in life.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

I guess I'm just not as put off by WilkesboroDude as some of the rest of you. I'd be for giving him a second chance (or is it third or fourth?), if he even wanted it. He's a young kid. He said some stupid stuff. Haven't we all? He's passionate about the weather. Isn't that why we're all here? He's got some dumb theories. So do other people. I'm glad I've been given second chances in life.

He had something against Robert. Lol I don't know what, but he always said something smart whenever Robert posted or something about his website. That's why he was banned in the may 2013 pattern and discussion thread. Other then that, he was ok. Then you guys tried to get rid of me the next day.
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