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WilkesboroDude

The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

426 posts in this topic

Let's get those early thoughts a rolling...(this thread does not mean the current winter will fail by any means).

Also rant here if you feel inclined to move on from the current winter to the next one...to help keep the sour posts out of the good discussion threads.

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I think they even suffered last winter...time to move up in elevation in NC. There will be places with more snow from just Hurricane Sandy in NC than my total for the winter.

Old obviously...but still a forecast he made.

AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.

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I do hate to admit it but I have a uncomfortable gut feeling the 16 to 34 inches of snow that fell from Hurricane Sandy will end up being the highest snowfall single event of this winter season (2012-2013). Hope I am wrong ! !

For the record, the 34 inch totals from Sandy were on Roan Mountain and Mount Leconte. Beech Mountain got 22 inches

=

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Winter starts December 21 and we already looking at next year, lol!!

For the most people on this forum winter starts December 1st. This is supposed to be a science forum and met winter is December - February.

I'm going with a 50 / 50 shot landing either warmer or cooler than average.

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Lol, I have to keep reminding myself that many here are much younger than me, and haven't experienced the mind twisting disasters that winter in the south often uses to break us down, and destroy all hope. And hope is really all we have, as models can only predict timing out a few days, at best, unless they get blind squirrel lucky. Last winter I held out hope until April 1st. not because of science, or deduction, but because I've seen things through the years that defy explaination to the mostly unscientific, like me. Deep snow in a warm spring, after endless bitter cold days without a drop of rain A blizzard in Ga. A freakin' blizzard in March...in Ga. IN GA!! All the long range or short range modeling and deduction can't nail every blip in the matrix. After a few years of heart break you just have to either go nuts, move, or wait to see what will happen. And hope for the best, lol. And if it helps to look at the goofy end of the GFS, and try to deduce patterns, then I think it is fine for us more left brained whack doodles...I know it helps me stay sane, even though I know it is a bunch of blind squirrels scrabbling about...and it's because I never had it before :)

When I was a kid all I had was a few minutes of tv happy talk weather for a model, and if there was a criptic mention of "rain, and 32" at the end of the five day, all I had was my fantasy deductions that it could mean sleet or snow chances...maybe.... and I would hope and hope :) And if Bob, for example, scoffs at my GFS delusions, as I know he is not a fan of the long, long range, I'm fine with that, because I know he and I share a favorite sleet storm, and that's a stronger bond than any discussion over the merits of long range models.... and, I also know when he or Cheez start to honk a storm, it's time to perk up, because I'm no longer stuck with a few minutes of happy talk tv, but have at my disposal scientific models and folks who know how to read them, and who know what they can or can't do :) I am today blessed with a fountain of knowledge at my finger tips, and knowledgable people galore...but I also have learned thru many hard winter times....you just have to wait and see what happens, lol. T

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I'm thinking that this winter may be cooler than last year and much drier. Parts of NC may see their driest November on record! sad.png

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Nice.. This thread was created earlier than the 2012-13 winter last year. At least it was only a weej from the start of winter when that one was created. It was only November when this one was created. LOL. Warmest Winter ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Well we know one thing. If there are early snows in the east (late October or so) we are screwe

Spot on! If weexpierence another east coast high magnitude October Snow like the past 2 years, Then I'll be putting the nail in the coffins for winter before it even starts.

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I'm pretty confident now that it will be winter of 2015-16 before KRDU receives another 6" snowstorm. Of course I'm wishcasting based on the long range BCW ensembles, but I really believe all the cliff divers for January 2016 will come around, in time.

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Well I said this winter couldn't be worse than the last and it was pretty close. Both were absolutely horrid. With this in mind I won't even begin to speculate about next year.

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Well I said this winter couldn't be worse than the last and it was pretty close. Both were absolutely horrid. With this in mind I won't even begin to speculate about next year.

 

 

I can't imagine 2 winters worse than the last 2 here. So, the worst thing that will happen here is that it's as bad as the last 2. Of course, there is still the rest of March and April to turn the tide. 

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5* lock forecast:

 

There will be some days warmer than normal, and a string of days with below normal temps.  There will be 5-10 storm systems that the southeast will track.  For many of us, it will be a devastating close call.  For others, they will see snow.  Wilkes will find a cure for broken skies, and Brick will tell us that the models have to trend in his favor because he is due for a good snow.

 

Take it to the bank.

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