moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Geezus, I know you Mass guys are not effected and this thread is snowcentric but maps Phil posted show basically a hurricane offshore. Not good IMPACTS...MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN PLACES DUE TO CHANGES TO UNDERWATER SLOPES AND/OR LOSS OF PROTECTIVE DUNES BOTH CAUSED BY SANDY. WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS WILL HAMPER RECOVERY E Steve--where'd you pull that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Western CT SNE jackpot on the GFS. But boy--will that be snow along the Jersey shore? Righteous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS looks like crap. Look how the QPF just goes to hell as it moves into SNE. Dynamics start to peter out south of us. Regardless of QPF forecasts I think a slushy 1-2 in the hills is the way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z GFS looks good for a fairly widespread 1-4" snowfall before changing over to sleet or rain for a very large chunk of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS looks like crap. Look how the QPF just goes to hell as it moves into SNE. Dynamics start to peter out south of us. Regardless of QPF forecasts I think a slushy 1-2 in the hills is the way to go right now. Guess you didn't see the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS looks like crap. Look how the QPF just goes to hell as it moves into SNE. Dynamics start to peter out south of us. Regardless of QPF forecasts I think a slushy 1-2 in the hills is the way to go right now. Not sure what folks are expecting... but this doesn't look too bad. I figure at this point people just want to see some flakes and if the ground turns white with a couple inches, that's a big bonus. 1-4" before a change over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z GFS looks good for a fairly widespread 1-4" snowfall before changing over to sleet or rain for a very large chunk of New England. Depending on when it warms up, some areas in NW CT up to Mitch could see a bit more than that I think, Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Guess you didn't see the Euro Tossing GFS and NAM in favor of the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS looks like crap. Look how the QPF just goes to hell as it moves into SNE. Dynamics start to peter out south of us. Regardless of QPF forecasts I think a slushy 1-2 in the hills is the way to go right now. That's gonna happen. It breaks off into two parts. It's cold though, so it turns into a cold ZR or IP perhaps overnight. I think western areas could do fairly well. Maybe 1 to 3 for the hills east of there..highest maybe ORH hills. I do think someone could pull more an inch or two more, but I'm hesitant to go there since mesoscale stuff may be nowcasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Tossing GFS and NAM in favor of the EURO? Who wouldn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Who wouldn't? There really is not a difference between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So if I either leave work tomorrow or wake up thursday morning to some powder on the car I'll call this a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 BOX is playing things pretty meh: Western Franklin: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Cold with highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wednesday Night: Snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet and rain likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation around an inch possible. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Cold. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Northern ORH: Wednesday: Cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning...then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Cold with highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wednesday Night: Snow with sleet likely with rain in the evening...then snow...sleet...rain and freezing rain likely after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Thursday: Rain...snow and freezing rain likely. Patchy fog. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Cold with highs in the upper 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent Tolland Masstif: Wednesday: Cloudy. Rain and snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Blustery and cold with highs around 40. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wednesday Night: Rain...snow and sleet in the evening...then rain and sleet likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Blustery. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Thursday: Rain likely. Patchy fog. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO---anything we get above this we can view as a win. A pretty low bar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Guess you didn't see the Euro Euro is meh too. Pretty paltry QPF per 6 hour interval. Sure it has a wintry appeal but I don't really see much acucmulation in the valleys and even in the hills a sort of blah 1-2 maybe 3 kinda deal. Nice to see the first flakes of the season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 There really is not a difference between the GFS and Euro. Euro is colder. Temp profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If profiles end up that cold, accumulation will happen pretty quick...even with light precip. I'd like to see a big death band, but its just unlikely to happen in this setup. Should be a nice little event though...accumulating snow on Nov 7th is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is colder. Temp profiles It doesn't make a difference to you though is what I mean. This will be a 2-4hr burst of snow, then dryslot I think. However, maybe you can pick another inch or two up with cruddy snowgrowth or bands. As the first band comes through, it may snow quite hard in spots..but this will be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is colder. Temp profiles GFS is really cold too. It has it below freezing here at the sfc at 00ztomorrow evening with 950mb temps around -4C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Depending on when it warms up, some areas in NW CT up to Mitch could see a bit more than that I think, Scott. Yeah I'm just purely speaking of the 18z GFS... you look good through hour 33 and change between hour 33-36. Prior to that, 0.25-0.5" of QPF has fallen. Given what looks like pretty crappy snow growth, I could imagine 8:1 ratios. 3 hours after this panel, the H85 line is up at the VT/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Really keeping expectations in check: STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL LASH SE NEW ENGLAND WED NGT * MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE PSBL FOR THE E MA COAST * WET SNOWS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND AS FAR E AS I-95 * SW-NE BAND OF 1-2 INCH WET SNOW TO IMPACT INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND * POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MINOR ICING WITH STORM EXIT LATE WED NGT-THURS Nice to see anything. Plus, being at freezing before 5:00 off a high of 36 is kind of nice, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6-10 should do it near I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It doesn't make a difference to you though is what I mean. This will be a 2-4hr burst of snow, then dryslot I think. However, maybe you can pick another inch or two up with cruddy snowgrowth or bands. As the first band comes through, it may snow quite hard in spots..but this will be brief. Is it over by Thursday morn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is this all rain here, have not had time to look at models. 40 50 mph gusts about right? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is this all rain here, have not had time to look at models. 40 50 mph gusts about right? Thanks. upton's going all rain with high wind warning, but out of the north....gusts to 45-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Will, what is the ORH snowfall record for Nov 7 (or 8)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If profiles end up that cold, accumulation will happen pretty quick...even with light precip. I'd like to see a big death band, but its just unlikely to happen in this setup. Should be a nice little event though...accumulating snow on Nov 7th is a bonus. Yeah not sure what folks are expecting... another October 2011? I think if you can accumulate snow that's a win on November 7th... someone gets 3" and covers the grass, that's a huge win. I like 1-4", then maybe a little crust on top. Hill tops look pretty cold, so even after H85 freezing line gets ripped NW and dryslot moves in, the hills will probably go to a freezing mist type deal after the band of lift moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is it over by Thursday morn? Pretty much. Maybe a little leftover drizzle or freezing drizzle in the higher spots. Cold raw day Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We will waste some qpf here trying to saturate this dry column dews are 12F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6-10 should do it near I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 temp profiles on the gfs look chilly, looks like snow for all on the GFS for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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