CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know people may throw around AWTs if they happen to get into a good band, but it's difficult to go bullish across the board when models continue to show a lack of a good organized area of prolonged precip. There will be areas that definitely do well..perhaps west MA/CT like we said, but I'm sure other areas may get an extra hour or two where steadier snows linger. If models can wetbulb quick to snow and the euro profile is correct, some towns will probably do better than 3 or 4" in places like central MA..but it's tough to tell. A track like that would at least produce half inch liquid...even with dryslot issues, and I figure a good chunk of that is frozen, so I'm thinking about that as well. The beginning or end might be wasted a bit with rain or ZR. It will be interesting to see how it works out...I can almost guarantee a screw job somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You're such a troll. In many ways worse than Kevin too. At least he tries to be funny about his trolling. The issue is how mangled the dynamics look up this way as the storm fills to our south post-occlusion. It looks like an ugly, banded mess spread out over 18 hours. Not boring for some, I'm sure, but I think it has a disappointing look if people's expectations are an advisory level snow. If expectations are for flakes and some accumulation I think that's reasonable. I actually really agree with this. Dynamics are not great for many outside of the CCB that hits NJ/LI and pivots inland as the system occludes. I think many are disappointed if they think its a widespread advisory level snowfall. I honestly think the CT Valley has a tough time accumulating much before dark. A broad occluding 1000mb low going near/over ACK depending on which model isn't exactly an ideal situation, especially in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS keeps C NH cold enough for snow until about 9z Thu morning. It rips about 1"/hr in S VT eastward to the Monadnocks for a few hours tomorrow evening in that band and weakens as it passes through the Lakes Region. We easily wetbulb into the U20s as the precip starts so it should have no trouble sticking. Snow growth should peak in the band and then it'll trail off to lousy ratios after that before the changeover to FZDZ/DZ. 1-3" sounds good here. mht to con looks good for 1" as well, 2-4 in the hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am sure they do, But the real point was how cold and dry the air mass is I'm not particularly concerned. We need this cold, dry airmass in order to pull off an event this time of year. It may be one of those deals where it doesn't do much until that banding moves in. There is some deep moisture and decent lift with that main show so it could look impressive for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 wow lol, just saw the models and forecasts for eastern pa, nice day to be in the poconos or even philly, good for them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am expecting a band from Pete to Hubb to Maine lays down 3-6 while 1-2 from Will to Kev to Chris Ms parents, winds gusts to 40here 55 on the coast. 3-5 feet of surge, 10 ft waves at the coast, 15-20 offshore. If this continues to phase later on 0Z runs then higher QPF and higher winds. You? I completely agree on your snowfall totals...not sure if there will be that much difference between Hubb and Will though. But then again, I dont know how far apart they live and northern ORH county would probably do a bit better than the southern part. I still think a widespread 1-4" would cover it for the interior, as the precip shield will probably look pretty spotty... could see some highly variable accums depending on who gets under a narrow spot of higher returns. I think it may look showery on the radar presentation after it occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not particularly concerned. We need this cold, dry airmass in order to pull off an event this time of year. It may be one of those deals where it doesn't do much until that banding moves in. There is some deep moisture and decent lift with that main show so it could look impressive for a couple of hours. Again,All i am doing is pointing out how cold it is, I am not questioning that we need it to get snow this time of year, I am saying that its quite impressive cold for this early in nov up this way, We are well below normal temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I completely agree on your snowfall totals...not sure if there will be that much difference between Hubb and Will though. But then again, I dont know how far apart they live and northern ORH county would probably do a bit better than the southern part. I still think a widespread 1-4" would cover it for the interior, as the precip shield will probably look pretty spotty... could see some highly variable accums depending on who gets under a narrow spot of higher returns. I think it may look showery on the radar presentation after it occludes. That's the key. Once this thing occludes and drifts east, I really don't tihnk the dynamics will be there for significant. But before that occurs, there should be a period of SN/SN+ in Northern CT/Mass tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not particularly concerned. We need this cold, dry airmass in order to pull off an event this time of year. It may be one of those deals where it doesn't do much until that banding moves in. There is some deep moisture and decent lift with that main show so it could look impressive for a couple of hours. Yeah even two straight hours of 1/2" per hour snows would look impressive this time of year. As I realized in the snow squalls yesterday morning, any vis below 1sm looks very impressive. I think this will be a fun early season event for a lot of folks... I agree with Will that any measurable accums this time of year is a win. If someone gets 3" and covers the grass, that's a huge win. 3" in your yard this time of year looks like a blizzard, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Where is Tippy? Norfolk Ct might be a good place to chase tomorrow night for ct peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Where is Tippy? Norfolk Ct might be a good place to chase tomorrow night for ct peeps. Currently w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Damn u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Where is Tippy? Norfolk Ct might be a good place to chase tomorrow night for ct peeps. Currently working on a job in Norfolk will take pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Where is Tippy? Norfolk Ct might be a good place to chase tomorrow night for ct peeps. I think Norfolk to Great Barrington,MA (above 1000') will be a good place to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I completely agree on your snowfall totals...not sure if there will be that much difference between Hubb and Will though. But then again, I dont know how far apart they live and northern ORH county would probably do a bit better you than the southern part. I still think a widespread 1-4" would cover it for the interior, as the precip shield will probably look pretty spotty... could see some highly variable accums depending on who gets under a narrow spot of higher returns. I think it may look showery on the radar presentation after it occludes. Just a guess on my part. Other similar setups see that band in that area. If this bombs later and occlusion is slower all bets are off. Do not think we know exactly what the end game is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'll probably be out reporting tomorrow evening for the snow. NW hills or NE hills??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going to miss Sam's big dildo snow maps this year............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'll probably be out reporting tomorrow evening for the snow. NW hills or NE hills??????? Go to Torrington at the top of East Main street! It's like 1.1k and there are a lot of huge parking lots. And it's like a mile from my house so I can see what's going on . Also, very accessible from WH or come to UConn and we can have a beer or 3 at the bars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'll probably be out reporting tomorrow evening for the snow. NW hills or NE hills??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'll probably be out reporting tomorrow evening for the snow. NW hills or NE hills??????? You are so bad lol! Poor Kev, ruggie getting more snow than the Tolland Alps:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going to miss Sam's big dildo snow maps this year............ I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'll probably be out reporting tomorrow evening for the snow. NW hills or NE hills??????? NW FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Also Ryan there is already a 4" base in my backyard, you can use that to exaggerate the totals ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is what happens when you get mets that forecast off the GFS..mass confusion from the folks that need the best info possible Tolland Works These Weather people have it made every channel has a different forecast.(really) . I have it covered. Plows are on the trucks Pickup loaded with cones for closing roads from the wind ... Like · · Share · about an hour ago near Crystal Lake · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is what happens when you get mets that forecast off the GFS..mass confusion from the folks that need the best info possible Tolland Works These Weather people have it made every channel has a different forecast.(really) . I have it covered. Plows are on the trucks Pickup loaded with cones for closing roads from the wind ... Like · · Share · about an hour ago near Crystal Lake · That's why most towns use(and should use) private sector peeps. The place I interned for does a lot of SW CT, and my college does all of Vermont state roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 i mean our DPW director thinks he needs cones to close roads from winds that in reality might gust to 20mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This is what happens when you get mets that forecast off the GFS..mass confusion from the folks that need the best info possible Tolland Works These Weather people have it made every channel has a different forecast.(really) . I have it covered. Plows are on the trucks Pickup loaded with cones for closing roads from the wind ... Like · · Share · about an hour ago near Crystal Lake · I thought you said wind was a non issue? Confused, I let my guard down, even though I have a high wind warning, should I be worried that the KFS has flipped again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 And then you have this..I mean he thinks we're seeing 40-60 mph winds tomorrow. I mean look at the forecast he was given..is that a disaster or what? Some private forecasters(like Will) could make a ton of oney if they could get contracts with the towns and DPW's. Tolland Works Towns can expect light rain mixed with wet snow to begin during the late morning along the coast and spread inland by early afternoon on Wednesday. The precipitation is forecast to become moderate at times by late Wednesday afternoon. A rain / snow line is forecast to become established from Danbury to Middletown and over to Mansfield with wet snow and sleet north of the line and rain mixed with snow and sleet at times south of the line. North Northeast winds are forecast to begin increasing Wednesday morning and are forecast to reach 20 – 35 MPH with gusts to 40 – 60 MPH at times late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 that pickup is loaded for cones for when the trees come down with the 8 inches of paste that will fall after tolland sits in band for 3-4 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 i mean our DPW director thinks he needs cones to close roads from winds that in reality might gust to 20mph FYI our NWS site is back up, maybe public officials paid by tax dollars should take advantage of our tax funded NWS which has access to more data than anyone. FYI they have gusts to 44 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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