dendrite Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gfs south? Following the hurricane models perhaps. Looks the same as 6z to me...just a little later landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NHC made this change a few years ago to speak of inundation. It's clear in the language of their advisory. I know of what I speak here. "STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..." I'm not doubting you... was just surprised. Thanks for the heads up. I wish I knew what their actual surge forecast was to compare with historical benchmarks and expected astro tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Getting out in a moment. USAir rushing to get this out. I'm lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS again looks almost identical to 06z north of ACY but a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That doesn't make any sense... then it's not storm surge. What are some of the limitations associated with the SLOSH model? Does not model astronomical tide explicitly Operational runs can be run at varying water level anomalies to model the water level conditions at the onset of operational runs http://www.nhc.noaa....surge_faq.shtml SLOSH-Display-Training.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yes Roughly where to? I wish you all the best. Hope your neighborhood is spared. Breeze is def picking up. Gusting above 20mph, blowing leaves around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm not doubting you... was just surprised. Thanks for the heads up. I wish I knew what their actual surge forecast was to compare with historical benchmarks and expected astro tide. I think Upton and Boston are providing those details in their Coastal Flood Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS again looks almost identical to 06z north of ACY but a bit stronger. Have noticed the Nhc wind probability progs. They seem to dodge much of the eastern and ne areas. Hoping that's the case and that multiple bad storms in the last few years have taken many of the weakened trees. If anyone in the areas that's going to get hammered bad needs a place to crash for a few days let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think Upton and Boston are providing those details in their Coastal Flood Warnings. Gotcha.. OK thanks. Really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yes Best wishes then and I hope you and yours come through this with minimal damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think Upton and Boston are providing those details in their Coastal Flood Warnings. You are confusing "storm tide" with "storm surge". http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Seems like coastal NJ/NY is in a serious danger at this point. Mass Coast should be thanking their lucky stars this didn't curve another 150 miles north of where it is going to. I hope that the effects in Boston area are lessened by storm veering so far south but I imagine the extra-tropical characteristics will still cause some tropical storm force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 From the Upton coastal flood warning. * TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY AND TONIGHT...2 TO 4 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 10 FT ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO THE MOST FLOOD PRONE COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REACH 6 TO 11 FT. THIS INCLUDES WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think Upton and Boston are providing those details in their Coastal Flood Warnings. Could you clarify what you are saying. I am confused. Is a 7-11 foot surge 7-11 feet above the normal expected tide level? I know the extratropicalstorm surge values run off the GFS were at those ranges this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Seems like coastal NJ/NY is in a serious danger at this point. Mass Coast should be thanking their lucky stars this didn't curve another 150 miles north of where it is going to. I hope that the effects in Boston area are lessened by storm veering so far south but I imagine the extra-tropical characteristics will still cause some tropical storm force winds. The only saving grace is timing of the storm, not really location. But, if winds are more erly Monday Night, potential exists for major coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The only saving grace is timing of the storm, not really location. But, if winds are more erly Monday Night, potential exists for major coastal flooding. So you do not think what I said is valid, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 So you do not think what I said is valid, interesting. What? I am talking about here, not LI Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My man, where you relocating to?, best of luck and keep texting me. Friends house 5 miles inland with a gennie. and limited trees surrounding house, I will stay in touch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You are confusing "storm tide" with "storm surge". http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases. I definitely know the difference. All I am saying is how the NHC is expressing things. From what I have read from local offices, they are providing both surge and total storm tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just checked Liberty Mutual...2% deductible on Hurricane damage ahh yes, slippery mutual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I definitely know the difference. All I am saying is how the NHC is expressing things. From what I have read from local offices, they are providing both surge and total storm tides. You're right... in the advisory they explicitly say the combination of tide and surge will lead to the following depths above ground. The NWS statement though is simply surge and storm tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS is 936mb at LF. WOW...Those low numbers we've been seeing from models is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 945 low on the GGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Flooding already occurred this morning in Watch Hill RI at high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How about the CT river, especially in Middletown. I know the river is tidal all the way to Windsor Locks. How much flooding is expected along the river itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Public horribly misinformed. Someone just said torrington will only feel mile effects compared to the rest of ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Public horribly misinformed. Someone just said torrington will only feel mile effects compared to the rest of ct Probably true though. Leaves off trees... well inland... wind damage may be more limited. Not expecting much river flooding either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 gfs actually look'd about 10miles north at closest pass to sne, (a hair or so) but the WSW movement had begun (earlier) already at hr 36 panal which shows it inland in s central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What? I am talking about here, not LI Sound. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS is 936mb at LF. WOW...Those low numbers we've been seeing from models is real I only have 946mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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