Swanky Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What are thoughts on flights out of KBOS tomorrow. Do you think they shut down at a certain point, or try to keep on sending planes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well it does look more tropical than yesterday....I don't see a reason to dismiss them. Why not ensemble/blend the tropical mods and the global models? The NAM has some convection with the warm front getting whipped in from the SE. LLJ is maximized here too, this should be watched because any sea gull fart will bring hurricane force gusts down if that happened. LOL. I see SPC has "See text" for SNE for tomorrow I want to relate a personal experience and something learned from Irene, hopefully it will stay posted as its relevant. During PS1 the tide never really went out, low tide never came for two cycles. Keep that in mind when thinking about the surge in sounds. A quick hitting cane like Bob or Gloria and the timing of the tide is very important to final surge numbers, a long sustained fetch storm with multiple cycles of tide is a different animal. The lesson learned from Irene was the predicted current speeds of the Oceans waters was very high so the surge was aided, along with being propelled by wind and wave. Current speeds during this full moon are on par. Just something to keep in the back of your mind. Not to mention wave action in this monster is off the hook. Agree totally similar effect in NYC in the Dec 1992 Coastal. 3 tidal cycles were affected and the flooding across the west end of LIS was unbelievable. East River Drive was underwater as well as many of the back bays from Westchester County thru the Bronx and the North Shore of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It even gives me >30kt sustained at 10m as the convection moves through. It looks very Nov 50esque wrt that up here. What are you going with for winds in HFD? Gusts 60-80 statewide. Didn't get cute but indicated the highest would be at the coast... less inland. Maybe by tonight may pin down like a 55-70 inalnd.... 65-80 coast for gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gov Malloy on TWC said he alerting local coastal authorities to expect a cat 4 storm surge into the western sound from the Havens west into Greenwich. (worst case scenario) The state is really just doing a phenomenal job. Literally everything I've heard from towns and the state in terms of storm surge, timing, threats is exactly what I've been talking about. I'm very pleased with how things are going. I think you have to treat this as a worst case scenario surge... fingers crossed it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey no hurricane warnings so everyone will get a break with their windstorm deductible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cut the sh*t and stop deleting those pics. They aren't banter, it's the author making a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey no hurricane warnings so everyone will get a break with their windstorm deductible. hahah...good point. stupid hurricane out of pocket % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gusts 60-80 statewide. Didn't get cute but indicated the highest would be at the coast... less inland. Maybe by tonight may pin down like a 55-70 inalnd.... 65-80 coast for gusts? That's a good range I think. 60s inland, 70s on the coast, maybe 80 on the shore there as winds go more e-ese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 11am disco effectively has a tropical system through about 50 miles from coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My trees are almost bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i haven't moderated since last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 11am disco effectively has a tropical system through about 50 miles from coastline. But no warnings! The inidividual NWS offices have been doing a phenomenal job though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 hahah...good point. stupid hurricane out of pocket % Just checked Liberty Mutual...2% deductible on Hurricane damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The tree and storm impact posts are fine IMO. This afterall is a regional subforum so these local posts regarding impact are justified. As long as we're on topic we're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's a good range I think. 60s inland, 70s on the coast, maybe 80 on the shore there as winds go more e-ese. What is your prediction in terms of wind for the Boston region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just checked Liberty Mutual...2% deductible on Hurricane damage Won't they give you a hard time because there was no "hurricane warning?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is your prediction in terms of wind for the Boston region? I would say 55-65mph gusts with the potential for gusts 70 or higher if we have things like squally showers moving in. The LLJ will be screaming at 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Won't they give you a hard time because there was no "hurricane warning?" I suppose they would maybe treat it as act of God...like a tree falling on a house from a tstm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 latest nhc update increases storm surge into western long island sound to 6-11 feet on top of 3 foot astro tide. Devestating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The surge values posted by NHC already account for the tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The surge values posted by NHC already account for the tide. What do you mean? I thought the surge was on top of the astronomical tide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 considering riding out the storm at roger williams near bristol RI, right on the bay .. i would imagine there could be gusts to hurricane force down there, hopefully my friends dont get evacuated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What do you mean? I thought the surge was on top of the astronomical tide? No, they account for that now. In fact, the values listed in the advisory are for inundation above ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What do you mean? I thought the surge was on top of the astronomical tide? "Surge" is surge. Surge+Tide is "Storm Tide" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The surge values posted by NHC already account for the tide. :/ I don't believe they do.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 latest nhc update increases storm surge into western long island sound to 6-11 feet on top of 3 foot astro tide. Devestating Are you evacuating your home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No, they account for that now. In fact, the values listed in the advisory are for inundation above ground level. That doesn't make any sense... then it's not storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Are you evacuating your home? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That doesn't make any sense... then it's not storm surge. The NHC made this change a few years ago to speak of inundation. It's clear in the language of their advisory. I know of what I speak here. "STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gfs south? Following the hurricane models perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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