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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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chapelhillwx

chapelhillwx

Posted
Posted

Here are a couple pics from my little snow chase.

Mars Hill, NC -- Pouring down snow, temp 34, not quite sticking!

615593_4108191381888_1478723270_o.jpg

Then we drove to near Wolf Laurel, NC. Like 3 miles from the border. By this time it was 30 degrees or so and extremely windy with heavy small flakes that looked almost like fog. Amazing what 6 or 7 miles up the Interstate can do.

Hard to tell in the picture but it was snowing pretty hard! I almost spun off the road here and I had AWD so it was time to turn around.

52746_4107619327587_1632619920_o.jpg

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

27" in Beckley WV. 18" in Bluefield. 14" in Charleston, WV. The WV turnpike is a mess I assure you. Not sure you can say snow totals underperformed in WV if you have 27" in Beckley and its still snowing!

Wow...LOL that is not an underperformer. I was just looking at the radar up there and was not impressed with the presentation as I thought much heavier returns would wrap further south by now.

We shall see in NC....

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

Wow...LOL that is not an underperformer. I was just looking at the radar up there and was not impressed with the presentation as I thought much heavier returns would wrap further south by now.

We shall see in NC....

Hey folks, I spoke too soon. I was pulling reports from the news tonight and I think the amounts I show are the FORECAST amounts. Not actual amounts. Sorry for the confusion.

I'll go pull actuals now and to Motoweatherman's credit, he is probably right that the storm has underperformed with snow totals.

bag.gif

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

27" in Beckley WV. 18" in Bluefield. 14" in Charleston, WV. The WV turnpike is a mess I assure you. Not sure you can say snow totals underperformed in WV if you have 27" in Beckley and its still snowing!

Where are you seeing these totals?

Here's what I see from Charleston, WV NWS:

Beckley - 3 in, 800PM, Airport

The two highest totals I see are:

Snowshoe - 7 in, 730PM, CO-OP Observer

Bowden (4 mi ENE) - 14 in, Trained Spotter

The heaviest snow moves through West Virginia through the night tonight, but continues through late Tuesday night.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Hey folks, I spoke too soon. I was pulling reports from the news tonight and I think the amounts I show are the FORECAST amounts. Not actual amounts. Sorry for the confusion.

I'll go pull actuals now and to Motoweatherman's credit, he is probably right that the storm has underperformed with snow totals.

bag.gif

Yes you are right it's the forecast totals!!! I saw same thing..

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

One good thing about Sandy, Sugar Mtn will be open on Halloween Day: Currently 23 up top and 25 at the base with the snow guns on and natural fallen from sky.

Sugar Mountain Ski Resort plans to open on Halloween, Wednesday, October 31 for skiing and snowboarding. In its 43 year history, Sugar Mountain Resort’s earliest opening was on November 5th in 1976.

The mega storm, Sandy, which continues to pound the East Coast is ushering in winter in the North Carolina Mountains. Several inches of natural snow have fallen already with eight inches plus expected. Snow continues to fall while temperatures are forecasted to remain in the low to mid-twenties through Wednesday.

Snowmaking began Sunday evening, October 28th and continues around the clock. On Wednesday, skiers and snowboarders can expect a natural and manmade powder surface covering the Upper and Lower Flying Mile slopes. The Summit #1 Lift will be in operation to the ¾’s station. For a real time look at the slopes through the live, streaming web cam please log on to www.skisugar.com/sugarlive.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
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Wow...LOL that is not an underperformer. I was just looking at the radar up there and was not impressed with the presentation as I thought much heavier returns would wrap further south by now.

We shall see in NC....

2 inches in Boone...4-5 inches in Ashe County at 4,000ft....3 hours ago. I think this has always been a elevation storm. I don't see reports for elevations higher than that, that were really suppose to get dumped on.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

just listened to a met say the storm would basically stall over central PA or Northern VA for the next 48 hours or so. I haven't really paid attention to any models today on the next 2-4 days. Anyone know what the general trends are for movement? If Sandy sits and spins for 48 hours we could easily see heavy snow totals in the VA/NC mountains.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow morning we will get an update from LeConte. They already had 7.5 inches this morning, I'll be surprised if they don't have 20" on the ground tomorrow morning. Looks like they have gotten strong flow snows all day long.

We'll find out. I've been looking at the radar and it hasn't really let up all day - and the really heavy moisture comes in tomorrow.

It started out as a forecast of up to a few inches, then up to 17", then up to 24", and now I think the last forecast I saw up to 35-40".

They could get 4 feet out of this.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Was reading the Charleston, WV disco, and they mentioned MOS was keeping the boundary layer too warm for low elevation snow...I checked NAM and GFS MOS for Bristol, and indeed the sfc temps are in the mid-30 to low-40 range for overnight Mon and Tues. Not sure of the MOS bias at this timerange, but that would be a deal breaker obviously if it's correct. I wonder if that's what Morristown is banking on.

It looks like MOS is taking the model output to the woodshed at Tri-Cities...at least that's the case with GFS MOS. Looking at the NAM, GFS, NAM MOS, and GFS MOS, the NAM and GFS are running some 4 degrees too cold at the surface, and NAM MOS is running some 4 degrees too warm...but GFS MOS closely resembles the surface temps at the moment. GFS MOS has surface wet bulb temps in the 33-35 deg range overnight into early morning Tues, before warming some. It does have the precip type switchover to snow overnight, then back to rain in the morning hours. Bottom line, not a good looking temp setup at the surface. Hard to imagine more than very light accumulations.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow thru Wed. is the time the snow starts to crank up the totals. It is suppose to stall in lower PA. I dont know about 48hrs. but that maybe correct. What is happening in New York is unbelievable! The winds have really started picking up here also.

just listened to a met say the storm would basically stall over central PA or Northern VA for the next 48 hours or so. I haven't really paid attention to any models today on the next 2-4 days. Anyone know what the general trends are for movement? If Sandy sits and spins for 48 hours we could easily see heavy snow totals in the VA/NC mountains.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Actually the models had the heaviest QPF between now and noon tomorrow with a drop off in QPF after that time frame. I know the nw flow could still win out in the end but I think the lights out totals that were being progged in wv are in jeopardy as the radar presentation does not support the modeled QPF that was being shown. Maybe that will all change and it could but it is underperforming on the front end when the QPF was supposed to be the best.

Maybe I'm wrong and I hope I am because I'm all for a big storm.

On another note...my temp has been rising the past hour.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

It looks like MOS is taking the model output to the woodshed at Tri-Cities...at least that's the case with GFS MOS. Looking at the NAM, GFS, NAM MOS, and GFS MOS, the NAM and GFS are running some 4 degrees too cold at the surface, and NAM MOS is running some 4 degrees too warm...but GFS MOS closely resembles the surface temps at the moment. GFS MOS has surface wet bulb temps in the 33-35 deg range overnight into early morning Tues, before warming some. It does have the precip type switchover to snow overnight, then back to rain in the morning hours. Bottom line, not a good looking temp setup at the surface. Hard to imagine more than very light accumulations.

It does look like MOS is doing a good job....I was wrong, I would have thought the raw data would have been better.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

We've been getting some more "moderate" light rain here. Radar shows melting snow aloft, but it's too warm at the surface for anything to make it through, not even a lone snowflake. Wind has been whistling through the window screens, but nothing too bad. We did lose power earlier today in this area for about an hour. Probably a stray limb that went the wrong way. No widespread reports of power outages.

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