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Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog. First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity. It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean. TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air. Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday. This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon. This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection. Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system. Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it. Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning. Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.
Considering we have recon heading in later today and this should be a fairly high-impact system regardless if it manages to develop, I figured this deserves its own thread now. Most of the models are showing parts of Texas getting inundated once again. There has been one thing that has caught my eye though, the hi-res models (including the newly upgraded 2km HWRF) all show 91L intensifying just before it makes landfall in Texas. This could be an interesting situation as the models, including the ECMWF, all show an upper level air pattern that would support this to maintain a decent structure well-inland. The HWRF has an Erin type of situation for Oklahoma.