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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

GFS is freaking out with how "Sandy" might interact with that big Low in the ATL. and how it interacts with the trof coming in. IMO this will hook back into the US, it just depends on where it does.

No way to hide it, the GFS just struggles in the 3-7 day range...we see it time and time again where it is out to lunch with large scale storm evolution. It's like it has to go through these little baby steps before it comes around to the rest of the modeling world.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Amazing model output for the 12z GFS operational run. It Takes Sandy into newengland now but creates a pressure so strong that it starts out with upslope snow for the Apps all the way into TN, then snow breaks out into upstate PA and WV and slowly as the cold air wraps into the system rain changes to snow through the NYC metro area and then from the south into New England. According to the GFS, if you're in east MA, you could see heavy rain with a northerly wind to start then rain changing to snow as the wind goes southerly.

There's some serious model consensus going on and the GFS has finally woken up to the possibility.

We may have a mess on our hands.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

GFS is freaking out with how "Sandy" might interact with that big Low in the ATL. and how it interacts with the trof coming in. IMO this will hook back into the US, it just depends on where it does.

The hook and the bend back it will take is gonna be the interesting scenerio with that mega block. I just wish it would phase quicker and make landfall if you will in the Deleware/NJ area. Then we could at a minimum get in the car or atleast hear testimonies from some of our SE members in the high country/East TN/SW VA talk about snow. Im thinking the models are a little slow with the timing on this. I'm in the camp there will be a phase but futher north (New England) because by the time northern energy gets involved , sandy will have progressed a little futher northbound then the Euro depicitions. But kudos to the euro and lesser extent Can if all this comes to fruition.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

I wonder if the mountains will get any upslope snow from this. Snowshoe probably gets hammered.

The Euro? YES.

The GFS? YES.

GFS Ensembles? YES.

If the models are right then the favored upslope areas in WV would get hammered, and upslope snow would happen as far south as the Smoky Mountains.

Places in WV would see up to a foot or more. The Smoky Mountains could see 1-6" above 5500'.

This is not an official forecast. This is blending model output with how topography works around here.

That being said, with the latest Euro output it looks like snow showers could happen all the way down to the valley in Knoxville on the west side of the Apps.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
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Is the Euro still th eonly one showing this has a huge event? I thought most of the model runs showed it staying out to sea. I know some runs of the Euro have it going out to sea some when it gets past NC but then hanging a left and slamming into the New York area. Are some of the other models coming around to the scenario? If so, then I guess I was premature in saying I think it's going to head out to sea. I am just used to these extreme solutions on the models never coming to happen.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Just announced, ALL NWS offices will be launching balloons every 6 hrs for the next few days to better handle Sandy.

Yep

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION

EVOLVES..

EURO smashes Norfolk to Atlantic City.....Cold shot for ALL of us!

Yay :lol::P

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