snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 In terms of interior NY, such as the Hudson Valley what would be the effects based on a track through LI or near NYC? Just wondering, since I won't be in the city but in New Paltz. Tropical storm force winds/Flooding rains & power outages are inevitable with a track like this. Not sure if you were up here for Irene but it was pretty bad and that will be a walk in the park in comparison simply cause of the longevity of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GGEM is a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 People will downplay this because of all the hype from Irene that turned out to be far less significant than the hype. This storm could easily not be as strong as the models suggest but they are very consistent with its intensity this far out and storms have a tendency to be even stronger than models indicate. I know it's not a good example to compare the strength of Sandy now to the models depiction of it because it will be a completely different storm once it gets further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I came out to LI today and the trees are significantly more along here than in the 5 boroughs and especially NYC...I'd say in SE Nassau we are over 50% and some are defoliating pretty well...it will save us somewhat I think, not as if it was 2-3 weeks form now but we'll be a nose better off than if it was summer...the tree in front of my parent's house here is about a quarter or more leaf dropped so to speak. My trees in Northern NJ are still probably 75-80% full. I've barely had anything come down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GGEM is a monster I only see it through 72 so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My trees in Northern NJ are still probably 75-80% full. I've barely had anything come down yet. The maples seem only starting but the oaks here are all brown and leaves are coming off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know this is not Mt Holly region but this is their briefing updated today: Changes from previous briefing • The likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours. • The potential for the storm to still retain tropical characteristics (e.g., extremely heavy rainfall rates, a core of very strong winds) when it reaches our region has increased over the past 24 hours. • Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region: • Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GGEM Gets down to 938 just south of LI. Brooklyn landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The irony if Sandy makes landfall at Sandy Hook? So I guess I wasn't the only one thinking that then. XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM takes this right into NY Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With all due respect, I volunteer NJ OEM. I also am a firefighter so I'll be on the front lines during this storm. I always preach to assume the worst case scenario until otherwise. That means preparing now and getting people evacuated before it's too late. I would rather over prepare and have the storm miss than have a single person die because I didn't think conditions would be as bad as forecasted. The bottom line is people need to stop assuming that just because they don't think a scenario is likely or just because it hasn't happened in there lifetime it isn't going to happen. The Euro, and as shocking as it may be, the NOAGPS have been locked in on this for days and days and the other models for the most part have been playing catch up. Assuming no major changes on the GGEM/UKIE/ECMWF 12z runs we are starting to form a general consensus. Agree with this statement 100%. Some people will indeed take this storm lightly unfortunately because of what happened with Irene around here. (And remember the Nogaps now has 4dvar like the Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What's the range in the time frame this starts, when does it begin, when would we see the worst, and how far away are we from the event. Is it still 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is meters/second, but do the math, double the value, and is is very close to knots. ~60 knots around Montauk. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z Ukmet @ 120hrs has a 945mb just SE of ACK heading NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM takes this right into NY Harbor rides the southshore into NY harbor..incredible..well time to get candles and gas for my car so I can charge my cellphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still 4 days for course correction, probably south, which may actually worsen the conditions for the metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS go right into the harbor as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS support an SW LI to NYC or so landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is ridiculous. Two left exit regions and two right entrance regions pretty much collocated at Sandy's location. I drew the jet streak directions in green and labeled left exit with LEx and right entrance with REn. The jet east of Maine is an EASTERLY jet which makes that region a left exit region. Pretty incredible. I do not think a 940mb low is out of the cards, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What's the worst case for the metro, the storm moving nnw into central nj? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Tropical storm force winds/Flooding rains & power outages are inevitable with a track like this. Not sure if you were up here for Irene but it was pretty bad and that will be a walk in the park in comparison simply cause of the longevity of this system Thanks man. Yeah I was in New Paltz during Irene, and we didn't do too well. So I cannot imagine Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Central Jersey landfall from the SE has to be a 200 hundred or more year event! Watching history here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS support an SW LI to NYC or so landfall. Looked like a NYC/NE NJ landfall to me around Sandy Hook, but close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is ridiculous. Two left exit regions and two right entrance regions pretty much collocated at Sandy's location. I drew the jet streak directions in green and labeled left exit with LEx and right entrance with REn. The jet east of Maine is an EASTERLY jet which makes that region a left exit region. Pretty incredible. I do not think a 940mb low is out of the cards, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looked like a NYC/NE NJ landfall to me around Sandy Hook, but close enough Yeah tough to tell because of resolution and spread but does not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is incredible. I'm making plans already for evacuation, so I'm not doing it last minute. (On the 1/2 mile from coastline and 10 miles N of Sandy Hook.) General public seems to think this isn't going to be much of anything. Most people don't even know it's happening. This doesn't seem like too much of a rain event. What are the chances Newark airport will be shut down on Tuesday morning? I have an in-law that's supposed to fly out and I'm praying they don't get stranded..... I'm still in shock looking at what's progged on model date right now. It's such a rare depiction that it's difficult to buy into, but when was the last time we saw a -2 SD negative NAO in conjunction with a northward propagating hurricane and amplifying/neg titled short wave trough simultaneously approaching the East Coast. The answer is it happens maybe once or twice a century on average. The fact that we're even discussing a NW vector to this hurricane as it approaches the Northeast is very rare. We also have an incredible amount of baroclinic energy with the deepening mid latitude trough which will help maintain or prevent Sandy from weakening rapidly as it propagates NW. I'm in PA right now (figures); I'd love to be back in Monmouth to ride this one out. Yeah I don't think the shore towns in NJ have any idea of the potential right now. Now that the capture idea is becoming very likely, it's going to be a question of where does it make landful on the Northeast coast. Saving grace for NJ would be a LI or northeast landfaul, where we'd be talking mainly strong NWLY winds, limiting surge and flooding, but still probably wind damage and power outages due to the large wind field. The Tuesday morning flight will probably be cancelled if those winds verify.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm looping all the progs, and just looping them....and looping them....just can't believe what is about to transpire, meteorologically speaking....Hopefully we can capture as much research data as possible.....great call by the folks at NOAA for the off hour balloon launches.....We need to maximize ALL research tools that we can muster.....for the use for future generations when this MAY occur again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My first EM board meeting is tomorrow. I'm going to have to convey the potential impact of this system. Gonna be a long night of research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.