adelphi_sky Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mean looks to be in the realm of Atlantic City. Given that model spread I would agree that central to southern NJ looks to be a good spot for the mean with an emphasis on southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mean looks to be in the realm of Atlantic City. A lot of folks in the NE forum are predicting a western LI landfall, while it's early, i'm not sure there is much support for that. CM to Sandy Hook looks to be the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 you should at least factor in that a lot of those models are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A lot of folks in the NE forum are predicting a western LI landfall, while it's early, i'm not sure there is much support for that. CM to Sandy Hook looks to be the place. Of course they are predicting a western LI landfall...that benefits them the most. I still don't see the model support for that. Southern NJ seems to be the mean right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A lot of folks in the NE forum are predicting a western LI landfall, while it's early, i'm not sure there is much support for that. CM to Sandy Hook looks to be the place. I'm sure at least one guy up there is predicting landfall in Tolland, CT with 150 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Of course they are predicting a western LI landfall...that benefits them the most. I still don't see the model support for that. Southern NJ seems to be the mean right now. Who is most? More like one person. LI is still in the cone..imo, especially wrn LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 you should at least factor in that all a lot of those models are garbage. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Fixed Not all of them... some of them might be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Fixed well all the globals are north of those models just about. their mean is closer to northern nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not all of them... some of them might be You know more than me because i do not follow tropical weather closely, but according to what i was reading most of them are junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 well all the globals are north of those models just about. their mean is closer to northern nj. If i was a betting man i would say landfall would be between central NJ and just west of NYC, but what the hell do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 From Scott: Ec ensembles Sandy hook. Slower and a little north of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... .THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...TO INTERACT WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WVZ038-046-047-270400- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0004.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/ WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COWEN...MARLINTON...ELKINS 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...WEBSTER COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL START LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS... CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME VERY SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER WINDWARD TERRAIN. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOWER 30S UPPER VALLEYS...RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 you should at least factor in that a lot of those models are garbage. Agreed. Take it with a heavy grain of salt here. It's just something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 When do the EURO ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Other notable change was the Euro caved to the GFS in terms of not wrapping the thermal profile so tight on the back side such that even with a further north track any snow east of the mtns is now off the table. At least we can put that part to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro ensembles are almost due west to like Belmar NJ or so..give or take 20 miles from model graphic resolution. Then go west near I-78 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 you should at least factor in that a lot of those models are garbage. Good point, since the GFS and Euro have tons of historical experience dealing with a captured ET cyclone under super strong blocking scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What are those models? http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not all of them... some of them might be Congrats....My friend told me at lunch that he quoted a post of your in an email....It was your standard C&P, but still....you have secret fans...congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Joe Bastardi just said on Fox News that it could be a cat 2 or even cat 3 on Sunday before weakining some . Of course he also said there will be significant power outages from DC to Boston, amazing how that is always his area of the worst effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's quite a storm for DC. Don't forget there is a strong NW LLJ coinciding with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Congrats....My friend told me at lunch that he quoted a post of your in an email....It was your standard C&P, but still....you have secret fans...congrats Unless it was on CWG in which I posted that one line on their FB... I dunno where else that would be from... but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Good point, since the GFS and Euro have tons of historical experience dealing with a captured ET cyclone under super strong blocking scenarios. They should still handle it better than the LBAR. This kind of scenario does happen from time to time just not where it's supposed to this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Other notable change was the Euro caved to the GFS in terms of not wrapping the thermal profile so tight on the back side such that even with a further north track any snow east of the mtns is now off the table. At least we can put that part to bed now. It was off the table from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ensemble mean from 12z EURO is near Sandy Hook into C NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It was off the table from the start. I agree but as long as some model was still showing it we would have Ji asking every 6 hours "what track do we need to get snow?". At least this should end that speculation and we can focus on the real impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The majority of these tracks will give us a pretty significant event. 12Z GFS with its wide turn and more north landfall still yielded this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The majority of these tracks will give us a pretty significant event. 12Z GFS with its wide turn and more north landfall still yielded this: Central MD with the bullseye of wind gusts, wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The majority of these tracks will give us a pretty significant event. 12Z GFS with its wide turn and more north landfall still yielded this: 60-80 mph gusts is impressive for being this far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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