yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting the new NHC maps don't reflect Sandy as post-tropical at any point. That must be an error, no? NHC disco says 96 and 120 hr positions are post-tropical... I dont think they have a color for it (white for ET) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 An interesting note in the nhc discussion shows the dropsonded data is showing the flightlevel winds are "significantly less than near the surface". Can a met explain why this is happening. If this is banter I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The latest threshold for a watch is 48 hours right? Trigger will be pulled tomorrow am. NHC needs to be absolutely sure on this one. No surprise that we aren't in it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GFS seemingly shifts NW by hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Here comes the large QPF wall at hr 66 on the 00z GFS from the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I can't really tell on this map but looks like a 965mb coming ashore somewhere along the northern part of the Jersey shore - sandy hook? Probably someone with better maps can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the GFS drowns us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Snow showers Tuesday evening into overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hey guys here is our latest thoughts on Sandy. Due to the lesser curve now noted by the models. 12hrs would have to be shaved off the 5pm NJ plot. Sandy means business Hello all, Sandy continues to move northward tonight with winds just above hurricane force at 75mph, with higher gusts. Overall, the storm is exhibiting characteristics much like those of an extratropical cyclone, and as labeled by the National Hurricane Center earlier today, the transition is already under way. The storm, which was previously moving northward at quite a fast pace through the southern and further north into the central Bahamas has slowed significantly, and came almost to a temporary stall off the coast of Florida. The winds, which as stated are at 75mph now, should continue to press northward at a slower pace, 7-12mph. The storm looks the way it does now because of wind shear that is displacing the center of circulation from the convection, though this situation is something not uncharacteristic for storms like Sandy, especially those transitioning into a hybrid or extratropical cyclone. The storm should continue on that northerly heading as described for the next few days, with a jog to the east occurring Sunday. Though the storm will be off Cape Hatteras by that time, clouds associated with the storm, and even showers will begin impacting the area on Sunday morning with the best chances for rain coming to southeast areas Sunday evening. Sunday will be the least impact many see from Sandy, with Monday and Tuesday beng the days where the brunt of the effects are felt. Many are worried and are bringing up situations like Isabel or Irene in terms of impact. In relation to those storms, there are ways to compare Sandy or its hybrid low that could surprise certain people. For those in places west of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, the storm surge will not be nearly as bad as Isabel considering the track of the storm will be north and east of the area. The winds however, will rival those of Isabel, and many places along the interstate 95 corridor will receive winds that exceed of Isabel. The highest wind gusts registered at the local airports across the Maryland area averaged the 50-65 mile per hour range. However, as you see on our map below, the highest wind gusts for the area could exceed hurricane force, with some isolated gusts touching 80mph. The reason for this is because of the extreme winds residing just above the surface Monday and Tuesday. This coupled with heavy rains and advecting cold air from the northwest could bring some of these extreme winds to the surface, producing the aforementioned winds. In addition, the rainfall in both Irene and Isabel is not to be compared with Sandy as the storm will have much slower movement, producing rainfall totals over 8'' in the Baltimore metropolitan areas with parts of the Delmarva up into New Jersey receiving over 10 inches and up to one foot of rainfall. This will promote freshwater flooding in the areas that are not east of the storm, making for a dangerous scene nonetheless. For those that are in the way of the storm though on the eastern side, the surge that could rival the Long Island Express of 1938 thanks to slow movement and the piling of the water will be corresponding with the full moon, maximizing the astronomical tides on top of the storm surge. The storm surge in Long Island sound coudl be equatable almost to a category two hurricane on the scale. Regardless, New York city needs to take precautions on the subway to make sure they do not get flooded out admist torrential downpours. This even applies to rural areas with leaves clogging the storm drains as the trees are shedding their leaves this time of year. The places most at risk for this lie further to the south where the foliage is near peak season, such as Baltimore and Washington DC. Many areas have many trees falling from the trees, and many leaves additionally leading to stoppages and flooding via clogged drainages. One must keep in mind a combination of the very heavy and consistent rainfall from this storm coupled with the winds in a system like this spread hundreds of miles from the center, with the strongest winds as of this point looking to be just north of the center as well as to the southwest of the center. The storm will have a very large windfield overall, and that is to blame for the extraordinary duration of the tropical storm conditions likely to be faced in the megalopolis. There will likely be winds gusting over 40-50mph all the way from DC to Boston all at the same time. The threat of snowfall however, is still not to be forgotten, and the threat should continue to exist for snowfall heading into the early and middle week. The only place that is really likely to see snow for the time being is West Virginia in the Appalachian Mountains including Snowshoe ski resort where the total snowfall could range from 10 to 15 inches overall. Some isolated areas could even see 2 feet or snow or more. This brings me to my next question, should any of the big cities expect snow on the back side? In many instances, people would expect a storm like this to produce snow on the back end, however in this instance there is simply not enough cold air to do it in this case, though more recent runs have taken temperatures for Baltimore down into the mid 30's with the chance of a few flakes mixing in towards places north of Frederick and a bit of snow into the mountains near Emmittsburg, Maryland. Stay tuned for the latest complete details as the storm approaches. 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Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I can't really tell on this map but looks like a 965mb coming ashore somewhere along the northern part of the Jersey shore - sandy hook? Probably someone with better maps can see. still pretty far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 still pretty far north 900mb winds are that strong? Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 900mb winds are that strong? Dang! ct get wiped off the map .. again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ct get wiped off the map .. again We are rocking as well. I for sure see sustained winds 30-40mph.. maybe 50mph with gust to 60-70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GEFS blast us with rain and wind... landfall C NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like it came south a tad from 18z perhaps...very minimal though. I'll probably stay up for the Euro. Getting some good cpa studying in now believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro is big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro is big This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How big we talkin' here Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Probably 940ish into Delaware then basically due west. Low parks over DC late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So the Euro is back to the southern solution. Another day of model watching ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Low still over DC at 90.. just weakening overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Landfall S NJ on the Euro. We're down to less than 75 miles between the major global's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If you run a loop of the Euro after landfall it just looks like a dissipating ripple from throwing a rock in the water with DC about center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 850 temps look to be considerably warmer on this Euro run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How does the snow chances look for the Southern and Central Apps, NW NC up to WVA? According to the 00z GFS Snowshoe looked in the Bullseye for over a foot, but with a further south track, maybe areas around Blacksburg, and Boone, NC are in the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 this is a bit before landfall it's pretty much going west at that pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This thing will be big enough at landfall that it hardly seems to matter where exactly it hits the coast. We are in for a long day of wind and rain no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What a frikin monster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 At least 600 miles in diameter. What a hellacious windfield. Outer Banks to Cape Cod west to West Virginia and Ohio - and all points in between - all at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gefblueapple Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 anyone have some raw rn #'s for DC on the 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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