CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 Lol..it looks nothing like that It's a weekly mean, you'll never gauge that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 It's a weekly mean, you'll never gauge that. I'll take the ensembles la la la locking in cold..over the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 that is one thing last year didn't have alot of, CUTTERS, (at least i think NNE ski resorts enjoyed that aspect) Yeah but on the flip side it was a pretty dry winter... if we had last winter plus a weekly cutter to Toronto that would've really taken the winter to a new level. It could be something like I mentioned a few days ago. You get a cutter, then the cold moves further east. Another low develops and perhaps is colder...followed by deeper push of cold east. Maybe it repeats, or perhaps we stay on the battle zone. You had the idea in your post. It's also possible that if we see any tropical cyclone move east, it locks in the cold for several days. I really don't mind that sort of pattern in the fall. It seems to be a more "normal" progression of fall weather to have the core of cold develop in central Canada and into the Midwest...I'd love to see a few strong low pressure systems develop out of that, too. It seems like the good winters usually start off with a few big midwest or Great Lakes snowstorms while the cold gets established, and then it slowly gets tugged east after each passing low (like you said). If we start to see a pattern like that develop, I'll be excited because you know sooner or later that baroclinic zone will find its way to the east coast. I just want to see a steady stream of energy and good sized storms over the next 6 weeks, even if we are on the rain side. Seeing a stormy pattern develop could set the stage for an exciting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 I'll take the ensembles la la la locking in cold..over the weeklies You're missing the point. The ensembles only go through 11/2. I'm just speculating what the weeklies might be trying to go for. In a gradient pattern...even at the end of the ensembles, you still can have storms move near Andy Tandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Lol..it looks nothing like that Scooter just said a very similar thing that I did. I have a hard time believing we don't see a couple strong cutters if the core of the cold is moving down the east slopes of the Rockies. That doesn't scream early season snow in New England...to me is says we may have to put up with a little bit of rain followed by cold/dry... cold down east slope of Rockies usually leads to cyclogenesis in the Mississippi River Valley area riding towards the Lakes. But maybe you see something different, as is usually the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 You're missing the point. The ensembles only go through 11/2. I'm just speculating what the weeklies might be trying to go for. In a gradient pattern...even at the end of the ensembles, you still can have storms move near Andy Tandy. Ok..then give me a white 40th on Novie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 61 balmy night, more huge departures on the way in this muted torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 What a weekend on the way! Sunny 70 Saturday 65 Sunday............great for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I change it 4x a year..Noone likes the same old stale avatar over and over and over again Avatar change is meh, Change your screen name if you really have some kahunas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AROD is already there At least he went out with a .............whimper, Go Marlins!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Dryslut you in there? Hows the shoulder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Weeklies looked seasonable for the first half of November. Looked like an overall Aleutian height anomaly with coldest air sloshing down from east slopes of Canadian Rockies into nrn Plains. At some point it has to come east........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 At some point it has to come east........ Pattern change starts Nov 10, complete by Nov 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Pattern change starts Nov 10, complete by Nov 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 My daughter named the skeleton "torchey"....how appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Weeklies looked seasonable for the first half of November. Looked like an overall Aleutian height anomaly with coldest air sloshing down from east slopes of Canadian Rockies into nrn Plains. Sure beats last year at this time when there was nothing but torch into November in the weeklies..i think from late October thru March all I heard was torch,torch,torch..sorry to say they were very accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Pattern change starts Nov 10, complete by Nov 25 I feel like I've read that somewhere before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 At some point it has to come east........ True but in a modified form. Perhaps significantly modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 True but in a modified form. Perhaps significantly modified. Early on sure, We are not talking vodka cold yet, All depends on the source region and how cold the airmass is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Good luck with the move. Where abouts? Hopefully the low will find a home SW in the Aleutians. I'm moving just a little bit south into Mount Laurel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I'm moving just a little bit south into Mount Laurel. That little bit south is often the line in NJ as you know between big snows and not much. Plus you're in Philly fan territory now..ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 That little bit south is often the line in NJ as you know between big snows and not much. Plus you're in Philly fan territory now..ouch. In 2009-10 I was in NW NJ and watched the PHL area get pounded with storm after storm. I remember when the sun broke out up there during the big Dec 09 storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 In 2009-10 I was in NW NJ and watched the PHL area get pounded with storm after storm. I remember when the sun broke out up there during the big Dec 09 storm, lol. Yeah 2009-10 was a helluva winter in the PHL area. 2-3ft of snowpack in mid February, two storms back to back 20"+. I lucked out being in the PHL area for the Feb 2010 events and CNJ for the Dec 09 event, so I managed to experience 3 HECS that winter. Were you in CNJ for the Feb 2010 storms? If we want PHL to do well this year someone needs to start dumping molten rock in the central pacific. Mod Ninos tend to be better for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Yeah 2009-10 was a helluva winter in the PHL area. 2-3ft of snowpack in mid February, two storms back to back 20"+. I lucked out being in the PHL area for the Feb 2010 events and CNJ for the Dec 09 event, so I managed to experience 3 HECS that winter. Were you in CNJ for the Feb 2010 storms? If we want PHL to do well this year someone needs to start dumping molten rock in the central pacific. Mod Ninos tend to be better for the mid atlantic. I was in NW NJ the entire winter and missed all the HECS. However, I was also in the New Brunswick area and saw decent snow out of the FEB storm. I will be in the Mercer-Burlington area throughout the winter, so it is no big deal. This system looks like a west-based El Niño to me and if that combines with the Siberian Snow Cover and QBO, it could make for a long winter. It will be no 09-10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Avatar change is meh, Change your screen name if you really have some kahunas Your name change will please my wife, Jeff. She always found your old one just a bit disturbing. Looks like a wet one is in store. Methinks I might have a leaf in my collection bucket-- but perhaps the sound of the rain on the leaf cover suggests a heavier rain than actually is taking place. Toasty--51/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AMOUT...not a mild week next week. Even on the gold coast of S CT. Cold is winning..We are winners MON THROUGH THU... LONG WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND OFFERS A SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET YIELDING TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REGION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS AS BOTH THE NAO AND AO BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLC REGION FROM ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AMOUT...not a mild week next week. Even on the gold coast of S CT. Cold is winning..We are winners MON THROUGH THU... LONG WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND OFFERS A SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET YIELDING TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REGION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS AS BOTH THE NAO AND AO BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLC REGION FROM ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND I'm going to Phoenix Monday for a week long work related trip. I expect dramatically different wx upon my return late day 10/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I'm going to Phoenix Monday for a week long work related trip. I expect dramatically different wx upon my return late day 10/28. The 2 year warm pattern is over...It's been a long wait..But it's finally over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AMOUT...not a mild week next week. Even on the gold coast of S CT. Cold is winning..We are winners MON THROUGH THU... LONG WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND OFFERS A SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET YIELDING TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REGION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS AS BOTH THE NAO AND AO BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLC REGION FROM ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND LL Cool Libations is Mid Atlantic ... continued thong traipsing as he mows clients lawns into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 AMOUT...not a mild week next week. Even on the gold coast of S CT. Cold is winning..We are winners MON THROUGH THU... LONG WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND OFFERS A SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET YIELDING TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REGION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS AS BOTH THE NAO AND AO BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLC REGION FROM ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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